The transfer window has closed, and we now (more or less) know the squad that will compete in the 2023-24 season under Sean Dyche. Before the window opened, I wrote an article setting out a few priorities and the sorts of gettable players who might fit the bill. In order of priorities, I felt we needed:
1. A striker of quality to compete with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, not just cover his absences
2. A centre-back of quality to replace Mina (and support the development of Branthwaite)
3. A winger or forward to give us different options in attack
4. An extra body in midfield to bolster the squad
5. Full-back cover
The point of all of this was to secure a mid-table finish, rather than a third nail-biting relegation fight in succession. The challenge was to do this with possibly the weakest financial position of any clubs apart from Luton and Sheffield Utd.
Overall
Compared to say, Aston Villa, it’s been another disappointing summer. They have added Champions League standard quality in the form of Youri Tielemans, Pau Torres and Moussa Diaby, and now have a squad with an outside chance of a Champions League place (although I think they may regret selling Aaron Ramsey to Burnley).
We still have a thin squad with question marks in midfield, full-back and central defence. On that basis, I expect many fans will consider Kevin Thelwell to be a waste of space as Director of Football.
But taking account of our disastrous finances, I give the recruitment team 8/10. Could they have done better? Possibly, but you can see the constraints they’re working to.
We have spent about £36M and sold about £43M worth of players (and Gray may yet leave for Saudi Arabia too). Loan commitments might make up some of the difference but it’s clear that we’re not just adrift of the big boys, we’re now lagging well behind the likes of Bournemouth (net spend of -€126M) and Forest (net spend of -€56M). In fact, it’s only us, Brighton and Wolves with a positive net spend coming out of the window.
For the coming season, I expect that our squad (with Sean Dyche at the helm) is now good enough to finish between 12th and 15th. It is possible that we finish higher but to do so, we would have to do so on heart and organisation rather than quality. My expectation is that we’ll finish around 13th and many fans will think that’s because Dyche is a dinosaur, failing to notice just how poor the playing squad remains relative to the competition.
How did we do it – the strategy?
This is interesting. There’s been a very clear strategy not to sell off the crown jewels of Branthwaite, Onana and Pickford (the three players who most obviously look like they have Champions League ability or potential).
Instead, Thelwell has done well to get weaker players off the books – which sadly includes Tom Cannon. Shame it was a sale and not a loan, but maybe we have a buy-back option or a percentage of future sale? That disappointment is probably offset for many by the sale of Alex Iwobi to Fulham for a surprisingly high fee given his contract was up in June 2024. I doubt anyone will be disappointed to see Maupay leave for Brentford either – although I expect both he and Iwobi to do quite well for their new clubs.
Spending strategy has focussed on the free, the cheap and the on-loan. And by ‘cheap’, I mean up-front payments – not necessarily the overall fee. It looks like initial payment demands for the likes of Wilfred Gnonto and others, placed them out of reach – despite them possibly being “cheaper” in headline terms than Beto.
We also seem to have gone for a healthy mix of Moyes-type signings of 23- to 26-year-olds who are ready now but not quite top quality (Beto, Harrison and Danjuma) along with some Martinez type Champions League potential (Chermiti and, of sorts, Branthwaite). Young is just cheap and experienced cover of the sort both Moyes and Martinez might have signed.
In the circumstances, this looks like a decent strategy.
Priority 1: Striker
Beto is an experienced striker who should be first-team ready now. Chermiti is an imaginative signing for a club often criticised for failing to look to cheaper markets for players.
Both have the physique for the Premier League. We look much stronger now in attack. Crucially we are no longer over-reliant on Calvert-Lewin, which allows him to recover from injuries properly.
Are there any real “ones who got away”? El Bilal Toure is now injured so we dodged a bullet there. Not sure anyone within our financial grasp is genuinely better than what we ended up with. Just a shame about Cannon.
Priority 2: Centre-Back
Branthwaite is probably the best young English centre-back after Colwill and Harwood-Bellis, so we should be excited at the prospect of him securing a first-team spot over the course of the season. He is, in effect, like a new £25M signing at centre-back.
In my article at the start of the window, I mentioned a few who ended up having fairly low-cost moves: Bueno from Girona to Wolves; Montes from Espanyol to Almeria; Porozo from Troyes to Olympiakos, Holding from Arsenal to Palace; Phillips from Liverpool to Celtic and Williams from Liverpool to Aberdeen.
Given Godfrey looks like he’s forgotten how to play football since Ancelotti left, we could have done with a bit more cover here. Holding, for just over £1M, would have excited no-one but fit the bill. Interest in DeWinter of Juve, Maguire of Manchester Utd, Chalobah of Chelsea and Solet of Salzburg obviously came to nothing.
Priority 3: Winger or Forward
Surprisingly, perhaps, we have gone all out for players in this category.
Danjuma and Harrison are both good, experienced players with a strong track record in English football. They are players for now. I expect we’ve added 10+ goals minimum to the squad by signing them (goals and assists).
Danjuma is also very versatile and can play as a striker if needs be. Although he’s not a traditional striker, he’s as much a striker as, say, Gakpo or Richarlison. So it is an improvement on prior seasons.
It looks as though we tried really hard to bring in one of Sulemana or Gnonto too but couldn’t quite get a deal over the line. We’ve not sold Demarai Gray yet but the Saudi Arabia transfer window remains open, so that could still happen. If so, it looks like Lewis Dobbin will be given a chance.
Extra bodies in midfield
We’re fairly well-stocked in numbers for the coming season (especially with Dele Alli and André Gomes still on the books), but I’m not sure about the quality and blend.
Garner and Onana are our best footballers but they don’t seem to play well together yet. Doucouré and Gueye can be effective but are very limited footballers. I think we’ve got one of the weaker midfields in the bottom half of the Premier League. We will also be hit by Afcon in the New Year.
We may come to miss Iwobi’s assists and forward passing (and I expect him to do pretty well at Fulham) but I wonder whether Dwight McNeil might be moved inside from the wing, with Arnaut Danjuma starting wide left.
We obviously tried to get a bit of cheap cover in – with Wharton, Alzate and Reed all heavily linked – but again we couldn’t get the deals over the line. With Lewis Warrington on loan at Plymouth Argyle, maybe Jenson Metcalfe or Tyler Onyango can push themselves into the first-team reckoning.
Full-back cover
Ashley Young is sort of a strange signing due to age but I’m fairly content that this was a sensible move given Mykolenko and Patterson are first choice still, I expect. We also have various players who can cover the positions at a push. We just didn’t have the money to do much more in this area by the looks of things, so Young is the sticking plaster for the time being.
Unfortunately, we sold possibly the best U18 left-back in Europe for £4M. It’s extremely disappointing that Ishé Samuels-Smith has gone. I don’t necessarily blame the club – because sometimes it’s the young players agitating for moves (like Thierry Small and Emilio Lawrence both did, possibly to their respective detriment). Sad nonetheless. Oh well… when Young is called upon then he’ll probably do okay – and might also be a good influence on the younger players too.