Evolution of a Top-4 Side

Our fatal flaw is not shipping out underperforming players quickly simply because we can't afford the turnover. If Andy Carrol had signed here it's quite likely he would still be on the payroll as would the keeper Karius who the shite had killed after the CL final.

Evolution is not a possibility it takes too long decent players won't hang around - see Stones and Lukaku and now potentially Richarlison. The only answer is an explosive revolution in one transfer window to build a new dynamic and actually win something, only then will decent players stay.

And "As Newcastle have just demonstrated, a crappy team can give you all sorts of problems if they’re not scared of your attack. And in reality, very few teams have a defence that looks good when you really have a go at them. The reason you don’t have a go, however, is fear of being punished by a potent attacking force given too much space on the counter."

Why in the name everything that is sacred about our club are we Evertonians talking about THEM??!?!

It fucken boils my blood, it really does. Don't you guys get enough of this pure shite on every major TV channel and website every fucking day!!

Couldn't we just have one little corner of cyberspace where the universal love-in was simply and completely ignored?

As your article is a comparison, I think I can see how we are on the up and they are showing signs of starting to come off their brief peak.

One thing that comes to mind, the RS have a good habit of selling at the peak price for players and re-investing in younger through a good manager in the Premier League era.

We did this well until Koeman and Silva derailed with slow players like Schneiderlin, meaning a bad eye for quality players, which leads to halving the price of our assets within a couple of years for each purchase.

As the RS were mentioned, I think the RS won't be maintaining their flash in the pan lofty standards soon, as their most valuable 5 players: VD, front 3 and Henderson are too old to recoup a large fee, so they are rapidly depreciating assets. Oddly enough, they have broken their own successful system that got them to where they are today and have to run a tight ship.

Using my old... ahem Football Manager system, always sell players at 28 or at worse 29 for the best price and buy the best replacement from a smaller club and not older than 23/24. That model would mean in the real world sell Digne and find a very good young left back and hope some cash is left over.

However, in this period of time we've rightly bought in experience and some very good players, because we have a very young squad already with the likes of Dom, Davies and Holgate. The mix with hungry Champions League pros like James and Allan has improved them too.

I'm looking at the squad, and think we won't be buying much more 28/29 year olds any more, unless they are outstanding and very well priced.

Hopefully, we progress now with purchases of outstanding young players because:

>Outstanding young players tend to play more often in the season (we've watched Godfrey, Baines, Coleman as a reference).
>We can keep them in the squad for more years - no need to loan them out and waste time on trying to find buyers to take them off us.
>Means less need to buy a second player to make up for buying the first player whose not right for the squad - which bloats the squad (we did four number 10s and none were right for the long-term - crikey!)
>If you sell an experienced top Premier League player who is 28 and still very effective, you will almost certainly have enough to go to the market and find an outstanding less experienced younger version of the player sold. Helps the transfer kitty grow.

Of course, all clubs have had a history of bringing in players in the late 20s or even 30s and they were excellent. That comes down to the manager not buying a name but a player who really is still outstanding. I think Carlo has that knack and judgement, because there are the outliers once a player goes over 30 if they are able to mix it twice a week chasing fliers like Pulisic or Vardy or getting away from the likes of Godfrey.

I'm optimistically seeing Ancelotti and Brands reforming the squad into the best shape in years and making the transition happen. If King helps us somehow add an extra 7 to 10 goals in total - goals, assists, pre-assists, we'll be right in the top 4 mix.

In fact, I think we'll be a very competitive squad by the end of the summer transfer window.

Income: Liverpool's worldwide fanbase and thus income through sponsorship and more.

This meant that the season they splurged god knows how much on players like Carroll, they also had the ability to buy Suarez. When they bought Keita, they also bought Fabinho. When they bough Oxlade-Chamberlain, they also bought Salah. When they bought Benteke, they also bought Firmino. and it goes on.

So they make 2 big money purchases, and even if one flops, it isn't much of an issue.

Wheras Everton spend big on Sigurdsson, and that's our budget and we won't be buying a 40 million + player for lord how knows.

As much as the media like to praise their asses off, and will talk constantly of Robinson as to how good they are in the transfer market, their keeper cost 70 million, their centre back 70 million, Keita 60 million, Mane 40 million, Wijnaldum 30 million, Salah 40 million, Oxlade Chamberlain 40 million, Fabinho 50 million, Jota 40 million.

And that's not including the 20 odd players bought for between 15-25 million that were not successes (Lallana, Shaqiri, Clyne, Lovren and more).

So what makes a top-4 team?

Spending money, and continuously spending money until you get ir right.

If we are to compare Everton to any other teams in the league, then Leicester, Spurs, Villa, West Ham are the ones that merit comparison. Similar in levels of income, fanbase and financial power.

Bullseye!!

Anyway, so how did a Leicester side in the doldrums under Claude Puel revive their fortunes as Champions League contender?

17/ 18 season they finished 9th (behind Everton in 8th)
18/19 season they finished 9th (behind Everton in 8th)

But then they appoint Rodgers:

19/20 season they finish 5th ahead of Spurs, Arsenal and us in (for fuck's sake) 12th.

20/21 season they seem likely to contest a top 4 place, although might miss out to a much richer club.

That jump from 9th to 5th is a big one, especially for a club like Leicester who (recent success aside) are not a big club at all.

How did they do it?

Their 18/19 season team is something like this:

Schmeichel
Pereira
Chilwell
Maguire
Evans
Ndidi
Silva
Tielemans (3)
Maddison (7)
Gray (4)
Vardy (18)

That's a pretty good team - with a few young players bedding in - but the loss of Mahrez from the previous season has hurt them big time.

Who did they buy?

- Tielemans £45m (age 21)
- Perez £33m (age 26)
- Praet £20m (age 25)
- Justin £7m (age 21)

That gave them a really classy midfield trio + Perez and Maddison hovering behind the ageless Vardy. It also gave them an excellent versatile full back.

In addition, and this is really significant, they didn't need to spend money on replacing Maguire - because they'd already bought in a replacement. Caglar Soyuncu had been bought the previous year for £20m from Freiburg in Germany. He was 22 at that time and had a year to settle in order to really hit the ground running last season. They didn't really miss Maguire at all. So they could spend all the Maguire sale proceeds on reinforcing the midfield and astutely buying Perez, who has excellent assists and goals record in the Prem and is a very good foil for the more prolific Vardy.

So really they did it because Rodgers is a better coach than Puel by some distance. They also did it by clever acquisition (something they have a knack for).

They have tried to develop an all round team rather than go all out attack. I think that's right for them. At the end of the day, they are just Leicester. Even now, opposition teams probably worry more about Arsenal than they should and much less about Leicester than they should. They'll never have the fear factor about them.

We're a notch above. A bit more like Spurs - but Spurs a just more developed than us because of the stadium and greater riches in recent times.

We can, I maintain, spend relatively little on reinforcements at full back and even midfield now (Dagba at c. £15m is not materially worse than Aarons at c £30). The key thing is to develop as an attacking force with forward / wide players who can star for Everton over the next 5 years or more. That is particularly important next season because summer 2022 we are likely to lose Richarlison if he's not gone already. We could even, heaven forbid, lose DCL. So we need to stock up in advance to make sure it doesn't hurt if that does happen.

This is particularly the case as you say in attack. A Top 4 attacker can pass and shoot with either foot, as well as head the ball. They also can link play, beat their marker, get 10 seconds of space and shoot with accuracy and power. A Top 4 side also has a Top 4 goalkeeper. In the Newcastle game, Pickford showed he was the difference between a Top 4 place and not.

You are correct that an attacking threat is essential against most teams to prevent them pushing up in support and that midfield has to be in control and able to snuff out counter-attacks. I think that the introduction of King, who looks unfit, will between now and the Summer put increased pressure on Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison for the above reasons. The commentator's 'weak foot' comments eradicated.

I do think that Ancelotti's goal is to fulfil the requirement you outlined and he has started to work on changes.

As Fran says, we can't (unfortunately) keep spending until we get it right. And Usmanov seems to have little interest in a higher profile. So with a limited budget it makes sense to buy Olsen on the cheap and save our pennies for dynamic attacking players - especially in wide positions (willing as he is, I've never been convinced Richarlison is a winger).

A major upgrade on our GK is secondary right now.

You where right to draw the comparison with our neighbours. It was the best way to get your point across and simplified your analysis. Other Clubs had too many variables and Moshiri though he has dug deep is looking for more good footballing solutions.

I completely agree with your assessment of Leicester, and their purchases after the sale of Maguire shows the kind of joined-up thinking that we so sorely lacked when Koeman and Walsh got involved. However, it's worth saying that Leicester – along with the other clubs mentioned in comparison – have wasted lots of money too.

Slimani cost a fortune and has (I think) finally left on a free transfer. They also spent big on a Portuguese midfielder (Adrien Silva? Not 100% but like Michael I try and keep my focus on us so I'm not gonna give Google my time). Pretty sure that was a big splurge and they couldn't play him for 6 months. West Ham are another that have wasted millions (Carroll again, Haller they recently sold at a huge loss) but their recruitment has improved since Moyes took over...

What does this tell us? Well, as Fran said, it's a mixed bag. The Premier League has been awash with cash. Recruitment can work and also fail spectacularly. The only difference with us is that the ratio between good buys and those we are lumbered with has not been good enough. We've also had new managers who have overseen major overhauls – even Allardyce's brief tenure has left us with picking some of Walcott's wages on loan and Tosun's at Besiktas.

We certainly have got a base to work from. Yep, there are problem positions and still bodies to move on. But hopefully with Carlo in charge and given the time that the aforementioned managers have had, we can turn that corner. In the summer, I expect to see a few choice additions where we need them (in goal, full-back, an attacking player).

We may not be exactly where we want to be but we are headed in the right direction. Beating Man Utd tonight and Spurs in the cup would certainly help. COYB.

The Leicester purchase of Slimani who you mention is a real lesson. He was bought age 27 for £31m having never played in a top league. When he arrived in a top league, he looked no better than the very average strikers who get about 5 or 6 a season for clubs at the bottom of the Premier League. He was an £8m player bought for £31m.

At his age, he was never going to improve. His peak was going to be to bang in goals in weak leagues. But because he'd been given a Premier League wage, no club in a weak league could afford to buy him back. His destiny was to go out on underwhelming loans until released for free.

This is the identical story to Tosun.

Contrast the situation with Kean. Bought young, we will make a profit even though many on here think he's absolute garbage. Contrast with possibly our weirdest ever signing, Onyekuru. Again, bought young and we make a profit on the sale even though he never kicked a ball for us.

So you can improve your chances in the transfer market by buying young - because you can shift the failures fairly easily and even make a profit in the process (Lookman, Vlasic, Onyekuru etc).

It also means those who work out (eg Godfrey) can be a fixture in the side for 5 to 10 years (even more). This means you don't need to keep recruiting 5 or even more players each season at great cost and risk.

We have wasted a fortune on ready made players (Walcott, Tosun, Schneiderlin, Sigurdsson, Delph etc) and also splashed out a fortune on wages on players who were essentially reserves for previous clubs or expensive free transfers and have simply come for the money (Mina, Bernard, Gomes etc).

Like you have alluded to, if we buy 5 young hungry players (Godfrey, Holgate, DCL etc) and only 2 work out, then we can likely recoup our money on the other 3. We can then re-invest. If the 2 that are a success stay for years then we will always have a blend of young and experienced players. In addition, because the players are coming to the club to prove themselves and not just for a big contract, we are less likely to get the dour uncommitted performances that we get with certain freeloaders.

The issue for a section of toxic Everton fans is having the patience to let the young recruits integrate into the team and the mistakes that will be made while doing this. It is a long term strategy that requires patience and tolerance. Unfortunately, since we came into money, a significant section of the fan base expect instant success and will be openly abusive to any youngster learning their craft (think of the abuse received by Davies, Kenny, DCL, Holgate, Barkley, Kean etc).