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Man Utd 'preparing' £45m bid for Pickford

| 18/06/2023 179comments  |  Jump to last

It's Sunday so time for the weekly collection of outlandish transfer stories, with The Mirror claiming that Manchester United have made Jordan Pickford a top target to replace David de Gea.

No matter that club's generally don't brief the media on bids they're "preparing" to make and that Everton probably value Pickford at around £15m more than that.

The Mirror insist, though, that the Blues need to sell and will therefore be pressed into a cut-price sale of England's No 1.

Pickford only recently signed a new contract and cemented his status as arguably Everton's best player this past season, playing another vital role in keeping the club in the Premier League.

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He would surely consider an attractive offer from a Champions League club were one to come in but the indications from the keeper when he penned the new deal were that he wanted to stay at Goodison Park for the time being.

Update: On 20th June, The S*n claimed that Everton are lining up Crystal Palace keeper Sam Johnstone as Pickford's replacement as they are preparing for the latter's departure from Goodison Park.

Reader Comments (179)

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Paul Kossoff
1 Posted 17/06/2023 at 23:44:04
Manchester United are preparing a £45M bid for Everton's England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, 29.

Alan J Thompson
2 Posted 18/06/2023 at 05:50:29
Being Everton you can't take anything for granted but I'd like to think that not trying to keep Begovic indicates that they won't be allowing Pickford to leave. However, needs must when the independent commission drives.
Jim Jennings
3 Posted 18/06/2023 at 06:04:03

Begovic was apparently offered a contract and turned it down, as he wanted first-team football.

Ralph Basnett
4 Posted 18/06/2023 at 06:35:46
Decent opening bid but, when you have prices go to nearly double that for Alisson and Kepa, Msn Utd need to come back with a lot more.

Maybe it's £45M plus McTominay and Henderson?

Dan Nulty
5 Posted 18/06/2023 at 06:40:28
McTominay would have no interest coming to us. Plus not sure he is better than what we have anyway.

Henderson would be a decent alternative if he hasn't already signed for Forest.

Neil Carter
6 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:08:59
Suicidal move with the current squad – we can't score goals and we have Pickford to thank for a large part of our Premier League status.

We need cash to buy players. If he has to go, then surely the top English goalkeeper goes to a cash-rich team at double that bid?

He's our player on a long contract so we control this transfer – we need a suitable replacement first if we are selling.

Overall, we need to keep Pickford and strengthen if we are to avoid third time unlucky. Lesson to be learnt is Schmeichel at Leicester.

Rob Baker
7 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:09:49
Double that and maybe we can talk.
Sam Hoare
8 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:14:37
Pickford to Everton is probably worth £65-80M.

Pickford to other clubs is unlikely to be worth more than £50M.

And for that reason, I think it's unlikely he leaves.

David Raya had probably as good a season as Pickford and is a few years younger and is heading to Tottenham for around £35M. Highly doubtful any club is willing to pay twice that for Pickford even if he's England No 1.

No keeper over the age of 28 has ever sold for more than £30M.

Martin Faulkner
9 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:14:52
Everton preparing counter offer of 45M all up front with Henderson and Diallo thrown in as well. They are also thought to be considering throwing in Dele Alli to sweeten the deal...
Colin Glassar
10 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:17:03
Probably bullshit but, if we're prepared to sell our last two, fully fit, decent players, ie. Pickford and Onana, to balance the books, then we are well and truly fucked and deserve to be relegated this season.

I see absolutely no change at Everton despite the three resignations. The sickness runs deep and the chief surgeon is a blind fool. The patient is dying and no one seems to care.

Alan J Thompson
11 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:24:33

That seems to confirm that Everton don't intend letting Pickford go but we did go the best part of a season without a striker.

You don't think they would, would they, especially as Bill seems to see some sort of special relationship with Man Utd – you know, they want something we've got and we take what they don't want.

Terry Farrell
12 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:31:39

If we use Onana money wisely, we can improve. I don't want Jordan Pickford to go anywhere – I love him 💙.

We need to steer clear of Mateta, Morelos and buys like that. Cannon and Branthwaite coming back excite me and we need to work on a settled position for Godfrey. Maybe a 3 of him, Tarkowski and Branthwaite?

Buy young hungry players like the Coventry forward Gyökeres. We can turn it round with Dyche.

Mike Hayes
13 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:55:31
According to Twitter posts Pickford to Man Utd; Holgate, Keane and Godfrey may be sold; and Iwobi wanting to play Champions League football – plus Simms and Branthwaite on the transfer radar.

No signs off any additions… Dyche won't have much to work with. 🤷

Bob Parrington
14 Posted 18/06/2023 at 07:59:59

I like your humour! Dele Alli would be a good fit for Man Utd. Maybe here in Australia but, then, we do have a deli on every corner. 🤔

Paul Birmingham
15 Posted 18/06/2023 at 08:59:41
It's that time of the year, silly season.

After the last 2 seasons of pain and anguish, I'd like to think Everton and Kevin Thelwel have a plan and strateg that is not written on the back of a pack of Capstans.

Pickford has saved Everton two seasons running. He's the base of the spine. I hope he isn't sold, but if so, set a record fee.

Selling our best player won't help pre-season morale, but I pray there's a focused plan and strategy in place.

Let's see what happens.


Si Pulford
16 Posted 18/06/2023 at 09:02:50
I'm hoping this is just speculation but… Man Utd need to replace De Gea, he makes a lot of mistakes. They are slowly improving and a top keeper would help them no end.

Also, his profile is perfect for Man Utd. He's homegrown, England's undisputed Number One, and is vastly experienced in the Premier League and internationally with experience of playing under pressure. He'd be perfect for them.

Again, I hope it's speculation but the link isn't a surprise and kind of makes sense.

Whether he wants to leave is another matter but, when someone offers to ‘double your money' (which they can easily afford), you tend to take notice no matter how happy you are. Add Champions League to that and it becomes an attractive proposition.

But then there's the fee. £45M isn't enough but people saying double it is wishful thinking. If a bid of, say, £60M came in, we would be foolish not to consider it.

We could buy a new keeper, a striker, and a full-back for that kind of money and improve the squad.

For me, it looks like we are going to have to sell one of him or Onana and I would rather sell the latter who, whilst having loads of potential, doesn't have the same impact on our results as Pickford, who wins us games single-handedly.

It's a shame we've got to the point where we go into every transfer window thinking about which one of our better players we would be more comfortable selling but this is the Premier League… The Super League in all but name. When you sign the Devil's Deal, don't be shocked when it comes back to haunt you.

Tony Everan
17 Posted 18/06/2023 at 09:07:07
It depends how hard Pickford is agitating for the move and whether any informal agreements were made to him upon signing his new contract.

I don't want him to go as his goalkeeping – including some incredible saves last season – were one of the biggest factors that saved the club from relegation. Also, he is a class apart from the other England goalkeepers and becoming more consistent over the last couple of years,

I fear if Man Utd are serious in their pursuit, they will get him. £45M doesn't sound enough.

Securing a loan for Diallo as part of any deal needs to be unconditional, including an option to buy.

Denis Richardson
18 Posted 18/06/2023 at 09:14:03
£45M plus Henderson would be a great deal. Even £30M plus Henderson.

If £45M is truly the opening bid, then at least we're going to get a decent amount.

Andrew Keatley
19 Posted 18/06/2023 at 09:32:34
Sam (8):

“Pickford to Everton is probably worth £65-80M. Pickford to other clubs is unlikely to be worth more than £50M.”

I have no idea of the metric you are using for these assertions but I'm not sure how reliable it is. The shifting sands of value are making things quite hard to predict at present but, if we do need to sell a valuable asset ahead of 1 July, then the pressure is on us to expedite the negotiations, and to do so will mean we're unlikely to get full market value; motivated sellers with a lit match between their toes rarely do.

So I am expecting either Onana or Pickford to be sold in the next 12 days, probably for around £50+ million, and for that to hopefully keep the wolves of P&S away from our doors for the time being.

Sadly, I imagine that now is not the time to cling tightly to a player's perceived value, but rather it's about doing what is necessary to stay afloat.

Dean Williams
20 Posted 18/06/2023 at 09:54:47
They need to add another 35 million to that. It's about time we stood up as a club and stopped taking peanuts for players.
Pat Kelly
22 Posted 18/06/2023 at 10:30:45
I can see both Pickford and Onana being sold for a combined total of around £100M. But we won't be spending much of it.

We'll get Robles back from Leeds.

Tony Abrahams
23 Posted 18/06/2023 at 10:34:27
Robles was never good enough, and I’d be very surprised if we got £100 million for those two players, Pat.
Pat Kelly
24 Posted 18/06/2023 at 10:47:01
Tony, I agree Robles isn't the best but we're in dire straits.

We can squeeze more than £45M for Pickford and there's a number of clubs reportedly interested in Onana – Arsenal, Newcastle, Chelsea. £45-50M for him shouldn't be out of the question.

Ian Bennett
25 Posted 18/06/2023 at 10:56:08
If he does go, and I can't blame him wanting to fight for honours, then we have to get a top replacement.

Leeds, Southampton and Leicester all got relegated through pathetic goalkeeping displays. We stayed up because our keeper was excellent most of the time.

Mark Taylor
26 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:08:26
I agree with Si @16, one of Pickford and Onana are likely to be sold, possibly even both.

Given our plight and need to plug gaps elsewhere in the squad, I fear we will get less than we'd like. People can smell our desperation. Swapping Pickford for Henderson would not be the worst business in the world, if it also raises some cash, say £20-30M.

I can imagine little if any of that being re-invested given our financial position, so if Onana also goes, we need a proper return on that, at least £20M over what we paid. I don't think he's worth that, and we ought to be able to put that money to better use, but if Caicedo doesn't go to Chelsea, we can see how much they are willing to pay for a midfielder, I believe £80M was quoted for Caicedo.

Michael Penley
27 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:08:43
Kenwright might be an actor, but he's not an independent actor. That's why, if or when he goes, the club will be in the same situation.

The fans don't think Everton has any right to win things, or be in the top half of the table. That comes through most clearly listening to the fans who have far more influence than the chairman.

If it was Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool or Arsenal selling Pickford, they'd be saying no less than £100M.

Jim Lloyd
28 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:14:53

"The supporters have far more influence than the Chairman?"

How do you come to that conclusion?

Ian Riley
29 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:17:34
Is £45 million the release clause? If not, settle for no less than £65 million.

Here we go again, selling our best players. Even the great man can't keep saving us. Managing Everton will be the impossible job soon.

Happy Father's Day to all those with us and those looking down!

Ian Pilkington
30 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:20:30
Sam @8,

Thank you for a very sensible overview as usual.

Others appear to have overlooked the fact we are still in the Premier League – courtesy of the player they believe we need to sell.

Despite the infuriating delay, the dreadful Kenwright era is about to close and surely the new board will regard the retention of Pickford as a priority.

Rob Halligan
31 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:32:00
Given he signed a 3-year contract extension recently, he's now contracted to the club until June 2027. Also, when you consider a goalkeeper is supposed to have a longer playing career than an outfield player, Pickford could quite easily have another 10 years playing time left in him.

He's also the England No 1, and has been for a few years now, so if Man Utd think they can get him for £45M, then they can go and fly a kite. £45M would be a steal, plus it would leave us with no recognised goalkeeper.

Plus, as Ian (#25) says, all three relegated teams went because as a result of some poor performances by their keepers, so why on earth would we want to sell ours?

And I know we have P&S problems, but we would still have to splash out for a new goalkeeper, unless there are some top class goalkeepers available on a free!

Stories that Pickford is more than happy and settled living on Merseyside so, if this weren't the case, why did he sign an extended contract?

I could understand him going if we had been relegated, and the contract extension was to make sure we got top dollar for him. I'm pretty certain that the release clause for relegation was £35M, so, in essence, Man Utd are only wanting to pay £10M more than the release clause.

Having said all that, I've just looked to see what rag is reporting this rumour…….The Star on Sunday!! For fuck's sake, it might as well be the bloody Beano!

Dan Nulty
32 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:40:39
I genuinely can't see Man Utd signing Pickford. Doesn't feel like a Man Utd type signing to me.

We do need to raise money from somewhere, though, so it wouldn't surprise me if we got him to sign the new contract on the agreement we let him go for a decent offer to a Champions League club.

Ray Robinson
33 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:43:03
Agree with Rob. Why sell, unless we have to, when Begovich has just gone? If we did have to find another keeper, what about Dubravka at Newcastle who seems to be too good to sit on the bench? Maybe he’s been promised Champions League games though?

Think if anyone goes, it will be Onana. And I don’t want to sell him either!

Denis Richardson
34 Posted 18/06/2023 at 11:58:49
I see West Ham are supposedly interested in Branthwaite.

Now there's one player we definitely should not be selling. Loads of potential and if we sell we would not be getting that much to reinvest in any case.

Presume someone's gonna go before 30 June, like last summer, to balance the books. Selling Branthwaite isn't going to do that presumably.

Oliver Molloy
35 Posted 18/06/2023 at 12:15:09
If it's true we need to sell, then that's what will happen.

Our club has been so badly managed by the owner, we have gone backwards to such an extent, it will most likely take many many years to correct – it is going to be another long season.

The only hope we have in my opinion is that Dyche, with all his experience in building a team with no real money to spend, is able to make us competitive and win some more games. The target has to be to win more than eight games; without a proven striker doing the business, that will tough!

Raymond Fox
36 Posted 18/06/2023 at 12:59:07
It would be no suprise if teams want to sign Pickford but it's still paper talk, they have to put something in columns.

We are not far off being a decent team; solve the striker problem and a decent cover for left-back and we will be a 12th- to 14th-placed team this season. That is if we keep Pickford; if we have sell players, he would be the last to be sold for me.

The club at the top is in turmoil — that's our biggest problem.

James Marshall
37 Posted 18/06/2023 at 13:14:24
Starting to look like a bit of a fire sale at the club now. You can see numerous players leaving, and bugger all coming in. Possibly the odd Man Utd reject as part of the deal? We need players – good players; otherwise, it's another season of trouble and probably relegation.

You can see the pattern already – scouring the Internet, there's talk of us making bids for players, but only in the red-top rags and fan sites. There's zero talk of us actually buying anyone in any of the reputable columns so it's safe to assume there's nothing going on regarding incomings, and it's all outgoings.

I fear for us next season, big time.

Steve Shave
38 Posted 18/06/2023 at 13:27:40
Any deal with Man Utd must come with Diallo as part of it. The lad is going to be top drawer.
Jack Convery
39 Posted 18/06/2023 at 13:34:36
Add at least another £25M, plus 20% of future sale, and then we may be bothered to pick up the phone.
Will Mabon
40 Posted 18/06/2023 at 13:47:28
I tell you what, for such a poor team, we sure do have a history of "bigger" teams coming after or pulayers, real or speculated.
Barry Rathbone
41 Posted 18/06/2023 at 13:55:35
This is how it is and has been for decades, the difference under Moshiri and his new build albatross and associated lunacies is we sell to survive – not to fulfil ambition.

All outside the monied cabal are sell-to-buy non-entities and without oil money or similar this is us confirmed as relegation fodder in waiting.

There is absolutely nothing that can be done about it without the input of serious cash.

Dan Nulty
42 Posted 18/06/2023 at 13:55:47
Diallo going back to Atlanta on loan as a makeweight for them signing Rasmus.

I'd love us to sign him if we could, even on loan.

Mark Ryan
43 Posted 18/06/2023 at 14:31:37
What would Everton do in this scenario, Bill?

"I'll spite the whole of the fanbase and sell him cheaply before disappearing off into the sunset, what do I care?"

Soren Moyer
44 Posted 18/06/2023 at 15:14:38
How about throwing Pickford in as sweetener if Man Utd bid for Maupay, lol?

If we let Kenwright do this one, he would probably swap Pickford with Harry Maguire and Phil Jones + some change.

Eric Myles
45 Posted 18/06/2023 at 15:21:38
Rob #31,

"Plus, as Ian # 25 says, all three relegated teams went because as a result of some poor performances by their keepers"

Is that also true of when Sunderland got relegated?

Paul Kossoff
46 Posted 18/06/2023 at 15:32:39
Ruben Neves: Wolves captain set to join Saudi Arabia's Al Hilal in £47M deal. Another money grabber off for the Saudi pay packet.

Wonder what he'll say when his wife's arrested for not having him sitting next to her while driving. No morals when the cash-cow comes calling.

Would we be happy if Pickford and Onana are sold to the legal murderers?

Jack Convery
48 Posted 18/06/2023 at 15:50:35
The Premier League shoud be worrying when players like Neves decide to take the Blood Dollars of the Saudi League.

It would be so ironic if all the best players were to go there. Would City and Newcastle be moved to the Middle East or become feeder clubs for their Arab masters?

Kieran Kinsella
49 Posted 18/06/2023 at 15:52:27

Is it any different than when Oscar went off to China, Tevez etc? We survived.

Sam Hoare
50 Posted 18/06/2023 at 16:19:48
Andrew @19, I'm not convinced we need to sell by 1 July. We've already banked healthy transfer profits this year.

And even when we did, last year, we still got a healthy profit for Richarlison.

Obviously any figures used on here are likely to be speculative but my point is that I don't think any other club will value Pickford as highly as we do. Personally, I think he'll probably stay.

Having said that, I do think our fans sometimes overstate his importance to the team and personally my feeling is that well-run clubs learn to sell at least a few of their good players before their value drops.

We'll probably never get as good offers for Pickford as we'll get this summer.

Andy Crooks
51 Posted 18/06/2023 at 17:33:03
"Preparing" a bid, used to mean having dinner with Kenwright, blowing smoke up his ass, praising "Blood Brothers", and offering him a couple of has-beens in part-exchange.

They'll need to hurry up. Rumour has it that Everton are considering employing professionals…

Rob Halligan
52 Posted 18/06/2023 at 17:43:19
Eric #45.

You're probably right, the same as when Burnley got relegated, and Pope went to the skunks. I remember Pope making some real howlers the year Burnley went down.

Frank Sheppard
53 Posted 18/06/2023 at 18:52:57
I can see this happening. Pickford is good enough and will want to play Champions League, rather than bottom half of the Premier League.
Danny Baily
54 Posted 18/06/2023 at 19:03:56
I think we can get over £50M from this deal. We could get a very solid keeper in for a fraction of that and use the rest to help balance the squad.

I'd cash in while his stock is high. Joe Hart went from England's Number 1 to flop in no time at all.

Peter Mills
55 Posted 18/06/2023 at 19:11:50
Sam #50, I disagree. I don't think you (we) can overstate Pickford's importance to the team.

He is excellent. With a simply good goalkeeper we would probably finish the season with 5 or 6 fewer points. I believe his excellence has made the difference between relegation and survival over the past 2 seasons (at least).

Lee Courtliff
57 Posted 18/06/2023 at 19:16:06
£45M plus Henderson and I'd be quite happy with that.

Obviously I'd prefer to keep our best players and buy another team's best, but that is a long, long way away.

Paul Smith
58 Posted 18/06/2023 at 19:44:08
Moshiri bought a couple or class players and Jordan is the last one of them; sell at our peril.
Nick Page
59 Posted 18/06/2023 at 20:15:00
Apologies if already stated but £47M for Neves to the Saudis is kopite level pulling pants down. And this isn't even to a Premier League rival. He's gone.

So I'm sorry but if you think £45M is enough for Pickford you need some pills to help with that awful disease, Kenwrightitis. Mediocrity will never taste the same again.

Robert Tressell
60 Posted 18/06/2023 at 20:19:12
However we do it, we obviously need a better First XI and squad next season. Unless we get some further third party investment it looks like we're going to have to sell to buy. And selling the so-called deadwood really isn't going to free up meaningful sums for transfer fees.

If we sell Onana, it doesn't really weaken us right now. I don't think he's a starter for Dyche just yet. We could buy 2 or 3 players with the proceeds of sale. Whatever potential Onana has, it seems to make sense to sell if the offers come in.

If we sell Pickford, we'll almost certainly replace him with a worse player. Getting Henderson as a makeweight would be a poor deal for us because we'd be left with an inferior goalkeeper and about 50% of the sale proceeds gone. To really strengthen the squad, we probably can't commit more than £10m to a replacement keeper. There are plenty of keepers available at that price who are at least as good as Henderson.

Ultimately though, you can't really judge whether a sale is good just because of the price. Ultimately, it's all about how we use the money and whether we improve the team overall. As we've seen, you can get a good price for a player like Lukaku and then spend the money on a load of rubbish.

Winston Williamson
61 Posted 18/06/2023 at 21:29:20
There's an assumption going on here.

We're assuming we need to sell, due to the sale of Richarlison last year before the end of the financial year (30 June). We raised £60M for the sale, which most likely did allow the accounts to look healthier.

However, this financial year we have sold Gordon (£40M) and Kean (£24M?).

Making my own assumption the transfer fees we spent last summer are spread over a number of years, we may not need to sell anyone, as we have already sold players this financial year.

We also have the Neils Nkounkou money (£2M) and other possible sales (Keane, Godfrey, Moupay) to consider.

Wages have reduced too, with Mina, Townsend (Davies?) etc leaving.

The biggest issues we have are the wages of Gomes, Ali and Gbamin. That's £15.6M we'll be paying out over the next 12 months, on players we won't play.

All said, I don't think we'll buy until July, using funds from the sales in the current financial year. More than likely spread over a period again.

The problem with spread payments is it weakens our negotiating position, allowing upfront buyers to outbid us.

Sam Hoare
62 Posted 18/06/2023 at 21:32:23
Peter@55, he has been excellent. If he wasn't then there's no reason any of the top teams would want him.

The goalkeeper analysis says that he's saved us 3.0 goals more than would be expected. Which puts him in top 5 of all keepers this season. But then Bernd Leno was second on the list and apparently saved Fulham 9.0 goals and he only cost £8m.

Pickford is not irreplaceable. Though of course there's reason to doubt Evertons ability to replace him successfully.

(For what it's worth Dean Henderson was 20th on the list and apparently let in 4.1 more goals than he should have on xG models.)

Mike Price
63 Posted 18/06/2023 at 22:29:37
I hate all these random-based xG statistics-based arguments, they can be massively misleading.

Personally, I think Pickford is bang average and causes more problems than he solves. I'd love us to unload him for a decent fee.

Check out the Man Utd websites, they are mortified, no one wants him and consider it a joke, even a sackable offence if they pay a fee for him!

We are so success-starved, we just can't see the blindingly obvious and recognise that what our fan base thinks as top class, everyone else recognises as bang average.

Raymond Fox
64 Posted 18/06/2023 at 23:35:01
It is amazing how some people can watch games and come up with a totally differently conclusion than the vast majority of others do.
Soren Moyer
65 Posted 18/06/2023 at 00:00:32
Just checked Man Utd's first-team Squad. They have 50 first team players! 50!!!

A breach of FFP right there, as they keep accumulating players upon players. The same goes for Chelsea.

Julian Wait
66 Posted 19/06/2023 at 00:05:02
I think Pickford wants stability before the Euros next year and so he will stay at least until then. He says he is happy, and that his family is happy here; he didn't need to say the latter part.

Of course, Manchester is a hop and a skip down the road, but he's not guaranteed to start. After that, it's down to money and whether he'd make more elsewhere.

Personally, I think we pay him as much as we can – there's no-one consistently done more to keep this club in the top flight than him these last few years.

Tony Paleo
67 Posted 18/06/2023 at 00:36:30
This looks dangerously like a fire sale and I think we will be forced to sell Onana, Pickford and I fear Iwobi as well. Our squad next year will undoubtedly be weaker unless something dramatically changes at this club.

Onana we can live without, especially for £60 million, if Garner steps up and Dyche plays 4-4-2 and we need less central midfielders. But how the hell will we replace Pickford, who has done more than anyone to keep us from devastation?

We need a left-back, a striker, a right winger at the absolute minimum, without needing to replace existing players, let alone our best players. And who do we expect to sign us these players? The same inept group of people that brought us into this debacle in the first place.

We all have blamed Kenwright for the decline of this club, but we were in very safe hands under his stewardship prior to Moshiri. We wanted Champions League football and a shiny new stadium so much that we allowed the destroyer of Everton Football Club through the door in Moshiri (and Usmanov no doubt.)

It is 19th June and this club needs an intervention, because we are sleepwalking into relegation next year and the financial ruin of this club. If we keep going at this rate, I fear we may end up seeing Liverpool playing at Bramley Moore Dock by the time it's ready.

Lester Yip
68 Posted 19/06/2023 at 01:40:03
I think Dyche had made it clear he wants Pickford to stay. If we really need the money, it has to be a big sum plus some players that we want. Diallo, Elanga etc with potential.
Dupont Koo
69 Posted 19/06/2023 at 02:04:41
Bill Simmons, one of the more respected NBA writers on the other side of the channel, writes an Annual Trade Value Ranking for the top 60 NBA Players (this year's version is here: Link). I've updated some of his hilarious categories for Football (the names virtually stay the same), starting with the least valuable:

1) "Quality Starters"

2) "The Upside Gang"

3) "Sorry, He's Worth Way More To Us Than You"

4) "If you tell Fabrizio (Romano), I'll deny It to the Death...but I'm listening"

5) "Too Young, Too Cheap, Too Good...Please Stop Calling Us"

6) "The Incredibly Touchable Untouchables"

7) "Let me save you some time: F-U-C-K-N-O"

8) "Budding Club Legends"

9) "Only if They Made Us Sell Him"

10) "The Untouchables"

11) "Completely and Utterly Untouchable": The Mbappe category

Pickford should at least be in between Category 3 & 4. If Gordon was in Category 2 when we ripped off the Barcode for £45 Million, then it is a no-brainer that we need to ask for upward of £80 Million in any negotiations on Pickford to begin with.

IMHO, however, Pickford is at least in Category 7, if not Category 8, notwithstanding our precarious financial situation. West Ham is rejecting bids for Declan Rice (whom they consider as Category 9) on any bids lower than £100 Million, and I don't see any reason of not doing the same for Pickford, especially we are talking about a Premium position with less quality supplies and alternatives.

Unless, a la Alexis Mac Allister's move to the Red Shite, there is a Minimum Fee Release Clause in Pickford's contract extension earlier this year that would allow him to leave at a lower fee than what we deem him for...Fingers crossed that this is NOT the case!

(Quick tangent: Onana is in Category 5, IMHO. So Thelwell should put down the phone on anything less than £60 Million)

Greg Nelli
70 Posted 19/06/2023 at 03:15:55
Hopefully Everton are preparing a response to Man Utd informing them to go forth and fornicate with their respective mothers.
Mark Boullé
71 Posted 19/06/2023 at 07:12:29
All I know is that, a week since 3 board members left and major change seemed imminent, Everton have relapsed back into the usual infuriating summer inertia.

I know gossip columns aren't everything, but we've stopped appearing in them. There's no news of MSP.

Other teams are already busy making changes to their squads and preparing for the new season.

Everton? Nada, diddly squat. Do they all live in some parallel universe where time passes half as quickly as for the rest of the football world?

Terry Downes
72 Posted 19/06/2023 at 07:38:22
If Man Utd want Pickford, then the chances are he'll go – it just depends what we get or want for him?

Personally I think Henderson as part of the deal is a must with either money, Diallo or McTominay thrown in? Time to play a bit of hard ball.

Tony Everan
73 Posted 19/06/2023 at 07:51:32
Mark 71, What are you worried about?

We've still got Kaiser Kenwright, or whatever he calls himself these days, to weave his magic manning the phones on the last day of the transfer window. What could go wrong?

Brian Wilkinson
74 Posted 19/06/2023 at 08:30:08
I cannot see us selling Pickford but, if he sees it as a challenge, then we will struggle to keep hold of him, regardless of what any of us think.

We are in such a mess that we may have to – likewise with Onana.

At the moment, I cannot see Everton paying big money for incoming players, until after the financial year ends on 30 June. So we have a more favourable outlook on the rolling previous 3 years, the sales of Richarlison, Moise Kean and Gordon, with possibly Pickford, or Onana added to the list, will see us in a more favourable position by then.

If we are to do any major transfer building, then I see it happening the start of July – all pure guess work by me. I do not know the inns and outs, but at I guess I will be surprised if we brought any major deals in before 30 June.

Dave Abrahams
75 Posted 19/06/2023 at 09:24:19
Terry (72),

Yes, that would do me: Henderson and McTominay for Pickford. Admittedly I'm not a big fan of Pickford and not sure Man Utd would go for him.

Sam Hoare
76 Posted 19/06/2023 at 10:03:50
MIke @63, I agree the xG stats can be misleading. But they can also be revealing! As you say, most fans see through the prism of their own expectations and judgements. I think well chosen stats including xG ones can help cut through those set judgements.

For a long time, I thought Pickford was really quite average but the stats have forced me to challenge that point of view as they all point to him having upped his game significantly over the last 2 seasons for us.

Some people find it almost impossible to change their minds though!

Rob Halligan
77 Posted 19/06/2023 at 10:32:02
Tony # 67……you’re right, we will see the RS playing at BMD….at least once a season when we play them.

Why on earth, though, would they want to move to BMD? They are in the process of extending the Anfield road stand to bring their capacity upto 61K, at a cost of about £80M. In the last few years they extended their main stand at a cost of over £250M. So of course, they are going to buy BMD and move into a smaller capacity stadium and sell off Anfield, despite spending nearly £350M on extending the place.

Sam Hoare
78 Posted 19/06/2023 at 11:10:06
If we were gonna sell Pickford, we could do worse than buy a very talented young Dutch keeper, Bart Verbruggen, from Anderlecht.

Chucking him in as first choice in the Premier League would be a big step up… but you know he's probably gonna be a great player because Brighton are after him!

Karl Meighan
79 Posted 19/06/2023 at 11:14:02
I cannot see this myself — the Man Utd keeper on loan at Forest would replace De Gea, wouldn't he?

I would be interested in a cash-plus-keeper swap deal. Pickford is a fine keeper and one of not many I would be disappointed to lose but this could release needed funds and get an excellent replacement in return.

John Kavanagh
80 Posted 19/06/2023 at 11:22:26
Mark @71 and Tony @73.

Well, I've sat through 48 hours and its sequel, Another 48 Hours. Now Chairman Bill's imminent departure looks like taking on the time-bending properties of Interstellar. Endless Night for all supporters.

We shouldn't be surprised. Why would Chairman and ace negotiator, Bill Kenwright, pass up the chance of making one last killing by selling off any remaining quality players and adding to the Arteta money, before trousering a fat share of the eventual parachute payment?

Finally departing with the naming of the newly leased Bill Kenwright Stadium and unveiling of the 60-foot North Korean Chairman Bill statue at the opening fixture vs Millwall.

Dave Abrahams
81 Posted 19/06/2023 at 11:38:43
Sam (76),

“Some people find it hard to change their minds.”

Well, stats would never make me change my mind, Sam; my eyes though would really influence me. When I see Pickford commanding his 6-yard area and dealing with long-range shots on the ground along with dealing with shots that don't include him pushing the save back into the goal area instead of turning them out for a corner, then I would be more impressed.

Although it must be said his defenders could have helped better than standing lifeless when he pushes those saves back into the goal area. At the moment, I think he gets over-hyped by Everton fans but is not regarded so highly by neutral fans.

Tom Bowers
82 Posted 19/06/2023 at 11:49:36
It's all speculation and what we have come to accept during transfer windows from the media who always profess they have the inside knowledge of a club's private information and accounting.

We all know that Sky are the worst for false information.

Clubs are private businesses whose aim it is to survive and satisfy their shareholders with the fans being of secondary importance.

The players are the products they use and trade with to keep the books balanced and, if necessary, hot commodities like Pickford will be sold at the right price… along with anyone else.

Pickford is better than most other goalkeepers in the Premier League so I hope they can keep him.

Sam Hoare
83 Posted 19/06/2023 at 12:45:22
Dave @81,

I lean towards agreeing with you re Pickford. I do think he can be overhyped by Everton fans as my earlier post said.

In terms of stats vs eyes we've had this debate before. For me both have their uses and their flaws; to trust only one is to limit the tools of analysis available.

Anthony Hawkins
84 Posted 19/06/2023 at 12:51:14
It's interesting how the media portray the potential value of our players, with one article stating 'Pickford is worth £60M to the club whereas less than £50M to other clubs'. That just doesn't compute.

Q: Who sets the value? A: The selling club.

If the other clubs don't want to pay the set price, they don't have to buy him. Check the ridiculous prices some players have gone for – who set the price and who was willing to pay it.

Dan Nulty
85 Posted 19/06/2023 at 12:52:54
I think last season though is the first season he has been with us where he hasn't had a proper howler to gift a goal away?

That is a big step up in my eyes as before that I think every season he has gifted 2 or 3 goals away with a brain fart.

Steve Shave
86 Posted 19/06/2023 at 12:57:07
Agree with posters that Pickford's value is around £60M. We should be looking for players plus a little cash. Henderson, Diallo and £5-£10M would be excellent business.
Andrew Ellams
87 Posted 19/06/2023 at 12:58:04
Dave @ 81. The neutrals view about Pickford is more down to the media's obsession with Ramsdale and Pope and their desire to get one or the other into the England team.
Andrew Keatley
88 Posted 19/06/2023 at 13:28:28
Dave (81) - I think Sam has outlined his point very succinctly; it's surely a case of seeing how the stats either back-up or challenge one's initial viewpoint. While stats might not convince you to abandon your initial viewpoin,t they might offer them an interesting context.

For the record, I'm largely aligned to your way of thinking - I played enough football at a high enough level to think that I can trust my eyes, but we all have blindspots. I initially thought that Declan Rice was average at best, and I also thought Chris Long looked a better prospect than Harry Kane. Nobody is batting 1,000 when it comes to judging players.

Joshua Steadman
89 Posted 19/06/2023 at 13:42:51
It has all the familiar goings on of last year.

1 July, Everton will try to buy. Disappointing that the Gordon and Kean sales have gone off the debt and still not enough to please the powers that be enough that another sale is required.

Kenwright still hanging around like the cadaver he is. The relief and small amount of optimism I had after the Bournemouth game has evaporated.

As for Pickford, good luck to him. Maybe he will win a few trophies that his talent deserves. He has been more than loyal enough. Rooney was itching after a year, Pickford has got to the business end of international competitions and stayed with us.

Minimum – Henderson and £30 million. Buy a striker and another on a free.

Dave Abrahams
90 Posted 19/06/2023 at 13:45:32
Sam (83), fair enough.

I must declare I have little interest in stats as they can be used to show different aspects of players' performances while my eyes control what my brains make of those performances, although it could be that my brains need a coat of looking over!

Dan (85),

I think Jordan has made a few mistakes, not necessarily howlers:

Ronaldo's winner for United at Goodison; two poor handling situations at Spurs, one resulting in a goal and the other a penalty.

Two very poor lining up of his defence for free kicks v Southampton and Man City, both at Goodison. He left the right-hand side of his goal wide open for the free-kick taker to take advantage which they promptly did. He never even moved for the Southampton goal.

There was the push out for the Wolves goal away although some defenders were at fault as well. And there was a similar mistake in a game at Goodison in the second half of the season – I can't remember which game. Also the numerous times he stays pinned to his goal line at corners and free kicks causing unnecessary panic in the defence.

Andrew (87),

Yes, the media have their favourites but surely football fans can make their own minds up, although there are plenty of WUMs who post into media pages. I take little or no notice of pundits, most of whom use their time to cause controversy.

All-in-all, the majority of Everton fans think Jordan is a very good ‘keeper and a lot of the time he is but he does have quite a few “Ah for fuck's sake, lad, what are you doing” moments!!

Brent Stephens
91 Posted 19/06/2023 at 13:55:27
Dave #90 "All in all the majority of Everton fans think Jordan is a very good ‘keeper and a lot of the time he is but he does have quite a few “ Ah ffs lad what are you doing”!!"

Not an unfair comment. But I wonder how many of his "ffs" moments have caused us to concede. What would his stats be on goals conceded per "ffs" moment?

Christine Foster
92 Posted 19/06/2023 at 13:55:34
I guess a reality check is needed, as good as Big Nev? Nowhere near, but in fairness no one is... ok Nigel Martyn? Hmm no, not overall...
Is he world class? Some of his saves are but again, overall no.. distribution was a key asset but that's tailed off.. commanding a box? No..
Easily replaced? No, not at all..
Leaves us with a dilemma.?
Justin Doone
93 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:01:09
Probably just hot air but yes please. Reinvest elsewhere.

There's some good keepers we can loan or pick up cheaply.

Thanks Pickford, you deserve a move and we need the cash.

Dave Abrahams
94 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:04:03
Andrew (8), I just read your post after finishing my one @ (90).

Yes of course most of us have blind spots and like you I thought that Declan Rice was overrated by the media, especially in international games games but then I saw him n a good few games for WHU and it looked to me he was their main man along with Bowen, thought they would have been lost without them.

I thought Chris Long was a very good prospect for Everton and he had the ambition to reject an Everton contract and join Burnley but never made it there and until recently he was still making a living out of football. As for Harry Kane I think he surprised many, many people in football including us fans as he travelled around many clubs on loan deals before he became the outstanding player he is now and not just as a striker, on the other side of Harry he plays for and gets many dubious fouls and penalties as well as going down far too easy for next to nothing, as we found in the recent game at Goodison which indirectly could have seen us relegated. I’ve got no time at all for that type of behaviour even when some of our own players slump to that cheating way of behaving.

Mick O'Malley
95 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:06:02
I’ll have to admit I’ve never been a big fan of Pickford, as Dave points out above his setting up of walls and his positioning for said free kick leaves a lot to be desired, his habit of parrying the ball back into the goal mouth, I think he struggles with long range shots, don’t get me wrong he makes some unbelievable reflex saves but his all round game has flaws, ask yourself would you pay £80 million for him as some seem to think he’s worth, as others have stated I think his worth to Everton is overstated and is definitely replaceable, if our only option to buy a striker is to sell Pickford then I’m ok with that
Dave Abrahams
96 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:16:44
Brent (91), Not being funny Brent I don’t read stats but do they include ‘ ffs moments ‘ one of which was when he did leave the goal line to punch the ball away v Brentford, I think, when we won 1-0, he missed the ball completely and the ball was headed into the goal only for a ‘ former scapegoat’ McNeil to kick it off the line.

Facts rather than stats record how many ‘scapegoats’ become ‘ more favourable’ I would think,but that’s another story.

Alan Johnson
97 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:18:14
Harrison and Gnocho from Leeds seems to be gaining momentum. Hope this has legs...
Steve Shave
98 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:38:17
I find it staggering that some people on here continue to pick holes in Pickford's performances. What GK doesn't make the odd error? He has gone from precocious talent to intermittently brilliant/sometimes erratic to now being exceptional and extremely consistent for 2 years straight. He is entering the prime years of a keepers career.

He has kept us in the PL two seasons in a row with his performances and he has shown great loyalty to us. Not to mention the consistency he has shown at the highest level of big tournament performances for his country.

To pick holes in him is ridiculous, I suspect those that do struggle to find satisfaction in much at all outside of football. Perfectionist tinted spectacles I say, try taking them off and look at the real world and maybe you'll see what we really have in Jordan, a top pro who has worked his socks off to iron out the creases in his game.

Barry Hesketh
99 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:44:10
Steve @98
I will wager that we'll miss Jordan more than we missed Richarlison, that's how important I think he's been for us in the last few seasons. It goes to show that media repetition is king when it comes to informing some people's opinions - we don't care what the RS say, yeah right!
Jim Lloyd
100 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:50:39
If, we are able to use the money we get for him (but I think £45m is too low) I'd have thought the lad whose just left us would have done us I'm not underestimating a goalie's importance and I know he saved our bacon a number of times. But I think that's because for most of the season, it was like the opposition were playing "shots in!"

I think he's poor at coming out and collecting the ball; but brilliant at instinctive saves. But all in all, We need (imho) a quality left back, a good goalscorer and good class midfielder (that's minimum in my view. If Pickford goes to Man Utd, I wish him well. Onana, if he's sold would hopefully give us enough funds to strengthen the squad. I think Begoivc is a decent goalie and each time I';ve seen him, the defence seems less prone to panicking.

We've got to have our squad sorted if poss, by the start of the season. I'd hate to see us falling behind from the beginning of the season.

Brent Stephens
101 Posted 19/06/2023 at 14:57:18
Dave #96 - Dave, equally seriously, that's just one example but in itself it doesn't show us how often he cocked-up (technical term). To get a sense of significance, you'd need to count the number of cock-ups (which in themselves are subjective), and express them as a percentage of e.g. minutes or games played - and there you have a stat.

And then there's the necessary comparison with other keepers' figures (or else, how do we judge Pickford?). And as we're unlikley to be able to watch all keepers' performances in coming out for the ball (successful or not), then we have to fall back on somebody else's stats, don't we?

Both "our own eyes" and stats have a role.

Rob Halligan
102 Posted 19/06/2023 at 15:16:15
A goalkeeper is, in my opinion, the most specialised position in football. You can carry an outfield player, or he can go and hide, but you cannot carry a goalkeeper or he cannot go and hide.

We have the best British goalkeeper at the moment, and we need to keep hold of him, and not replace him with someone weaker, which is what any replacement will be.

Kieran Kinsella
103 Posted 19/06/2023 at 15:23:45

Exactly. Look what became of Leicester once Schmeichel was replaced with an average goalie.

Philip Abbott
104 Posted 19/06/2023 at 15:29:13
So they want to pay £45M for England's No 1 but want £50M for a midfielder who can't even get in their 1st team, tell them to fuck off.
Dave Abrahams
105 Posted 19/06/2023 at 15:52:28
Brent (101), Brent I gave six or seven instances of Pickford’s cock ups from just last season off the top of my head, here’s another one just thinking as I’m posting when he ran out of his penalty area, yards and yards out and lost the ball providing a Leicester player with a free shot of the goal, luckily he missed and Tarkowski had it covered but it shows that those ffs moments occur quite a lot.

Schmeicel was really missed by Leicester, he was an outstanding goalkeeper who played well in and out of goal like the City goalie and organised his defence without screaming like a demented dervish throughout the game, yes I’m referring to Pickford who sometimes doesn’t realise he’s screaming at young players.

Going back a bit I don’t think he enjoyed it when Colman gave him a mouthful after Doucoure scored an header for Watford after running fifteen yards, at least and Pickford was glued to the line while Doucoure headed the ball in the six yards box with Seamus waiting for him to Coe off his line and gather the ball.

Brent there is plenty of poor play to look at when it comes to Pickford both present and in the past and most times he laughs them off when he gets away with them.

Kieran (103) There was a lot more wrong with Leicester on and off the field despite having a poor goalie who MOTM for Leicester when we drew 2-2 there late in the season.

Rob (102) Pickford might be the best British goalkeeper at the moment, I think that shows the paucity of British goalies if he is, doesn’t mean he is a great goalie.

Brent Stephens
106 Posted 19/06/2023 at 16:20:51
Dave, the crux of my point is that "own eyes" and stats both have a role. If I just read stats without watching what they're based on, I miss the subtleties (more difficult and less difficult chances, for example). Which is your point.

My point is that stats don't replace everything we see with our eyes but do have a supplementary role. For example, my point about comparison of Pickford with other keepers. Most of us don't watch every time other keepers come off their line (or not), and how many of those times they are successful (or not).

I think we need both eyes and stats. Witness how much all clubs use (comparative) stats of all sorts.

Jack Convery
107 Posted 19/06/2023 at 16:29:31
Players who influence games are those you treasure.

Pickford influences games when he makes those "incredible saves" that have the opposition believing it's not going to be their day and increases the confidence of the Everton players.

Pickford has been a major influence in us staying up the past two seasons. His save against Chelsea in 2021-22 was a pivotal moment in the season. This past season, his penalty save against Leicester was also a pivotal moment. A moment that led to us getting a point and Leicester not having enough come the last game of the season.

We sell him at our peril. Also, do you trust Thelwell to sign the quality players we will need, with the money raised by selling him? Alos £45M is an insult.

Onana is the best bet to give us a smallish transfer kitty compared to the other Premier League clubs. He plus Gray and one of Holgate, Keane and Godfrey should be sold to raise funds. Onana £50M, Gray £15M plus £20M for one of the centre-backs should give us £85M.

Dave Abrahams
108 Posted 19/06/2023 at 16:31:26
Brent (106),

I really don't think you need stats to prove one player is better than the other, you just need to judge the player on how he plays, not comparing him with other players, that's opinions. Pickford is either good or bad nothing to do with what other ‘keepers do.

I see enough on stats that show how many passes, runs, tackles, shots etc that certain players do, it means nothing to me. It doesn't tell me how good a player is, my eyes do every time and stats didn't change my mind over Rice or other players, my eyes told me how good they were.

Dale Self
109 Posted 19/06/2023 at 16:38:03
Brent, I think the eyes have it.
Ed Prytherch
110 Posted 19/06/2023 at 16:38:28
Is Onana paid for or did we get him on the drip? If it is the latter then selling now may not raise much cash.
John McFarlane Snr
111 Posted 19/06/2023 at 16:47:33
Hi all,

I have been mocked on this site for saying that footballers are not programmed, and like any other human they are prone to make mistakes.

I'm struggling to avoid insulting fellow supporters, I know that some may agree with my view, while others will class me as a 'nut case'.

It's my opinion that anyone who played for Rochdale, the bottom club in last season's Football League, could play football, but maybe not as well as those of the Premier League.

I cringe when I hear the cry of "Hey, Player X, you're crap" – the fact that Player X is an international means nothing to the enraged overweight heckler who probably hasn't kicked a ball in his life.

I find that the worst critics are the 'ex-player' TV pundits who it would seem, never made a mistake in their careers, and who tell the viewers what a player should have done in a certain situation, something the viewers are already quite aware of.

I will close now by saying, "I've seen goals scored in Sunday League games that would grace Wembley, and misses at Wembley that would embarrass international players". But that's football.

Mike Gaynes
112 Posted 19/06/2023 at 16:49:42
Dave #105, I know we differ on Pickford even with our shared experience with him (!!!), but I would point out that "cock-ups" are inherent to the position and I wonder if you've compared his to the number and frequency of those made by other keepers.

I also wonder if you've compared the number and frequency of Pickford's spectacular, gamesaving stops in comparison to other keepers.

In the past two seasons I've seen him make several saves -- particularly THAT stop against Chelsea -- that I thought nobody else on the planet could have made.

I believe he bails out his teammates' cock-ups about ten times more often than they do his.

Even if I concede all you say about his occasional rushes of blood and screaming and the like, I'm of the opinion that without his shot-stopping, either of the past two seasons, we're relegated. And I don't want to find out if that's true next season. And I'm with Rob H -- I think if he's sold there is zero chance we find anyone nearly as good to replace him, and I think it would significantly increase our chances of falling out of the PL.

Dale Self
113 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:10:19
Nice John Sr, I can’t match the overweight heckler comment. I guess Brent sort of alluded to this in asking how many mistakes actually convert into opponent opportunities. I know you two are coming at this from the player performance angle but I’m taking that to a statistics critique.

Football statistics are frustrating due to their individual focus. Additionally, chosen metrics are centered on action around the ball. Fair enough but so much valuable contribution is not really recordable Distance run or passes involved does not capture how effective a player runs and positionally frees up others. Tackles attempted or made reflect involvement but that may not be positive if their positioning invites targeting.

Overall I get that there is a lot of value in statistical analysis but without controlling for partnerships it remains a canvas needing some color. I’m not following analytical developments like moneyball so maybe this is being addressed with some new style factor analysis. I just know that some statistics invite people to see what they alreafy thought. Perhaps some new techniques will better serve the complex yet simple game of football.

Jim Lloyd
114 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:10:40
To me, I look at Pickford and think he's a superb goalie, but prone to make mistakes. He also makes wonder saves. The trouble is, as I see it, our squad is thin, to say the least. We have Champions League who may or may not, last a season

If we had a large transfer budget then we could certainly spend it all (hopefully wisely) on forwards and midfielders who can regularly score goals and a good left back maybe a right-back if we have the lolly. But it looks like we're not going to have much of a transfer pot (hopefully I'm wrong).

By the way, I'm not criticising Pickford and want him out of the team. It's just that he's one of the few players we've got who would command a lot of cash. I think £45 million is much too low. So, it seems to me we will have to sacrifice 1, maybe two, players who will command enough to get us the players we need.

CL may, or may not see us through a season. If he gets injured or his muscle goes again, who's there to score enough goals to get us away from the regular occurrence of having one of the "lowest goals for" in the Premier League. If we can get Gyökeres, or that lad from Blackburn, or both, then we have goalscorers. We also need a right midfielder, a left-back and maybe a right-back.

So it seems to me that Onana goes, though I've not heard anyone's come in for him, Pickford goes, or possibly Iwobi as well. I don't see anyone else that we could command fees of £50M or so, maybe not even that.

Brent Stephens
115 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:10:57
OK, Dave.
Andrew Clare
116 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:20:18
Are we going to sell our best players in order to buy sensational unknown talented gems or less expensive mediocre journeymen replacements? That is the question.
I wonder.
Rob Halligan
117 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:25:02
Mike, you've pretty much said what I was going to say.

Dave says @ #105, that he can think of about six or seven cock-ups that Pickford made in the season just gone. Did any of those cock ups lead to a goal being conceded?

I genuinely don't know, but if Pickford can make what most goalkeepers do, about six or seven cock ups per season, which doesn't lead directly to a goal being conceded, then I think most of us could live with that.

As you say, Mike, he's constantly making saves of the calibre of the ones against Chelsea, or Liverpool at Goodison in the season just gone, or maybe single-handedly keeping Man Utd out at old Trafford, or having the nerve to stand still for that penalty. The list goes on.

Also, if we had a more solid and reliable defence, then maybe the loss of Pickford wouldn't be felt so much, but the simple fact is, until we can get a solid defence, then we are going to need Pickford to help us. And I'm pretty sure it's something that he simply thrives on!!

Jim Lloyd
118 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:35:25
We can't get a more solid and reliable defence at the moment Rob, unless we sell someone. That is assuming, of course, that the piggy bank has little or nothing in it,

Andrew, it seems that we will have to sell to buy, unless we have sufficient funds to recruit what we need. Otherwise, it looks to me like it's going to be Groundhog Day.

Barry Rathbone
119 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:38:21
One of the many problems with football stats is the impossibility of gauging what effect the surrounding team has.

Compare Kane and Haaland on goal-scoring stats.

Haaland is the man but put him in the Spurs side and Kane in the Man City side and very likely that stat changes. Only your eyes and personal judgement can resolve that choice.

Plus stats in football can be misleading, the game is not explosive and instantaneous like many American sports, there are more variables with play being "off the cuff". The short time scale involved in American sports allows for less variables which can provide useful player stats.

And always remember stats could lead you to conclude that, for a period, the greatest player these islands ever produced was Phil Neal – Say What???

Statistically, he was the most decorated player ever for quite a long time – surely that is the ultimate proof?

Mike Gaynes
120 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:44:23
Rob #117, agreed, although I'd say Pickford did get a lot of help from one particular member of the defense this season.

One of the extraordinary stats of the year for me was Tarkowski blocking 78 shots. 78. Nobody else in the Premier League had more than 43.

We'll never know how many of those blocks would have been goals, but I'd bet the wonder save of the season didn't come from Picks himself.

(BTW Coady and Mykolenko combined for another 33 blocks, and all told Everton led the league with 180.)

Dale Self
121 Posted 19/06/2023 at 17:58:43
Barry 119, that time scale of play observation is valuable in many ways.
Joe McMahon
122 Posted 19/06/2023 at 18:12:58
England No 1, just signed a new contract — didn't they pay £70 million for the lump of wood ("Do you know who I am?") Maguire). £80 million for Pickford, end of.
Mal van Schaick
123 Posted 19/06/2023 at 18:17:03
Instead of selling our better players, we should be recruiting around them and getting rid of some of the crap on the bench.

I like Pickford and want to keep him. Although the team was poor last season, Pickford made some remarkable saves that kept us in the Premier League.

Anthony Hawkins
124 Posted 19/06/2023 at 18:57:07
Those calling for or suggesting we need a more solid or reliable defence need to look at the other end of the pitch first. This might be a controversial comment but I don't think our defence is actually that bad.

If our attack was more clinical, it means our defence would have far less of a focus and teams would be a little less confident in coming forward.

Opposition teams know we're a blunt force without someone like Calvert-Lewin leading the line, so it doesn't matter if they swarm forward. When Calvert-Lewin came into the line-up, even though he didn't score much if any, it changed the dynamic.

Put another fit, clinical striker on the pitch and the potential outcome of the game immediately changes, along with the opposition's game plan.

Pickford kept us in games last season and will be sorry to see him go (if he goes) but we desperately need a striker.

Kieran Kinsella
125 Posted 19/06/2023 at 18:58:36

I love stats. My old six-a-side team, we were unbeaten halfway through a season. Then I started having shin splints. I came off in one game we would have lost anyway but it gave me an idea…

Any time after that it seemed like a game was turning, I'd pull a James Rodriguez and hobble off, The stats show we never lost when I played a full game. Absolute proof of… something.

Eddie Dunn
126 Posted 19/06/2023 at 19:01:32
If Pickford does get sold, we will rue the day. We need to build the team around the best players that we have, not get rid of them to buy more mediocrity.
Jay Harris
127 Posted 19/06/2023 at 19:02:06
To my mind and eyes, Pickford is the good, the bad and the ugly.

Excellent at reflex saves and pretty good at distribution, stays fit pretty much and largely gets away with gamesmanship.

The ugly – doesn't command his area and unsettles other players with his constant harassment and uncertainty in the box.

The bad – I know it is a modern trend but he will not catch a ball and insists on parrying shots back into the oncoming opponents rather than away for a corner.

All keepers can have dodgy spells but personally I would prefer to play in front of a more stable keeper.

Having said all that, I would sooner keep him and not have to go shopping for someone as good or better because the likes of Henderson, Pope and Ramsdale and Leno are no longer available and we don't want a young keeper with no Premier League experience.

Brian Harrison
128 Posted 19/06/2023 at 19:08:59
Seems many good sources of information are saying this story has no legs. Everton have not received any offer for Pickford and Pickford and his family are very happy here.
John McFarlane Snr
129 Posted 19/06/2023 at 19:10:28
Hi Dale [113],

If 'Statistics Critique' means a critic of statistics, then you are spot on; like Dave Abrahams, I have no time for them. I believe that, over the years, I have developed a knowledge of football which is enough for me to recognise whether a player is having a good or poor game.

I don't have any interest in reading of how many tackles a player might make, or the distance he runs. Another thing that I have been mocked for is stating that there are some who are transforming football from a sport into a science.

I must confess that there have been positives, the two I can find time for are the goal-line technology and the shaving cream administered following the award of a free kick.

Dale Self
130 Posted 19/06/2023 at 19:22:33
John Sr. 130,

First class stuff as always. I must admit to being a stats guy but misuse or over-reliance on them really gripes my ass as some Yanks say. What Dave and you point out though is key. The dimensions of a player contributing to a football team's objectives are very difficult to capture in numbers.

I was thinking if the stats gods could give you a block of the football action measurements with each player identified in couplet or triplet around them, we might get somewhere. Then everyone could take their slice or go long and likely learn something. We are all presently squished into a stats subway going nowhere.

Mike Doyle
131 Posted 19/06/2023 at 19:43:06
Ed #110,

Last year (I think) I heard Christian Purslow (Villa's ex CEO) explain that, with very limited exceptions, payments are made to selling club over the period of years in the contract the player is signing.

So, if we signed Onana on a 5-year deal, we would be paying his club the fee in five equal instalments over 5 years.

However, Paul the Esk explained in one of his podcasts that, when a player is sold, the selling company can treat the entire fee as received in year 1. On this basis, any profit we make on any player sold will be treated as funds available to spend.

If I've got this wrong, I'll expect one of TW's accountant posters will correct me.

Also Ed, it doesn't solve the mystery of what happened to the Arteta money!

Brent Stephens
132 Posted 19/06/2023 at 19:50:06
Mike, I wonder if you mean amortisation, which as I understand it (correctly?) is where a club might pay the transfer fee in full up front but for where the accounts show only a proportion of that fee as an outgoing over several years?
Mike Doyle
133 Posted 19/06/2023 at 20:08:25
Brent #133,

As I understand it, full up-front payment of transfer fees is a rarity in the Premier League where players tend to sign multi-year contracts - and the selling club paid in stages.

The amortisation issue would apply to the buying club who would write down the value of the new player so that by the end of initial contract period the book value would be £zero.

An example of this would be Yerry Mina. Signed for £25m on a 5-year deal. At the end of each year, his book value would drop by 20% (£5M) until it reaches zero.

I guess full up-front payment could apply in lower divisions where players tend to sign shorter contracts.

Brent Stephens
134 Posted 19/06/2023 at 20:16:31
Yes, Mike, I wasn't sure if you were talking about amortisation. As you say, not unusual for fees to be actually paid over a period of years.
Ian Bennett
135 Posted 19/06/2023 at 20:26:22
Each deal will be different. Some clubs might prefer more money up front, rather than 5 equal instalments. If you string it out, the fee is likely to be bigger to reflect the selling club is helping the buyer's cash flow.

I suspect it's more likely to be 40% odd upfront, and then the balance over 3 or 4 years, with a further payment being on appearance or trophy success.

The Rooney deal had a payment for a contract renewal. Others on England caps, Champions League success, etc.

Brendan McLaughlin
136 Posted 19/06/2023 at 20:48:08
It's certainly not unusual for transfer fees to be paid over a number of years but it's very unlikely that period reflects the length of the deal agreed between the player and his new club.

Far more likely the transfer fee is paid over a completely different timeframe altogether.

Ed Prytherch
137 Posted 19/06/2023 at 20:57:26
Mike, what you wrote is how I understand the P&S accounting.

If Everton have plenty of ready cash for buying players, then selling Onana would help keep us out of P&S trouble but, if we really don't have much real money to spend, then I cannot see how it helps.

Dale Self
138 Posted 19/06/2023 at 21:04:02
Tony, Gus Poyet had Greece playing well against France. One penalty blocked early second half but a second put them behind now 1-0

They used two moves to break the French press that were well executed until the penalties.

Mike Doyle
139 Posted 19/06/2023 at 21:12:00
Ed, the general view seems to be that we don't have much cash to spend, hence it would be the profit booked on selling the likes of Onana, Pickford, Branthwaite etc – or perhaps some of it – that would be used for squad replenishment.

It seems to be accepted that we had to sell Richarlison by the end of June last year to satisfy P&S requirements. Not sure if we are under the same pressure this year as the club has already booked a big profit on the Anthony Gordon sale and a smaller one on Moise Kean.

Of course this is Everton so nobody seems sure. I wonder if Dyche & Thelwell really know?

Stephen Davies
140 Posted 19/06/2023 at 21:24:46
Simms to Ipswich.

Hope we have someone lined up.

Dave Abrahams
141 Posted 20/06/2023 at 00:44:48
Rob (117),

Just got in, had a few bevvies in Ned Kelly's so I'm a bit late replying.

All of those cock-ups Pickford made except one resulted in a goal being scored against us, the other cock resulted in him giving a penalty away, which Spurs scored, this was in the away game.

Kane also scored a penalty at Goodison which had nothing to do with Pickford except he never stood his ground and dived to one side of the goal. Kane might have slotted the ball straight down the middle, I'm not sure to be honest.

Those cock-ups were not the only ones he made last season, I mentioned a couple more that he got away with and, if I analysed all his performances, I would find a few more.

At the end of the day, it's all about opinions. I'd say more Everton fans see Jordan as a very good goalie than those of us see him in a different light. To me, if he goes, it wouldn't upset me – he's never been the great goalie that others see.

If we get a good price for him and a solid reliable replacement, that would suit me fine. Each to his own.

Alan J Thompson
142 Posted 20/06/2023 at 05:55:09
Stats, eyesight, memories!?! Who could we get that would be as good never mind better or is it still a case of the ever hopeful, "Well there must be somebody out there"?

But, hey, let's spend some cash on what we don't need or if we are going to, then bring in one of these undiscovered reasonably priced keepers as his deputy and then wait until he leaves for first team football elsewhere.

All keepers make mistakes and they are in a position where it usually means a goal so while mentioning the errors of England's No1 name one who never makes mistakes. We have the best available.

Tony Abrahams
143 Posted 20/06/2023 at 07:42:11
I've just read a tweet that says Marmite wants to leave and will be sold this summer. Fair play to Iwobi if this is true because he will be a free agent in another 12 months, meaning Everton might be able to still recoup a decent fee.

Danny O’Neill
144 Posted 20/06/2023 at 08:21:47
Iwobi grew on me, Tony. Initially, I thought he used to confuse himself, his teammates and even the opposition, which occasionally worked in our favour.

But these past two seasons, in difficult circumstances, he provided more consistency. Yes, still mistakes, but that's football. And a lot of the time, especially last season, because when he was trying to make things happen and looked up, there was nothing in front of him. Little movement on too many occasions.

I think he'd do well on the continent.

On Pickford, another Marmite case. Again, he grew on me. Once he calmed down, he was okay.

The howler at Anfield. Rushes of blood. Punting into touch like a Rugby player. Rising to Newcastle fans. Doesn't command his box as well as he should. Parrying with a soft hand into the danger area.

But then top-drawer saves that helped keep us in the Premier League two seasons running.

That Chelsea double one still has me holding my breath as much now when I watch it back as when I saw it in front of my own eyes. The save at Anfield onto the bar. The significance of that late one against Bournemouth. There are many more.

£45M seems low for England's Number 1 who has just signed a new contract.

I suppose, if it's a credible rumour, it depends on who is doing the negotiation on Everton's behalf!!!

Rob Halligan
145 Posted 20/06/2023 at 15:38:53
Dave # 141.

Maybe you could try and recall all these cock-ups that led to a goal being conceded by Pickford and note them on here, so that I can try and form an opinion myself, because it appears we may have different views as to what is and isn't a cock-up.

To me, a cock up is something like what we saw in a Champions League game at Anfield last season, one by each goalkeeper: Courtois trying to play keepie ups from a back pass and then losing the ball to Salah to score, and then the other end where Allison controlled the ball from a back pass, then blasted the ball against an incoming forward, the ball flying straight into the net.

The only other one I can recollect from last season was, I think it was De Gea in a European match at Old Trafford, when he controlled a ball, only to pass it out to an opponent which again led to a goal.

As far as I can remember, I've never seen Pickford do any of these, but that's not to say he hasn't, but certainly not in the last two seasons. I'm not saying he hasn't made errors, of course he has, the Anfield derby sticks in the mind like a sore thumb, but in the last two seasons he has really been on top of his game.

The only goals considered errors that have been brought up on here regularly were the Ward-Prowse free kick at Goodison, and the first Forest goal in the 2-2 draw, neither of which I would consider a cock-up.

As we all say though, Dave, it's all about opinions!

Dave Abrahams
146 Posted 20/06/2023 at 15:48:59
Rob (145),

Well, for a start, I didn't think the Salah goal at Anfield was a cock-up. The free-kick versus Southampton was, his lining up the defence meant he couldn't see the ball coming in and he made no attempt to save the ball, pretty much like the Man City free kick in the 3-0 defeat.

I also thought he could have come off his line for City's second goal when Haaland scored inside the 6-yard box. His poor command of his 6-yard area will always go against him being a top-class ‘keeper.

Rob, you're correct, it's all about opinions; one man's meat is another man's poison.

Rob Halligan
147 Posted 20/06/2023 at 15:55:28

I'm talking about the Salah goal against Real Madrid, when Courtois was fannying about with the ball, before Salah took it off him to score. You seriously don't think that was not a cock-up?

Dave Abrahams
148 Posted 20/06/2023 at 17:58:40
Rob (147),

I thought we were talking about Jordan's cock ups and I thought you were talking about Salah's goal in the derby game at Anfield when many fans blamed Pickford for coming out to try and stop the centre coming across but misjudged the situation and Salah was left with plenty of time to slot the ball home.

Sorry I misread your post!

Si Pulford
149 Posted 20/06/2023 at 21:55:01
All keepers make mistakes. Jordan Pickford used to make more than the very best keepers. Now he doesn't.

He probably makes about the same amount of mistakes as Ederson, Allison etc and less than De Gea, Loris etc. (However, any hint of a mistake he makes is gleefully highlighted by the likes of Keane and Neville whose cognitive dissonance forbids them from admitting they may have been wrong….)

The thing is the other end of the scale. Simply put he makes more saves that he's got no right to make, absolute worldies that save a certain goal than most keepers in the Premier League.

I can't think of another keeper in the Premier League that makes as many mad saves that should be goals.

In summary, his mistakes are in line with most keepers but his wonder saves are ahead.

Kevin Molloy
150 Posted 20/06/2023 at 22:17:25
With a team that specialises in one-nil wins he has an outsize value to us, his replacement probably costs us 6-10 more points, how much is that worth? It's the difference between staying up and going down.
Barry Rathbone
151 Posted 20/06/2023 at 23:00:28
We have no option but to sell ANY player we receive a decent offer for, resultant of the financial wizardry from the bizarre accountant who is surely still using an abacus.

Mind-blowing how an accountant can take over a football club, blow a fortune in 7 years and put the entire show on skid row for the foreseeable — what a very special fellow.

Kevin Molloy
152 Posted 21/06/2023 at 11:13:53
If this goes through at £60million, will this be the one Moyes type signing of the last 6 years where we actually made some serious money on a signing?
Kevin Molloy
153 Posted 21/06/2023 at 16:06:06
we are actually going to do this aren't we. We are going to sell another hundred million of assets out of a team that stayed up by the hair on its chinny chin chin. And then buy 4 players for £15m each.
Another painful season beckons.
Jim Lloyd
154 Posted 21/06/2023 at 16:43:28
It isn't so much a matter of whether Pickford is great or not, it's whether we need the money (and if he wants to go or not.) I'd be content if we could get big money for Onana and keep Pickford. Or we sell Onana and Pickford and could buy the players we need to make more chances, score goals and if poss, another defender, preferably another left back. If Iwobi goes, then use the money to improve the team, wherever Dyche thinks it's required.

The thing is, now, though, How can we buy anyone at all if there's a battle going on about Kenwright staying or going and others joining the board.And with our club being paralysed by the current situation. Can the Chairman, act alone if we have no accountant and no CEO.

Si Pulford
156 Posted 21/06/2023 at 18:42:19
Kevin, how long ago did we sell Lukaku?

Or Gueye to PSG?

We made decent little profits on Lookman and Vlasic too.

Disclaimer; I'm not defending our selling record by any means.

Tony Abrahams
157 Posted 21/06/2023 at 18:54:38
After reading what Simon Harrison wrote on the other thread this morning, then I'm convinced Moshiri needs to use Braille.

The blind accountant might no longer live in the desert, but he's definitely got his head in the sand when it comes to Bill Kenwright and Everton.

Barry Hesketh
158 Posted 21/06/2023 at 19:11:32
Si @156, I just read this on another site:

Consider our Transfer Business (Including Loans) since Moshiri came on board in February 2016 ahead of the 16/17 season. I've listed all fees of over 10m as "Major Transfers".

16/17: -25.2m (All Transfers)
Major Out - John Stones 55.6m
Major In - Yannick Bolasie 28.9m, Morgan Schneiderlin 23m, Ashley Williams 14m

17/18: -76.82m (All Transfers)
Major Out - Romelu Lukaku 84.7m, Ross Barkley 16.8m, Gerard Deulofeu 12m
Major In - Gylfi Sigurdson 49.4m, Jordan Pickford 28.5m, Michael Keane 28.5m, Davy Klassen 27m, Cenk Tosun 22.5m, Theo Walcott 22.5m

18/19: -71.15m (All Transfers)
Major Out - Davy Klassen 13.5m
Major In - Richarlison 39.2m, Yerry Mina 30.25m, Lucas Digne 20.2m

19/20: -33.2m (All Transfers)
Major Out - Idrissa Gueye 30m, Nicola Vlasic 23m, Ademola Lookman 18m, Henry Onyekuru 13.5m
Major In - Alex Iwobi 30.4m, Moise Kean 27.5m, Jean-Philippe Gbamin 25m, Andre Gomes 25m

20/21: -69.95m (All Transfers)
Major Out - N.A.
Major In - Ben Godfrey 27.5m, Allan 24.6m, Abdoulaye Doucoure 22m

21/22: 6.5m (All Transfers)
Major Out - Lucas Digne 30m
Major In - Vitaly Mykolenko 23.5m, Nathan Patterson 14m

22/23: 25.4m (All Transfers)
Major Out - Richarlison 58m, Anthony Gordon 45.6m
Major In - Amadou Onana 35m, Dwight McNeil 17m, Neil Maupay 11.8m, James Garner 10.4m

That is a total of -244.42m on transfers over 7 seasons. What value did Moshiri's money bring to Everton FC? What conclusions do you draw from this data? Source: Stateside Toffee c/o Grand Old Team.

Jay Harris
159 Posted 21/06/2023 at 20:17:32

You seem to have missed Moise Kean – out for £28M.

Jason Li
160 Posted 21/06/2023 at 20:32:10
Nice table Barry.

Almost all the young players have increased in value, or never lost a great amount of money. So they must have got better.

The players with Premier League experience got worse, or worth less over time, or both.

Nothing wrong with selling players if the incoming players have lots of potential with a high ceiling and just need more Premier League experience.

Maupay is the latest example amongst a number of good buys last season. Buying average players close to their peak with lots of Premier League experience won't make them much better. In fact, they have a higher chance of going down in value based on historical data in the table.

The only exception is Godfrey, nearing mid-career is near peak career soon and I hope he learns quickly to be a ball magnet when the ball is in the air like Mina. If he can't get better at defending there's a danger he's going to peak in a couple of years without fulfilling that potential seen years back in Carlo's season.

Jason Li
161 Posted 21/06/2023 at 20:54:22
Gueye another exception to the mean. A mid-career purchase who improved and also value increased.

There will always be exceptions, like Gbamin who was unlucky with an injury, like Gomes too.

The purchasing rubric has to be no expensive signings of players from 26 years old onwards. There's very few that keep on improving like Gueye throughout their career and was an exceptional fee when you look at the first two lines.

The last 2 transfer windows looks much better. Although why the recruitment team can't see every Premier League team requires a minimum of two goal-scorers. The teams in the top eight have five or 6 goal scorers in the squad - because most play 3 up top.

Tony Abrahams
162 Posted 21/06/2023 at 21:12:31
7 x -35million = -£245million. If Moise Keane hasn’t been added it brings it down to around-£220 million, but that’s before you put the ludicrous wages on top.

Year 19/20 was the sickener because after a very average start which wasn’t helped by a lot of fans not wanting Marco Silva, we really got it together in the last third of the previous season, and this is when I thought Brands showed his inexperience regards the English game?

Jason Li
163 Posted 21/06/2023 at 21:15:58
Doucoure - has he got better? Or was always a very good player at Watford and then at Everton but Lampard got it wrong? I think he's been a good solid signing, not got better or worse. Bought at his peak.

Only unfortunate thing is his value is going down in financial terms. His football contribution value is absolutely good for the squad possiblly for another couple of years though.

Robert Tressell
164 Posted 21/06/2023 at 21:17:54
Jason, I know I bang on about this all the time but that's certainly how I see it.

Until we have some serious money, there are two specific categories of player we should generally avoid:

- those over age 26 on anything other than a free or modest cost (i.e. £10m); and

- those over £20m ish unless an outstanding young talent likely to shoot up in value / occupy a place in the first XI for 5 years or more.

If you follow those principles, you would be looking at incomings of Pickford, Richarlison, Digne, Kean, Patterson, Onana, Garner, Tarkowski and McNeil. All excellent signings either on the pitch or financially - we made a decent profit on Kean despite his lack of impact on the pitch.

Anyone else is not just the wrong price, they are (based on the fact that they're willing to join us) an overpriced average player. There were at the time literally dozens and dozens of players as good as, say, Bolasie, Tosun, Walcott, Iwobi, Schneiderlin who would have cost no more than about £10m.

The two who we might have avoided through this (admittedly over-simplistic) method who (arguably) came good are Mina and Sigurdsson. Probably a price worth paying to have been forced to look elsewhere.

Oliver Molloy
165 Posted 21/06/2023 at 21:23:27
Just been listening to the radio and they were discussing Newcastle buying Gordon and having practically no impact.
Apparently Gordon has said that he wasn't ready for the step up in training compared to what he was doing at Everton - it was a shock to him !
Don Alexander
166 Posted 21/06/2023 at 21:26:27
Oliver, that's been said by several departing players as soon as they join their new club.

Oliver Molloy
167 Posted 21/06/2023 at 21:50:35

So you reckon it's an excuse from these players not getting a chance etc or is our training lacking?

I remember Benitez saying that Gordon's stamina was really lacking and he hadn't got 90 minutes in him.

Tom Bowers
168 Posted 21/06/2023 at 22:01:28
Money talks and Everton need as much as they can get.

After a lot of dross has been brought in over the last few seasons, it's no wonder they have come so close to the drop.

Pickford is the top English keeper and they should make Man Utd pay absolute top dollar for him, if indeed they feel they can let him go.

They should cut the wage bill by getting rid of a few and the choices will cause much deliberation and disagreement among the fans.

We all wait and hope positive moves will happen soon.

Jason Li
169 Posted 21/06/2023 at 22:04:14
Robert @ 164, totally agree.

Hopefully in the last couple of windows, the recruitment team realised their reputations were on the line and found a way to say to the executives what does work. I don't believe the recruitment team straight after the Moyes era would have got it so bad for a couple of years. All speculation, but that's my opinion.

Any half-educated football fan would have seen signing of expensive past-their-peak players and worsening results would lead to finger-pointing withing a couple of seasons. Again, my opinion and guess that the recruitment team had to be listened to and why it got better, with the financial constraints from all angles added to the mix.

Total speculation and just trying to logically think why it has got better (except they forgot to get more goal-scorers which has to be addressed this window).

Robert Tressell
170 Posted 22/06/2023 at 09:52:50
Barry # 119, there seem to be quite a few statistic sceptics on ToffeeWeb.

Maybe think about it this way: buying players is really not unlike commodity trading or investment in the stock market. All of it requires a detailed understanding of a market and future prospects of what you're buying with lots of complex variables etc.

Some people have a tremendously good feel for this stuff but no decisions are made without copious research and statistical analysis to manage down the risk of investing badly. Indeed, access to (and proper use of) the best information is seen as the key – as you'll note if you've ever watched the film Trading Places or read about how the Rothschilds made a fortune at the Battle of Waterloo.

This is certainly how persistent good spenders like Brighton are approaching it – and it's no coincidence that Arsenal have had such a good season off the back of buying by reference to specific roles-based statistical analysis (see an article I wrote called Air Blocker Filter Man).

There are weaknesses to statistics of course – but the same is true of the human eye. The key is using both together. But whilst there is only so far you can go with the human eye, statistics (including those which account for football as a fast-paced team sport) are getting more sophisticated all the time – and those that move with the times therefore gain an advantage.

Dave Abrahams
171 Posted 22/06/2023 at 10:00:23
Robert (170),

I imagine you could read as much as you wish about statistics including usage of braille but I think they would be useless with the human eye.

Do statistics state the faults, the player's demeanour, lack of effort, poor use of the ball, going missing in games etc, etc?

Dave Abrahams
172 Posted 22/06/2023 at 10:05:51
Dave (171),

That second line should have read, “without the human eye”.

I've tried to edit this without success, sorry about that.

Robert Tressell
173 Posted 22/06/2023 at 10:55:34
Absolutely, Dave. The point is not to replace human judgement but to massively enhance it. I have no doubt that John McFarlane Senior and others are excellent judges of players they might watch. I like to think I'm a decent judge too.

But why wouldn't you test your judgment? Maybe not quite so important if you're choosing between well-known players already playing in the Premier League.

But what about the sorts of players Brighton are buying from obscure leagues from Ireland to Paraguay with the assistance of AI analysis of statistics developed from the gambling industry?

We're talking about a detailed examination of a player's role in a team and future prospects. It's not just about goals, assists, running stats etc which I agree can all be meaningless in isolation.

It seems very Everton to stick to traditional guns and let others gain an advantage through innovation.

Dave Abrahams
174 Posted 22/06/2023 at 12:50:51
Robert (173),

Do any club buy these players going on just the statistics of these players? Surely they have to go and see them in action a few times? It would be like signing a player after watching highlights of him on YouTube.

I'm not being awkward or stubborn, I just find it hard to judge by stats, even those you quoted. A detailed player's role in a team and future prospects, don't they come under 'potential' which is just a prediction – not anything that can be seen.

As an example, if there had been statistic on Tosun what would they have likely to have been? I know it's unlikely you might know but, whatever they were, after watching him three or four times, most people would have swerved him, but not Allardyce and Walsh – they signed him!

Maybe there should be statistics on managers and coaches and their success rate in signing players. I might, but not sure, take a bit of notice of those stats.

I think it's better, Robert, if we agree to disagree over stats. It certainly doesn't stop me from appreciating your many posts about Everton and football.

Sam Hoare
175 Posted 22/06/2023 at 13:40:45

As Robert says, statistics are growing increasingly complex and there are certainly lots of stats now to evaluate managers and coaches and the differences their coaching makes to the players and the amount of points a team might get.

In terms of Tosun, there are certainly stats that compare achievements that might be easier in one league than another. These guys do exactly that:

I don't think anyone would hopefully sign a player without watching them a great deal first but, as I said earlier in the thread, why limit yourself just to one form of judgement?

John McFarlane Snr
176 Posted 22/06/2023 at 15:33:48
Hi Robert [173],

I feel flattered by your kind words, and I'm sure that Dave Abrahams and the 'others' you refer to, will enjoy the praise you bestow on them.

I am on record saying that there are some who are attempting to turn a sport into a science, and I have often asked the question 'Who coaches the coachs?

What good is a player who runs X number of yards, and fails to pass the ball accurately, and what good is a player who makes numerous tackles, and fails to make anything out of them?

I believe that, like all sports, it's possible to improve an athlete's fitness, but you can't give them the talent that they lack. I'm aware of the fact that I have exposed myself to ridicule, but that's the way I see things.

Robert Tressell
177 Posted 22/06/2023 at 16:22:57
I don't think there's anything remotely ridiculous in what you're saying John. Likewise Dave Abrahams.

In many respects, we're all talking about different slightly things. I certainly don't believe you can ever really remove the experienced human from the process.

In the world I work in though, AI and statistical analysis is already showing just how good it is at predicting the future based on huge volumes of data which help to expose patterns / problems etc. Future likelihoods / probabilities are what it is really good at - and it's getting better.

That said, I don't think a particularly sophisticated statistical model was required to identify Tosun was a bad buy.

- Physical characteristics for the Premier League (pace / athleticism): no

- Physical characteristics for the lone striker role (height / pace / running stats): no

- Has he peaked based on age: yes

- Is he recording exceptional goals / assists in Turkey: no

- Do players from the Turkish league maintain their form when moving to one of the 3 or 4 major leagues: patchy at best

- Do strikers from the Turkish league maintain their form when moving to one of the 3 or 4 major leagues: no

- Do players who failed to make the grade in Germany ever go on to succeed in the Premier League: no

I don't doubt anyone who'd seen him play would probably have drawn the same or similar conclusion!

Ray Roche
178 Posted 22/06/2023 at 16:40:46
Robert, all your stats etc are compelling but they do not take into account the possibility of a brown envelope being slipped into a waiting trouser pocket. Apparently, a chimpanzee would give Kane a run for his money when offered to the correct recipient, allegedly.
Dale Self
179 Posted 22/06/2023 at 17:10:36
Position specific statistics would be burdensome to collect but are there for club staff to process. Perhaps AI can be geared to define patterns of play and then compile stats from a recorded game. In that way the context of the team setup and opposing play gives a better window to what extent the player is performing the duties assigned and maybe where the setup contributes to the performance.

Additionally just breaking out stats for time to first goal, when ahead or behind or even would also make sense. Aggregates are good but the game regime matters.

Jim Lloyd
180 Posted 22/06/2023 at 17:40:20
Robert. I remember Southampton having a slot on a football programme, probably on the BBC. They were showing how they identified players that would interest them. Scouts and other sources of information, all pooled their observations into a computer programme and it was extremely precise in all the footballers skills, energy, physical info such as height, weight, speed and physique.

Probably loads of other info about goals scored, tackles and interceptions made. It was when Pottechino was there. They had some really top-class players come through.

So if we haven't got a programme similar to them, well, we need one. I look at Brentford and they seem to be picking excellent players who have slipped through our scouting system.

If we have a system, it's not working very well!

Barry Hesketh
181 Posted 22/06/2023 at 17:52:14
Jim @180
There has been very little that has appeared systematic at Goodison in the last few years, in fact, possibly not since the 'Cat' was in charge.

Kendall had a vision of the type of team he wanted and the players required to play in it, fortunately he was able to acquire those players and make a great team.

Beyond making a great team once in a while, it's never seemed to be in the club's DNA to have long-term planning and structures in place in order to keep all of the plates spinning and very often an unexpected event would lead to everything falling apart.

We may never be a title-winning or cup winning club for many a year to come, but there is no reason that a great deal more time and energy should not be devoted to player recruitment and retention and of course to the youth teams set-up.

Too often, when the likes of Rooney, Gordon, Rodwell et al have been sold, it's been seen as a success for the club, financially of course it's a win for the club, but we need more than that, we need a few players who are good enough to get in the first-team squad and stay there, on merit and not because we are short of numbers on occasion.

Jay Harris
182 Posted 22/06/2023 at 18:02:38
The one thing stats don't identify is the inconsistency in a player's development.

For those who remember, I'm sure the stats on Martin Murray identified a world-beater, as they did with Moise Kean but for a player who is a late bloomer (Vardy) or an early decliner (Rooney) the stats would be totally misleading.

I am not saying stats don't help but I'm with Dave and Sir John and, although we are all old school, it's your own studying of a player that tells you how good or bad he is.

Anthony Hawkins
183 Posted 30/06/2023 at 12:51:46
If De Gea goes on free, sign him up and let Man Utd have Pickford for £60M.

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