Ambition is our guide, not a distraction.

With everything that has gone on at Everton in recent years, you could be forgiven for thinking that what goes on on the pitch is not necessarily many people’s or indeed the organisation’s utmost priority.

At the cusp of change, and despite a few wobbles along the way, we are at that point; there’s no doubt in my mind, we have to leave the current Everton, the old Everton behind. 

There is a huge need for reform and transformation on a scale that’s never been seen at Everton and I suspect few other clubs. Football clubs, despite representing the pinnacle of their professional sport, tend to be deeply conservative organisations with small “c” conservative fanbases, and (with only a few exceptions) highly resistant to change. 

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Change is going to define us. The scope, scale and speed of change is what will move us from a barely functioning organisation struggling to survive to a modern, self-assured, assertive and competitive football club. A club that knows itself, knows where it is heading competitively and is confident in engaging with all stakeholders, specifically and with priority, including fans, not from a sense of duty, but with purpose and ambition.

Rightly, heritage, culture and the identity of a football club and its fans, particularly one with a history so rich and a connection to its city, with its contribution to the development of the game nationally and globally, is important and carries great value. It creates a unique identity and an invaluable IP all of its own. Something in the hands of skilled commercial operators to be exploited appropriately, thoughtfully but productively. A new Everton should embrace all of this and implement its values and principles effectively and meaningfully to the benefit of the club, city and all stakeholders.

Let’s be clear, leaving the old Everton behind is not a betrayal of its principles. The betrayal of its principles is leaving a system of failure in place.

The system of failure is something that has been allowed to evolve over time. Like a poorly maintained car, or a building left to rack and ruin, Everton’s ability to compete, our ability to make the correct decisions and then execute them well, has deteriorated. Unfortunately, in the last few years, this deterioration has accelerated at a time when greater competition (the emergence of state funding in football) and macro conditions (Covid and specifically for Everton, the illegal invasion of Ukraine) have created strong head-winds blowing against an increasingly weakening (in absolute and relative terms) entity.

So what do we want from a new Everton?

In simple language, we require an organisation that maximises the amount of resources available to create a successful football team, whilst simultaneously building infrastructure, systems and people that use those resources as efficiently as possible and with greater intellect and purpose than our competitors. 

When evaluating the potential for any company to compete in any market place, we have to look at the existing resources and product on offer, we have to look at the amount of new resources which can be made available to improve and develop, and look at the quality of the people who are going to plan and execute the strategies which make us competitive and perform in line with our ambitions and beyond in the future.

Existing resources

Clearly when we look at the existing resources and footballing product available, the cupboard is exceedingly bare. Years of poor performance, lack of leadership, bad decision-making, appalling recruitment, and an overly expensive capital project have taken their toll both financially but also in respect of the personnel. On a relative basis, it is difficult for a poorly performing company with no obvious answer to its problems to recruit and retain the best people in the sector.

In Sean Dyche, we have a manager who in the short term at least, will maximise the output of the people, players and resources available to him. This coming season will yet again be defined by our ability to remain in the Premier League. Alongside him, Kevin Thelwell must be given the opportunity to demonstrate his skills in organising the football infrastructure but also recruitment. Clearly, despite all the resource issues the club has, new recruitment, strengthening the squad is essential in the short term. Longer term a very different, more modern, data-driven, possibly even AI-driven approach is needed.

Given the background of the MSP people, a portfolio management approach to squad composition has to be the long-term objective. A club that has a pathway through the academy that may produce players for ourselves, and if not for us, valuable assets to be sold to other clubs. A trading policy that annually refreshes the squad with ins and outs, hopefully generating player trading profits to reinvest and strengthen. An age, skill and experience profile that makes us competitive on the pitch and in line with our ambitions. A wage and transfer fee structure that not only offers good and fair value but sits comfortably within the resource framework available.  Having said that, we have to be practical about what can be done between now and 12 August, the start of the season, these are all longer-term objectives.

I talked about the scope, scale and speed of change. In recruitment plus in football management and administration, this is critical. The old practices of the past, the owner’s involvement, the chairman, the decision-making processes, the crazy contract agreements we have entered into, the reliance on agents and advisors has to be swept aside. Even though there are obviously long-term strategic plans and decisions to be made, a more practical, immediate tactical decision has to be made in entrusting recruitment, the squad and preparation for the new season to our existing footballing professionals.


Resource is a huge issue, both in terms of finance but also personnel (more later). Financially the club was on the edge of the precipice. The combination of maxing out on credit lines, a significant increase in interest costs, Moshiri’s inability/unwillingness (despite the assurances to the auditors) to go beyond the £70 million he injected earlier in the financial year, the operational performance of the business and the incessant capital demands of Bramley-Moore Dock was pushing us to the limit. The emergency (I don’t use that word lightly) funding from Andy Bell and also a smaller contribution from MSP has reduced the immediate pressure. Stadium payments are in line with agreements and the work continues.

However, the short-term funding solution doesn’t meet the future needs of the business. Classically, a clear sign of a business in trouble is when it relies upon short-term funding for long-term capital projects. Referring to the expression used before – scope, scale and speed of change – nowhere is this more vital than in restructuring Everton’s balance sheet through the provision of long-term capital, reasonably priced at the expense of existing shareholders not the profit and loss account and from investors with the appetite to provide what is likely to be several further tranches of funds in the next few years. A move away from a heavy reliance on debt to equity investment is required.  Not only does it reduce interest costs, in my opinion, it keeps investors keen, invested and engaged. All things being equal, their investment return is linked to performance.

If MSP is to be that organisation, then a schedule of future investment (plotted against the future needs and expectations of the business) has to be published. Alongside details of future funding, how is it going to be spent? And by whom? Who are going to be the custodians of the new Everton? What is their vision for a new Everton?

People and systems

As has been proven throughout the Moshiri years, money alone is not the solution to the problem – it has to be invested into an organisation with the right people, the right strategy, the right systems and above all else the right leadership. A leadership that can make the correct decisions but then implement them in a timely and productive manner.

In politics, Governments are said to get tired after a long spell in power; well, this is a tired organisation, full of tired practices and most importantly people. Incoming investors, executives and board members must recognise this and be prepared to act very quickly to change the people at the top of the organisation and to change the culture. Strong assertive leadership is necessary from day one. This is not a situation whereby a gradual transfer of power and influence can be implemented over time. It requires the removal of the existing  Chair, and a very clear understanding of the future role that Moshiri plays in the business. Clearly a man who has invested £750 million and for now at least maintains a majority stake will have influence, but he represents the old Everton and we need a new Everton.

We need the incoming investors to recognise the scope, scale and speed of change that is necessary. Not just change for change’s sake, replacing tired directors and executives with slightly up-graded versions of what has gone before. We need reformers, we need visionaries, we need credible, experienced, worldly business people who not only can recover this business but set it on a new path, a path to success, a path consistent with the true principles of a successful football club, a path we have not trodden (being blunt) since the days of John Moores. 

The key to a new Everton, an Everton that meets the expectations of generations of supporters, and who will thrill and delight future Evertonians, is change. Change in every respect. It is change that will define our future. Change that is not a betrayal of our past principles, but the implementation of everything that we know is good about, and expected from Everton Football Club, its legal owners and those charged with delivering an Everton fit for its status in the game and its legions of supporters locally, nationally and around the globe.

We have perhaps one last chance to deliver. New investors, new board members, new executives, existing players and coaches, the responsibility to change is yours. Remove the systems of failure, reinvigorate this global bastion of club football and build a New Everton.

Reader Comments (117)

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Billy Bradshaw
1 Posted 28/06/2023 at 21:34:34
Please send a copy of this to Everton, Paul.
Alex Gray
2 Posted 28/06/2023 at 22:35:48
Great article.

My concern about all of this is the overall strategy at Everton. I still don't believe there is one in place apart from "get to the new stadium".

When Moshiri came in, he obviously had the impression that throwing money at the wall will work, which it didn't.

Afterwards, I actually felt in safe hands when Brands and Silva were in charge. The idea of buying young players with big resale value in the long term would have kept us in a financially stable place. For whatever reason, we abandoned that at some point and have never looked back at it.

The big worry was as Ancelotti left. The second P&S was announced to be a problem, I feel like our plan has been short term and each year makes it more difficult to change. Gone are smart investments for the future and our on-the-field plan Has literally been Premier League experienced players regardless of age or even sometimes ability.

We're now in a position where buying young promising players is going to be hard because we now have other teams in the league (Brentford, Brighton etc) who have that idea and are more attractive.

My big concern is Moshiri isn't interested and it's been clear for a long time he's not invested. He's never been a big communicator (one of our biggest flaws) but I honestly remember about three interviews in the last four years, two of which came out on TalkSport and the other saying we'll get a striker which we know how that ended.

He's been to a handful of games in the last 3 or 4 years and whilst in his early days he was accused of getting too involved, the question I pose is who actually runs our club? Who makes the decisions for the future regarding where the team is going? It certainly wasn't Brands and you could understand if an Everton fan asked "Who is Kevin Thelwell?" because the bloke is a ghost.

The same goes to all the off-field issues. We generate no money. That has shown no signs of change anytime soon. We clearly relied on a certain Oligarch and had no backup plan. Commercially we are non-existent. There are Championship clubs that, sky money aside, bring in more money than us.

Right now, we need leadership. Even if that was a club communicator who said "this is our plan for the next five years, sacrifices will be made for the long term". It still feels like panic stations and nobody is willing to take the accountability and make the tough choices needed on and off the pitch.

The shining light could very well be that MSP come in and revamp the club top to bottom. This summer, with all the stuff going on off the pitch, the club seem to have forgotten that, right here, right now, the team needs quality or we will be relegated. Then any plan is truly out the window.

Kunal Desai
3 Posted 28/06/2023 at 22:45:51
Good post, Paul. Agreed on scope, scale and speed of change. I would also add succession planning.

This has been far from evident at the club both in an off-field and on-field capacity.

Tony Everan
4 Posted 28/06/2023 at 23:07:28
Thanks Paul, your passion for the club is shining through.

What concerns me is that ugly word ‘debt'. Managing the debt is going to be crucial. Moving to the new ground is without a doubt a game changer, but the challenge is to make it work financially for Everton's investment in the squad as well as returns for our investors.

Peter Moore
5 Posted 28/06/2023 at 23:19:20
Thank you, Paul.

This is a crucial summer indeed.

Tim Coglan
6 Posted 28/06/2023 at 23:40:00
One of the most important issues (in my opinion) is to undo Moshiri's recent decision to keep Kenwright involved, in the supposedly, short term, because of his expertise over transfers.

That is exactly the issue that he has no success in, and therefore he needs to be jettisoned. The Director of Football should be doing this.

However, with us, a constantly revolving door of the relevant people continues, whilst (in my view) an interfering buffoon makes the incorrect choices, but with no accountability.

Pete Clarke
7 Posted 28/06/2023 at 00:21:57
Hello, Paul, and great to see you open a new thread with a clear outline of what we need to do to get back on the tracks.

It's very very hard not to be skeptical of anything related to Everton especially with the man in total control leaving Kenwright in place to make important decisions when it's clear he's not capable of this.

The recent changes at board level were more or less forced upon the club by both the supporters and the need for investment due to bad business losses; otherwise, it's fair to say Moshiri would not have changed anything.

We can only hope that the input of MSP and the fresh faces on board are not yes men and we do indeed change our ways for the better as we slowly make the move from Goodison Park to the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock.

I hope this coming season is the making and not the breaking of Sean Dyche. All of this pressure of change is directly related to results on the pitch and it's a tough gig for him this season.

As it is now with only more weakening of the playing staff, we go into this coming season with the main goal of avoiding the drop. Dyche needs help from above and I don't mean literally.
Jerome Shields
8 Posted 29/06/2023 at 00:52:01
Paul, this is something similar to a previous article. There is no will to implement such changes. The sacking of Barrett- Baxendale, Sharp and Ingles was not to appease the fans, more to appease the authorities and conditions set by MSP.

The new regime is a hodge-podge of the old regime. Things are not going to change anytime soon. I am absolutely convinced that the present regime will continue as it always has done.

The single factor that will determine the coming season will be how Dyche manages the threadbare squad.

Dupont Koo
9 Posted 29/06/2023 at 02:32:08
Great clarity as always, Paul. Thank you.

Especially during a de-facto Transfer Embargo being imposed due to the imminent incoming of a sizeable shareholder in MSP.

We now know how Walsh, Brands & Thelwell have been compromised by Moshiri & Liar Bill on everything from Players Recruitment to Club Infrastructure: we were able to attract quality professionals who can put together the right type of strategy for the club. They were never, however, allowed by Moshiri & Liar Bill to do what they are capable to do.

Derek Thomas
11 Posted 29/06/2023 at 05:45:14
The only plan Moshiri has, or maybe wants right now, is to get the Stadium done and sold before the football side goes totally tits up.

Moshiri wants out and the first offer he feels he can live with will see him gone... and sod those left behind.

Danny O’Neill
12 Posted 29/06/2023 at 05:56:15
Very thoughtful and great piece, Paul, as always.

We need a new Everton. A fresh and forward-looking Everton.

Be proud of our history and heritage. We should be and take it with us. Other clubs do so but look forward.

But don't live in the past. Everton never did. We were a forward-looking club. We had many firsts in terms of team, stadium and even down to the pitch.

But then we stood still. We lived in the past. That has to change and, to the theme of your article, we need a new Everton.

A new Everton that can embrace its history and heritage, but moves forward to compete.

That's all we want. Compete.

We have an opportunity to do this now. So grasp it.

I wouldn't call it last chance saloon. Those who know me know that I wouldn't ever accept that. But the runway is getting shorter and we need to apply the throttle and take off.

Realise your potential Everton. The term 'sleeping giant' is an often coined phrase. Being around the grounds and amongst the supporters these past seasons, a neutral really would have struggled to understand we were fighting relegation.

Forget sleeping giant status. We are a dormant volcano waiting to explode on a Vesuvius scale.

But that can only happen with a new Everton.

Tony Everan
13 Posted 29/06/2023 at 07:26:07
Dupont #9, ‘Liar Bill’.

The abstract noun would be Liar-Bill-ity.

Mal van Schaick
14 Posted 29/06/2023 at 07:26:50
Aside from the Stadium, some great memories of the past, and our trophy cabinet there's not a lot of the old Everton left anyway.

We all have visions of Everton being great again, but our more recent history tells a story of decline on the pitch, and of some serious financial issues off the pitch with a board that has a strained relationship with its fans (to say the least).

A new Everton would consist of stability on and off the pitch, with a great squad, a manager who has an aura about themselves, bringing enthusiasm and enjoyment to the players and the club and the the fans.

We only need look at Man City to realise the benchmark that we need to achieve to have any chance of being a ‘A New Everton'.

Danny Baily
15 Posted 29/06/2023 at 07:27:50
Danny, it's crowded at the top these days, unfortunately. Things can change, but right now there's little scope to see us compete in any meaningful or sustained way.
Danny O’Neill
16 Posted 29/06/2023 at 07:56:08
I guess City might have thought that against Gillingham in the last minutes when they were minutes away from staying in the 3rd tier of English football.

The "noisy neighbours" soon made their way to the top and had their voice heard.

Anything is possible. Believe.

Si Pulford
17 Posted 29/06/2023 at 08:35:40
Danny that was before FFP really kicked in and P&S didn't exist. Man City were allowed to spend what they want to get success. Fair play to them, is football the only game where the owner of the business isn't allowed to invest on said business as they see fit?

Anyway, we do need a new Everton. But the idea of a new Everton as an Everton that wins things is a pipe dream.

The system is so concretely and obviously set up to protect a super league Top 6 that we won't be dining at that table for a long long time.

There are very few outliers in the league table versus wages stats in the Premier League era. Simply put, the rich are getting richer. It's almost Tory in its make up. You have to be a rich successful business to be allowed to spend more, ensuring you will keep pulling in huge revenues. If anyone else wants in, they will be punished.

It's sad but the likes of Brighton are the blueprint. UTFT

Eddie Dunn
18 Posted 29/06/2023 at 08:55:39
Such an accurate article, Paul, but the two main problems we have are still in office.

One of them is an interfering fool and the other is a divisive figure with a track record of also bungling interference in transfers and appointments.

Will the professionals be allowed to do their jobs?

We need players, so need funds available. The new investment is for the stadium. We shall soon see if the budget is zero or if they have any kind of war chest.

Jerome Shields
21 Posted 29/06/2023 at 09:26:23
A failed Chairman is never going to oversee the rejunivation of a club.
Rick Tarleton
22 Posted 29/06/2023 at 10:02:23
A superb analysis, cogently expressed. Thank you, Paul. It ought to be a set book for anyone who has a place on our Board. I share your hopes, but fear it will not happen.
Clive Rogers
23 Posted 29/06/2023 at 10:28:16
For a club in crisis, such as Everton, why would anybody appoint an interim board? The people involved know they won't be there long so won't be too concerned about their decisions.

We had one idiot on the board who knows nothing about football, now we have two. Sharp has gone and not been replaced so there is no football knowledge whatsoever.

Stu Darlington
24 Posted 29/06/2023 at 10:28:38
Agree totally with the points you make, Paul. You are writing from the perspective of what is in the best interests of Everton FC. Something I'm sure all true Evertonians will subscribe to.

The problem is we have an Owner and Chairman who have different agendas.

The Owner is not a football person. He seems to have no clue or interest in the main product of the club, ie, football, rarely making an appearance at Goodison, leaving the day-to-day management of the club to his chosen Chairman.

I still can't get my head round why he would even consider owning a football club with his business background. His decision to leave the running of the club to his chosen Chairman and then staunchly supporting him despite his appalling record and steady decline of the club is one of the root causes of our problems.

As you quite rightly say, we need reformers, visionaries who are concerned with taking the club forward to the next level.What have we got? Dabblers! No structure, no coherent plans, sometimes even disagreeing on transfers and appointments in the club. A recipe for disaster! with no end in sight!

In this respect, Paul, your article is idealistic, a wish list for an ideal world, unless new investors come along with enough money to insist on a complete clean sweep at the top.

I'm afraid MSP are just not putting up enough money to do that, so we will be stuck with these two yo-yos at least until Moshiri can sell the new stadium and recoup some of his losses.

Barry Rathbone
25 Posted 29/06/2023 at 10:48:38
You can change the paintwork and add as many body kits as you like but you won't transform a Renault Clio into a blistering Clio RS unless you have the cash to get the 3-litre engine.

Bar the exception proving the rule, Leicester (what happened to them?), no club has been transformed into challengers by tinkering around the edges.

Kevin Molloy
26 Posted 29/06/2023 at 12:36:55
Hi Paul,

I'm always a bit dubious about 'change'. We hear it a lot, 'Oh you mustn't fear change, embrace it, it's coming anyway'.

'Change' it seems to me, as a concept, is meaningless. We need competence. We need Bill to go, and people with professional sports experience to pipe down the idiot in Monaco, and start to plan for next season the way all the other clubs are doing.

We already have a competent manager and some good players, we just need 3 more players, a bit of churn, and on we go.

Niall McIlhone
27 Posted 29/06/2023 at 12:46:43
Your piece very clearly sets out what's involved in restoring Everton FC to former glories, Paul.

There is no doubt in my mind that the crux of the problem is engendering cultural change – reputedly the most difficult process in driving up organizational development.

That said, I feel that in Dyche, we have the ideal manager at this point in time to keep a cool head, and hopefully he will be given the resources to bring about the improvements needed on the pitch.

Dyche and his coaching team had little or no time to "learn on their feet" last season. All I think we are entitled to expect –given the challenges you highlight – is a reasonable improvement, particularly in home results next season

Also, an overhaul of the fitness and conditioning regimes, as clearly until Dyche came on the scene, the players were not fit enough on match days, and this will have been reflected also in a higher rate of in-game injuries.

Paul Tran
28 Posted 29/06/2023 at 13:09:20
A good article and call to arms, Paul.

Change always brings two things; discomfort and opportunities.

The oligarch's mate has to admit he doesn't know how to sort this business out. Young Mr Grace has to admit that his culture, along with himself, is outdated and must be swapped for something fit for purpose in 2023.

This is an opportunity for both men to sit back and let others run the place properly and increase the value of their investment, shareholding and assets.

It's an opportunity for the staff to play their part in turning the club into a professional, effective business.

We found competence for the dugout almost by default. Now it's time to have that competence at the top and throughout the club.

I saw first-hand at Man City the daunting and exciting view some senior staff had of the Mansour takeover. Cosy, coasting City was about to be turned into a competent, demanding business.

We won't have City's budget, but the principles of competence are universal. It's all about the will required to install and maintain them.

Paul's best point is that standing still would be the ultimate betrayal of our history and values. It's a big test of what Moshiri and Kenwright really want, isn't it?

Mark Taylor
29 Posted 29/06/2023 at 13:22:16
To paraphrase that line from the movie, Airplane, we picked a fine time to seek new long term funding for the stadium
Tony Abrahams
30 Posted 29/06/2023 at 13:32:50
Barry @25.

We have been tinkering around the edges for years mate, but the nepotistic poison is embedded deeply into the fabric and, unless it's removed, then we will be very lucky to avoid relegation a third time.

John Keating
31 Posted 29/06/2023 at 15:01:03
Great post, Paul, and just confirms everything we have discussed over years. Unfortunately, while Moshiri still persists on employing a serial loser in Kenwright, nothing will change.

Possibly our new investors can insist or ask Moshiri to bin Kenwright… who knows? If so, maybe we have a chance to progress. If not, I doubt nothing much will change.

Ian Pilkington
32 Posted 29/06/2023 at 15:13:38
Thank you for another fine article Paul.

We have learned over the last 23 years that the totally selfish and incompetent Kenwright is only interested in himself, whilst Moshiri’s unbelievably stupid decision to retain him as Chairman, even if for only a few more weeks, leaves our club in a desperate state of limbo.

Unless MSP appointees join the board within days and start to implement change, the prospects for next season appear to be extremely dismal.

Their football portfolio is unimpressive and it is very disappointing that they seem unable to fund a much larger shareholding which would surely be required for them to take control.

Is their plan to eventually gain control and then sell out to a mega rich Middle Eastern buyer? Does Moshiri have the same thoughts?

In the meantime we are left with salvation delayed by every second Moshiri and Kenwright remain in position.

Ed Prytherch
33 Posted 29/06/2023 at 15:46:35
Stu, some have suggested that Moshiri's ownership of Everton was part of a money laundering operation for Usmanov.
Paul Kossoff
34 Posted 29/06/2023 at 16:00:12
I hate to put a damper on all this positiveness, but I think we are being fattened up for the kill, driven to the slaughter house, led down the garden path, taken to the cleaners. We have no new investments, the money from MSP is a loan, the stadium has not been paid for,no money for transfers, selling off what little asset's we have left, and fkg Kenwright and Moshiri are still here. Plus a possible points deduction or heavy fines and maybe a transfer embargo, and a dreadfully weakened squad where are the positives? Believe me I am shit scared of our clubs future, we are so heavily in debt that makes us nearly unsaleable. Positives, where are they?
Awaits answers.
Dave Lynch
35 Posted 29/06/2023 at 16:21:11
im with you Paul.
What we want, what we get and what is capable of being delivered are poles apart.
I said in another post that we will be scrapping around on deadline day for misfits and ill stand by that.
We are in much worse shape than we realise I think.
Barry Hesketh
36 Posted 29/06/2023 at 16:24:13
Paul @34

Have a listen to Paul the Esk's podcast with Roger Armstrong for some of the answers you seek, I realise that it's only one man's opinion but it does give us all a little hope as far as I'm concerned, even if it may take longer than we'd like.

results business Episode 3

Dave @35

We narrowly avoided relegation, we haven't got much wriggle room in the market place, what on earth are you expecting from this summer?

John Raftery
37 Posted 29/06/2023 at 16:40:29
Presumably Paul’s reference to an ‘overly expensive capital project’ relates to the increased costs of the new stadium. I’m unsure what could have been done to reduce those costs without compromising the quality of the finished edifice.

It seems to me one way of starting to restore confidence among everyone connected with the club would be a much earlier than usual publication of the accounts for the current financial year ending tomorrow. That’s assuming they show we have moved towards compliance with Profit and Sustainability rules. If we haven’t we really are in big trouble and not just with the 25th October independent commission hearing in mind.

Barry Rathbone
38 Posted 29/06/2023 at 16:45:03
Paul @34,

You may find a lot of fans share your feeling but the dreaded "stop being negative" shout precludes their head popping above the parapet.

Arguably we are in the grimmest times in the club's history.

Barry Hesketh
39 Posted 29/06/2023 at 16:57:24
I don't think there are very many Evertonians who think we're in good shape, and even fewer who believe that all the wrongs of the past few years will be righted in short order. To call the optimists out for trying to see some positives because it flies in the face of most of the evidence doesn't really help does it?

I might live another thirty years, I may be gone in the next thirty seconds, however, there's no point in worrying about it, therefore, despite the knowledge that the end will come at some point, I refuse to be pessimistic and hope to continue for as long as possible.

I apply the same attitude to Everton, it looks bad, it may get worse, but at long last, it looks as if there are some changes afoot, at least let's see how it goes before throwing in the towel, because if there's no hope at all, we may as well fold the club and find something else to occupy our time.

Dave Lynch
40 Posted 29/06/2023 at 17:02:32
I'll tell you what I'm expecting Barry.
Not a repeat of the shit show of the last transfer window..
Players in early and a couple of players who can actually score goals.
Not too much to ask really from a club that BK thinks is run well.
Barry Hesketh
41 Posted 29/06/2023 at 17:12:47
Dave @40
It was very unlikely that any purchases would be made before the end of this financial year, so as far as I'm concerned the window truly opens from Saturday for Everton. Obviously if we get to mid to late July without any movement inwards, we may have a cause to complain, let's see what transpires, then we can react accordingly.
Robert Tressell
42 Posted 29/06/2023 at 17:37:13
I really enjoy your articles, Paul, but I disagree that this is our last chance as a club to deliver. It might more accurately be Moshiri / Kenwright's last chance - but the club will carry on just as Rangers, Leeds, Forest etc have even if things get much worse than they are now. Look where Brighton were a few years ago etc etc.

You're absolutely right about ownership / investment etc but I am confident that we will finish the transfer window with a better squad than we finished last season. In particular, I am sure we will have a decent striker to compete with DCL - we just will.

The key really is to hang on in there until we've moved into BMD. Unless there's big investment (unlikely) then we'll just have to run frugally for a few seasons - but crucially it doesn't stop us buying very good players.

Be patient, see what we look like when the window closes and support Dyche. That's all we can do.

Barry Rathbone
43 Posted 29/06/2023 at 17:48:31
Barry @39,

"To call the optimists out for trying to see some positives because it flies in the face of most of the evidence doesn't really help does it?"

If they are wrong and Moshiri is making decisions based on apparent fan consensus from forums (positive or negative) then yes it does help.

I would suggest the revolving door policy of managers in and out is a direct result of listening to fans and it's nearly killed us.

Diverse opinion should not only be encouraged but pursued with vigour.

Ian Bennett
44 Posted 29/06/2023 at 17:51:24
The danger for Everton is not just slipping down a league, or going into administration.

It's losing the new stadium or just being it's Tennant.

Bill Hawker
45 Posted 29/06/2023 at 19:12:30
Everton Football Club. Hire this man.


Paul Birmingham
46 Posted 29/06/2023 at 21:35:02
Excellent post, Paul, and if only the club would communicate their plans and aspirations as clearly as your post, life would be a little easier, we'd have an insight into the plans of Everton.

Seeing the emerging majestic new stadium this morning makes me wonder, “How” and “Why”, and I guess we will never know most of the facts.

But hope for Everton is eternal and for sure Everton is again on the precipice of disaster but the will of the Evertonians, as magnificent as they are, won't see the club break the shackles of failure and mediocrity as has been ground into the club for the last 30 odd years.

So the time for change, real decisive change is now.

I have no trust in the board but, based on the recent communication regards the stadium completion and opening schedule by the interim CEO, Colin Chong, that seemed genuine.

But the communications must be consistent and genuine henceforth. Time will show.

Everton could be on the cusp of a new beginning or what may be a mirage of great times but what could be a painful, lingering demise.

Faith and hope drives life every day but Everton takes its toll and tests the resolve of all Evertonians. Surely this opportunity to start fresh can't be missed and can provide genuine hope and deliverance – a word I've used many times on TW.

Praying and hoping Calvert-Lewin's treatment in Germany improves his fitness and at least 5 or 6 new players are brought into the squad.

So another excellent thread is evolving, and the billion-pound question: When will a new beginning really start for Everton Football Club?

I'll say it again, the new stadium is looking majestic and deserves a professional CEO, chairman, and board to take Everton on the journey from mediocrity to being genuine contenders in British and European Football.

This will take time and immense patience, but the time is now.


Paul Kossoff
47 Posted 30/06/2023 at 00:18:31
Anyone know how much Moshiri can charge Everton to rent the new stadium? I think that's what he has planned.
Sell the club, keep the stadium and rent it.

If he does that, any chance we can buy Goodison and tell him to shove his new ground where the sun don't shine?

Philip Bunting
48 Posted 30/06/2023 at 06:54:01
When one player Declan Rice is transferred at over £100mill plus wages, it’s hard to see in the short term how we can progress the football side, the transfer market looks broken to me in the UK.

Even entering into Championship level players now they want £20mill plus. To have any meaningful budget to invest in the first team would require hundreds of millions to make that short term improvement with no guarantee that it would work.

We need to be looking at South American leagues etc for value, out-of-contract players and academy as, to compete, you don't need billionaires but trillionaires!

Bob Parrington
49 Posted 30/06/2023 at 06:56:48
Paul - Well thought out and put together. Whilst reading, I was thinking exactly as Billy Bradshaw stated in his #1 post.
Tony Abrahams
50 Posted 30/06/2023 at 08:06:09
This is only what Bill Kenwright did in a roundabout way with regards the training ground, Paul K.

Everton owned their training ground but Chairman Bill sold it, deciding that it would be better “for himself” if the club paid extortionate fees instead.

“If” his Billionaire does the same regarding the new ground, then it's nothing that hasn't been done before with regards to saddling the club with a lot more debt for something they won't even own.

Everything is mere speculation but, until Kenwright and Moshiri leave, I don't think we will ever get what The Esk is asking for in his title.

Brian Wilkinson
51 Posted 30/06/2023 at 09:46:41
Brilliant post, Paul the Esk.

But as long as our Chairman remains, I cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Our Chairman must have some serious dirt on Moshiri and Usmanov, when the other three board members resigned and the 48-hour later news that never arrived, I just knew Bill would put it in a way of "I will offer to resign, leaving no board members, and no doubt Moshiri will ask me to stay on."

I have said it many many times, nothing surprises me any more with our Chairman, absolute disgrace that the guy is still chairman of our football club.

Paul [The Esk]
52 Posted 30/06/2023 at 12:51:01
Thanks again for all the supportive comments and the many opinions that add to the original piece. The club and the new investors have a copy!

As frustrating as this period is, especially with the urgency surrounding strengthening the squad, I'll stress as I have said in my podcasts that Kenwright's tenure as Chair is now very limited. A new Chair will be appointed when the MSP deal completes.

Tony Everan
53 Posted 30/06/2023 at 13:09:41
Paul, how close would you say MSP are to completing? Weeks, months?
Danny O’Neill
54 Posted 30/06/2023 at 13:19:14
Thanks Paul.

Meanwhile, I'm trying to get on the FAB, but to no avail.

Switzerland, Tranmere and Stoke it is before Fulham!

Keep up the good work.

Brian Wilkinson
55 Posted 30/06/2023 at 13:36:45
That's good news, Paul, in regards to a new chair being appointed when the MSP deal is complete.

I am still half-expecting a Life President or something that will keep Bill there, hope I am wrong.

Ian Pilkington
56 Posted 30/06/2023 at 15:02:05
Good news Paul, just a pity that Moshiri didn't simply appoint Colin Chong as interim Chairman as well as CEO.

I have never bought into the idea that Kenwright has enough dirt on Moshiri to ensure his retention as Chairman because he would surely incriminate himself by doing so.

In the unlikely but not impossible event of Moshiri making him Life President, we can gain some satisfaction in the knowledge that Kenwright can never ever attend another home match.

Dennis Stevens
57 Posted 30/06/2023 at 15:20:23
I'd rather Kenwright had stood down from the Board & the rest of the Board remained in the interim, tbh.
Jay Harris
58 Posted 30/06/2023 at 15:31:59
Excellent article, Paul, highlighting the cultural as well as the practical changes that need to happen.

I have always said that to be successful you have to create the conditions in which people can be effective.

With divisive interfering egotistic individuals like Moshiri and Kenwright, I think this is impossible – especially given they are running the show from Monaco and London respectively.

We need a champion who will walk through the corridors of Goodison and Finch Farm and light the places up with good positive news and direction.

I am usually a positive person, but I see the MSP involvement like throwing a pebble in the ocean and, instead of Moshiri welcoming the involvement like a breath of fresh air, he is already putting up the protective barriers in the form of him and Kenwright on the board.

If this board is still in place at the end of the transfer window, I fear it will be another year of depression.

My question to Moshiri is: If Bill is such an expert in negotiations, why have our transfers been such a disaster over the last few years and why leave him as chairman if that is all he is doing?

Paul Kossoff
59 Posted 30/06/2023 at 16:07:20
Tony 50.

What I'm worried about in the event us not owning the new stadium is what happened over 100 years ago.

The most famous of the disagreements concerns the level of increased rent Everton were asked to pay.

In 1889, Everton paid £100 to Houlding in rent which by the 1889–90 season had risen to £250. Everton had to pay for all works and stands.

The dispute escalated to a rent of £370 per year being demanded. In the complicated lead up to the split in the club, the rent dispute is too simplistic to be singled out as the prime cause.

What happens if whoever rents us the stadium holds us to ransom over-charges. Say a Mike Ashley takes us to the cleaners over rent then does a Coventry and kicks us out because he's got plans for turning a profit on the site.

Where do we go then? Build another stadium?

Clive Rogers
60 Posted 30/06/2023 at 16:15:55
Jay, I am in full agreement with your post. The interim board is a disaster waiting to happen.

I can't see the people from MSP who end up on the board having any football knowledge either. They are businessmen who are only interested in making money. They will have some input to the financial side but not the playing side. I think their buying in is a disaster with Moshiri retaining the largest share. It was a complete takeover the club needed.

Have MSP improved the playing performance of any of the other teams they have bought into? I doubt it, looking at their league positions.

Brian Wilkinson
61 Posted 30/06/2023 at 16:32:17
I have a question for Paul the Esk.

With the three other board members leaving, is there a possibility that Moshiri asked Bill to remain, so that Bill would deal with the October hearing instead of himself?

Or am I overthinking the reasoning and it's just a simple changeover, once the MSP deal had been finalised.

Jay Harris
62 Posted 30/06/2023 at 16:55:31

I would have imagined that the case for the defense is already in the hands of the lawyers who will deal with the matter.

I can't imagine Kenwright subjecting himself to any interrogation. At least I hope not.

Jay Harris
63 Posted 30/06/2023 at 16:59:18
Clive, the interesting thing for me is Brands was given a seat on the board. So do they not have enough faith in Thelwell who is the only one amongst them with any real football experience.

As soon as I saw Moshiri was joining the board and keeping Kenwright on, I thought to myself he is not gonna give MSP any control of the club.

Let's hope I'm wrong.

John Raftery
64 Posted 30/06/2023 at 18:41:40
Brian (61) I mentioned the issue of our representation at the 25 October hearing on another thread.

It does concern me that the club will have no one with first-hand knowledge of previous discussions with the Premier League giving evidence in front of the independent commission.

A defence along the lines of ‘nothing to do with us… it was all the fault of our predecessors' is unlikely to cut it.

Clive Rogers
65 Posted 30/06/2023 at 18:51:16
Jay, I'm not convinced by Thelwell anyway. He signed 8 players last summer and none of them were good enough.

McNeil improved when Dyche came in somewhat. I assume he brought Vinagre in as he knew him from Wolves. That went well!! He must have approved the Maupay signing. He'd better improve this summer or we'll be in the Championship.

I don't think MSP have any football knowledge, they are financial people.

Barry Hesketh
66 Posted 30/06/2023 at 18:56:16
I hope it's not too long before we can banish Kenwright, Relegation and Championship from the Evertonia lexicon as every post seems to include at least one of those words, regardless of the topic of the thread.

Danny O’Neill
67 Posted 30/06/2023 at 19:23:27
I know Barry, but the title is about a new Everton.

There can only be a new Everton with the removal of the obvious.

Meanwhile, think about Switzerland, Tranmere, Wigan, Stoke and Sporting.

Then Fulham and Villa away.

Bill Gall
68 Posted 30/06/2023 at 20:02:42
What's new? Same owner, same chairman, new board?

And now 5 weeks to go before the season starts, still waiting for new investment with no information of what influence they will make or be allowed to make. Very little signs of any comings or goings, only lazy journalists with rumours. Premier League is a very demanding league that does not wait around for clubs to make their minds up.

Momentum started when old board members left. No time to wait, to decide what to do… a plan should already be in place. Get it done before the window closes.

Clive Rogers
69 Posted 30/06/2023 at 21:29:45
There’s no new investment coming to the club from MSP. It goes straight into building the new ground.
John Raftery
70 Posted 30/06/2023 at 22:28:52
Clive (65),

Overall, I would count Tarkowski, Coady, Gana, Garner and McNeil as successes. We may well end up making a substantial profit on Onana, a player with clear potential but currently lacking maturity. Vinagre did not work out but that was a low-risk loan deal on relatively low wages. As for Maupay, we had £15M left to spend on a striker and it was case of Maupay or nobody.

In any window, any club is doing well if half of the signings work out. After our profligacy of earlier years, Thelwell finds himself operating in the bargain basement end of the market at a club selling and buying under acute financial and footballing pressure.

It is a difficult balancing act. Some of Thelwell's signings last summer were to address the here and now, Gueye and Tarkowski being the two obvious examples. Others like Garner and McNeil were with a view to improving the squad in the longer term.

Of course the recruitment of goal scorers is now the glaringly obvious area for improvement. Thelwell's performance in this window will rightly be judged on that aspect.

Phil Friedman
71 Posted 30/06/2023 at 22:40:57
Jay @63:

If MSP doesn't get a board seat, Moshiri gets no money from them. Bank on that.

Clive Rogers
72 Posted 30/06/2023 at 22:45:54
John, 70,

Tarkowski was a mixture of good and bad for me while Coady lost his place and the option to buy has not been taken up.

Gana's possession football was good but his tackling rate has gone down and he is not creative and will never score. Garner still has to improve for me to rate him Premier League standard.

John Chambers
73 Posted 30/06/2023 at 23:19:04
On a positive note we haven’t had to sell Onana or Pickford in a 30th June “fire sale” (unless something happens in the next 45 minutes). Not to say we will not sell before the window is over but at least we should be able to negotiate under better terms if needed.
Mike Gaynes
74 Posted 30/06/2023 at 23:59:28
Clive #72,

Did you know Tarkowski blocked 78 shots in Premier League play last season? And that nobody else in the Premier League blocked more than 42? And that he was second in the league in clearances?

And did you know that Gana was third in the league in tackles? Not to mention second in the league in interceptions?

Wow, some people sure are hard to satisfy.
(Garner not Premier League standard????)

Eric Myles
75 Posted 01/07/2023 at 00:55:32
"an overly expensive capital project"

I presume you mean the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock?

What makes you think it is overly expensive?

How much do you think it should cost?

Or what are you comparing the value to?

Jay Harris
76 Posted 01/07/2023 at 01:26:13
Phil #71,

I wasn't suggesting MSP won't get a seat on the board, in fact, popular opinion seems to be they will get two.

My inference was that Moshiri, in appointing himself, Billy Liar and 3 others to the board, would get the majority vote on any proposal and therefore controls the board.

Colin Glassar
77 Posted 01/07/2023 at 02:18:44
Please wake me up when something actually happens at Everton. This is getting like The Curse of Oak Island.
Tony Everan
78 Posted 01/07/2023 at 07:05:34
Colin 77,

Set your alarm clock for Friday 1 September, 3pm. That's when Chairman Bill plugs his cable into the switchboard to man the phones, and the magic starts to happen.

The world's greatest transfer negotiator is primed and ready for action.

Danny O’Neill
79 Posted 01/07/2023 at 07:11:45
I'd mostly agree with that assessment, John.

Tarkowski was a rock. I thought he forged a decent partnership with Coady early on, but the latter faded. Tarkowski made mistakes, but who wouldn't in a struggling team as the last line? Who doesn't in football? Often, he was having to do a lot on his own. His sense of danger and awareness is polar opposite to Michael Keane. I'd be interested to see Branthwaite line up alongside Tarkowski.

But word of warning. As well as what I've said, expect mistakes and don't crucify him. At 21 years old, he is very young for a centre-back. You won't see the best out of a centre-back until they are 28, dare I say 30 and beyond.

Gueye covers so much ground and although not spectacular, he makes so many crucial tackles and interceptions. Another one who, with the young, raw and still developing Onana next to him, had to do a lot on his own. Often too much.

Garner is comfortable on the ball and always looking for the forward pass. Another young player with potential.

Despite the initial criticism, McNeil blossomed and became a very important player for us. Very strong in the run in. Another young player.

There is enough there for us to build on. Let's see what happens after 30 June now that has passed.

Paul [The Esk]
80 Posted 01/07/2023 at 08:24:14
#75 Eric.

Moshiri has conceded privately at least that the stadium project has become "too expensive for a club of Everton's size".

Obviously we are committed and have to find the resources to complete but his comments relate to 3 points:

1. We haven't progressed as a football club, in fact regressed. Not having European football and finishing lower in the league than budgeted for has a huge financial impact.

2. Construction costs are significantly higher than originally anticipated.

3. The cost of financing has gone through the roof.

We are paying 12% on the Rights & Media Funding loan.
If we are fully utilising our £200M facility then that's £67k a day in interest charges alone!

Neil Carter
81 Posted 01/07/2023 at 08:25:52
Moshiri has no vision or plan beyond the real estate investment and an eye to sell at a profit.

The indications are change will come now probably with ownership structure but it will take time — certainly longer than the 6 weeks we have to assemble some sort of squad to survive next season.

Not convinced the moves made so far are no more than to just shut us up as fans and the death spiral of the last two seasons will continue. Immediate attention needed on the pitch and this is judgement time for Thelwell after the failure of the last transfer window.

Neil Carter
82 Posted 01/07/2023 at 08:36:40

Moshiri is an accountant who interferes in football matters.
You've just described problems of his own poor decision-making.

Tony Abrahams
83 Posted 01/07/2023 at 10:08:16
Paul @80,

I have had it on what I consider very good authority, that there is at least one other interested party who want to buy Everton Football Club, outright.

My information might not be correct but, when you give us an idea of what Everton could be losing every single day, it does make me wonder why Farhad Moshiri doesn't just want to cut his losses and get away, especially because with him being a friend of Usmanov, he's probably getting looked at a lot closer now?

Jay H, I also get the feeling that something's wrong, or something is not quite right, so hopefully the people with a lot more faith end up being correct.

Eddie Dunn
84 Posted 01/07/2023 at 10:31:09
So, at the end of the day, when the stadium is complete, I wonder just how much of it the club will actually "own" and how much we will be dogged by the huge repayments in future years?

To think that we will also need to finance player purchases and wages, it makes me wonder how we can increase our revenue enough to make it possible?

Mark Taylor
85 Posted 01/07/2023 at 10:48:31
Since I've been rather negative about our prospects, I'll give a potentially positive outcome, but it will take a few years.

Forget P&S. As I think Paul is suggesting, our immediate problem is cash. We don't have any money to invest in players even if we could within P&S, it all has to go to the stadium, including the much higher financing costs we face.

But give it, say, 3 years and we might be a club with a new stadium (assuming we're not renting it from a separate entity) and a zero or even a positive on the P&S calculation. Imagine what that might make us worth to an eager sports washer. We just have to stay in the Premier League with no resources (hello, Mr Dyche).

Tom Bowers
86 Posted 01/07/2023 at 11:38:16
None of us really have the answers despite many good posts.

Somewhere among them may lie some of the answers but in a nutshell it all comes down to money.

Without big investment from the Middle East or the USA, it would appear little is going to change at Goodison.

They must have spent big money when bringing in the likes of Koeman and Ancellotti and sadly it was just wasted.

Without the quality on the field, no manager, no matter how big a name, can hope to succeed.

Yes, sometimes miracles can happen (Leicester) but look at them now.

Dyche has the experience with an unfashionable club and laid the foundation for their jump back into the Premier League but I have my doubts that Kompany will be able to keep them there.

I feel that Dyche can do the job to make Everton more competitive but he will need support from the top and it will take time.

Paul [The Esk]
87 Posted 01/07/2023 at 13:10:56
Tony #83, interesting thanks.

Mark #85 yes it's much more a cashflow situation assuming we've not got some arrangement with the Premier League currently.

Mike Doyle
88 Posted 01/07/2023 at 13:22:15
Paul #87,

On last week's podcast, you seemed pretty confident that we'd have to make a fairly large sale before yesterday.

Do you think things might be (slightly) better than hoped – or that the sale will still be made with the paperwork backdated to 30 June?

Derek Wadeson
89 Posted 01/07/2023 at 14:08:18
I understand why so many want rid of Bill Kenwright. My own personal feeling is that he needs to still be in place for the P & S meeting in late October. He has to face and answer all the charges as the world's biggest Evertonian.

Personally I think he should've retired a few years ago if only for his own health and sanity.

Paul [The Esk]
90 Posted 01/07/2023 at 14:13:47
#88 Mike, I was pleasantly surprised we didn't have a player sold before yesterday for cash flow reasons and also to dress up the accounts when presented next year.

#89 Derek, given the imprecise manner in which BK speaks I'd have thought we wouldn't want him anywhere near the commission!

Phil (Kelsall) Roberts
91 Posted 01/07/2023 at 15:49:36

£200M x 12% = £1,666,666.67 / 365 = £45662 per day.

Or is there something else?

Mind you £45k per day is still a lot!

Geoff Trenner
92 Posted 01/07/2023 at 16:47:25
Phil@ 91.

I think you need a new calculator.

£200 million x 12% = £24 million per annum = £65.7k per day.

Dennis Stevens
93 Posted 01/07/2023 at 16:59:21
Yeah, but next year's a leap year, Geoff.
Clive Rogers
94 Posted 01/07/2023 at 17:08:45
Mike, 74,

I'm not a great believer in stats, trust my eyes more. The stat I do believe is 4th from bottom.

That tells us how good the team was.

Paul Kossoff
95 Posted 01/07/2023 at 00:05:47

I watched Branthwaite for the Under-21s team against Germany. He looked very ordinary to me. Never tried anything skilful.

Once he tried to take a man on and lost possession. Every time he received a pass in his own half, his time on the ball was round two seconds before giving the ball a sideways tap to the nearest team mate.

Once he made a block on a shot at goal; apart from that, nothing. He looked very average against a poor Germany side. I am sure he will improve but he is nowhere near a young Stones. I would worry him being in the first team regularly.

Mike Gaynes
96 Posted 02/07/2023 at 05:36:33
Clive #94,

Yes it does, but it doesn't necessarily tell you how good some of the individual players were.

Alan J Thompson
97 Posted 02/07/2023 at 05:59:53
Mike (#96);

Those stats don't tell you how close he was to the player when making blocks and too often he seems to have backed off nearer to the goal line than actually marking somebody, especially when it seems he should have been marking the player whose effort he has blocked.

This is not to say that he is a bad player but I prefer my main central defender to be challenging for the ball in our penalty area and most goalkeepers prefer defenders don't back on to them.

Danny O’Neill
98 Posted 02/07/2023 at 09:14:18
We've not seen enough of Branthwaite to date. Well, I certainly haven't – other than him scoring a goal right in front of my eyes at Stamford Bridge.

I agree with the sentiment, we need to be careful with the expectation. At 21, very young for a centre-back and still a lot of development to do. I wouldn't compare him to John Stones. He was a talented football, which is why Pep now uses him in a defensive midfield role. A classic sweeper. No two players are the same, although I did draw comparisons between John Stones and Alan Hansen at the time.

We need to be patient with the other young players. McNeil was almost "Life of Brian" crucified within weeks of arriving only to go on to be one of our most important players.

Paul, your always detailed analysis on cashflow is quite stark and realistic. Worrying. Someone, maybe more are going to move on and allow room for manoeuvre for the manager to bring in who he wants? It would appear the only way we can do trade.

We do need to build on the defence. I think we are covered at full-back (providing Patterson stops being like a Bryan Robson Airfix model and breaking) and Seamus will Highlander-like play forever.

But we have lost Mina and Coady. It looks like we are shipping Holgate out on loan. Keane continuously worries me and won't improve. Branthwaite is young and developing.

It kind of leaves Tarkowski as last man standing. The forlorn hope.

Eventful season ahead. I can't wait.

Jerome Shields
99 Posted 02/07/2023 at 09:41:51
Heading to July keeping the same Chairman, getting a loan that took months to process, and replacing a few directors in-house is very inadequate given Everton's current situation.

I did expect players to be sold by now and can only put it down to being a buyer's market as far as Everton is concerned. We have had the usual PR leaks. but no-one appears to have taken the bait. I think the possible loan of the Dutch Striker has some truth, since Everton tend to hope for second chances in the transfer market window.

On the figures that Paul has provided, it is inevitable that something will give. Insubstainable cost of borrowing and losses do end things. Though it will seem to take forever to manifest.

Everton, like all businesses in such a situation, are always up for sale. I would not put it past Kenwright being in the mix. As for the independent commission, given that most Premier League clubs have issues, I don't think that what is written on the tin will happen. It has already been pushed out of sight

I still think that Everton are going to be very dependent on Dyche getting performances out of a threadbare squad, which will be worse than last season. The only hope is that he has a season, not part of a season, to get through.

Eric Myles
100 Posted 03/07/2023 at 14:13:53
Paul #80.

1. Agreed, if we had achieved better league placings there would have been more money available.

2. On a fixed price contract the contractor takes the risk of construction cost price rises unless there is an inflationary clause in the Contract or the client makes changes.

3. You would have thought with Moshiri's background that he could get better deals than Chairman Bill's Wonga loan?

Tom Hughes
101 Posted 03/07/2023 at 15:17:29
I doubt that any construction company on the planet could absorb a 50% cost hike on this size of project.

They will have built in flexibilities in the contract for inflationary factors. Each phase costed on a rolling material acquisition timeline.

Barry Hesketh
102 Posted 03/07/2023 at 15:47:59
It seems that any agreement with MSP and the possible appointment of new board members will not be completed in time for the start of the upcoming season, that's according to Joe Thomas's piece on the Echo website.

There's no quotes from anyone directly involved in the process and most of the 'news' is littered with "the Echo understands" etc. I would imagine that Bill and Co will see the club through this summer transfer window and then we may get news of some changes… or will we?

David West
104 Posted 03/07/2023 at 18:30:14
Paul's article reads how the club's "review" should have sounded if it was done by an independent voice of reason.

The paragraph that Moshiri needs to read is:

"We need reformers, we need visionaries, we need credible, experienced, worldly business people who not only can recover this business but set it on a new path, a path to success"

This is the key to moving the club forward. I've said many times a top class Ceo may not be cheap, but it should be seen as just as important as a good player and we have seen what we've wasted on poor players.

The money we've had and wasted has left us in a position that we've not faced before it's a critical time for us. Some people under-estimate our predicament Paul spells it out...

Yes, we've had relegation battles but this is bigger if we don't get these appointments right it's going to affect us for years we will struggle to ever compete as we will be cleaning up Moshiri's mess forever.

Derek Taylor
105 Posted 03/07/2023 at 20:37:06
For sometime now, I have been dubbing Everton as the new Aston Villa. I was wrong – I should have said 'the new Burnley'!

We now have their old manager and a clique of his old players with more to arrive soon.

Always remembering that the likes of Tommy Lawton, Martin Dobson and Trevor Stevens honed their skills at Turf Moor, their recent brood hardly get the pulse racing – even if they are back in the top league!

What is becoming clear is that losing access to his master's riches has reduced Moshiri to the begging bowl and only the sale of the likes of Pickford and Onana will provide the funds to drag the Blues out of the knacker's yard.

Burnley, you have a new rival for 17th spot!

Eric Myles
106 Posted 04/07/2023 at 03:51:22
Tom #101, but as you know, the construction cost has not increased 50%.

And remember, as a Design and Build contract, a good part of the fixed price is the engineering and procurement of specialist items, such items being long-lead and ordered very early on in the engineering phase.

It would be very unusual for your 'flexibilities' to be billed to a client in the way you describe but it would be a contractor's internal procurement practice.

Tom Hughes
107 Posted 04/07/2023 at 18:59:45

It was Moshiri who said that the costs have increased by 50%.

Large complex projects are often split into phases to control those tight margins.

Eric Myles
108 Posted 05/07/2023 at 04:07:48
Tom #107, it's a stadium not a large complex project.

I don't beleive costs have increased 50% on a fixed price contract. They will only increase if the client makes changes.

When did Moshiri say that?

So he's expecting the stadium to cost £1 Billion in total???

Dale Rose
109 Posted 05/07/2023 at 08:56:00
I don't think anyone can predict what will happen to this club. I also don't think anyone can come up with a solution to improve things that will work.

A few carefully buys in this window, may get us a mid-table finish. I can't see us being third time lucky in the relegation stakes again.

Tom Hughes
110 Posted 05/07/2023 at 10:27:33
He told the Shareholder's Association last year that the costs had risen to £750m from the original £500m. No idea if he was fibbing or not.

A stadium is a fairly complex project especially one on an infilled dock with the various planning/heritage constraints.

Eric Myles
111 Posted 06/07/2023 at 13:23:53
Tom #110, the £750 (790?) million is Moshiri's total development cost of the project. The stadium construction* cost is the fixed price Lump Sum with Laing O'Rourke.

* not pure construction as it's design and build so probably 20 to 25% of that is engineering.

Filling a hole with sand (dock infill) is not really complex. True, the preservation of the minor existing heritage components may be specialist, but building a stadium is surely not that difficult.

Tom Hughes
112 Posted 06/07/2023 at 19:20:10

The project cost is essentially the stadium cost.

Yes, that includes the dock fill and preservation elements as they were all essentials not separate leveraged enablers nor ancillary developments. So they're all part of the bill to be funded by the owner/club.

According to him, that bill has risen from £500M to £760M.

Eric Myles
113 Posted 07/07/2023 at 06:10:57
Tom the project cost includes the planning applications and Dan Meis's costs and the PMC team costs (Cheong and his team)

According to LOR the stadium contract is £500 million and that's a fixed price. I can't see that having increased by 50%. It would only change if Moshiri added extras or changed specs.

Derek Thomas
114 Posted 07/07/2023 at 07:46:31
Tom @ 110; not so much fibbing as trying talk up his eventual sale price to next fool, as per the 'greater fool' theory.

That said; a Premier League club with (IMO) great potential and a brand new ground, might be seen in some circles as a bit of a bargai: 100k(?) shares @ £5000(?) + £750M = £1.25Billion.

What I think we don't need is the club and the new stadium as separate entities, but that mght be out of our hands.

I get the feeling though, as soon as Moshiri gets his hands on a figure he can live with, Club and Ground together or separate, he'll be off and it's devil take the hindmost.

Tony Abrahams
115 Posted 07/07/2023 at 08:01:33
I think you have called it 100% correct with that very last sentence, Derek, and once the ground is complete, then it wouldn't surprise me if real serious moneymen looked to get involved at Everton.

This is the only reason I can see why Moshiri is holding on even if it means that he's got to have Kenwright's fingernails clinging to the window ledges. I hope I'm wrong.

Tom Hughes
116 Posted 07/07/2023 at 09:17:57

Yes it includes planning, architect fees and project management, but they are quite small proportions compared to construction costs. The point I was making is that this is not part of a much bigger scheme. There is is no retail/commercial/residential enabling element to increase the overall project costs. This is just the stadium with the heritage/preservation element.

LOR do not control material costs and much of material acquisition was contracted out, operating more on a manufacturing type just-in-time basis. They would never have been able to take the hit for what has been a very inflated market, margins are far too tight in construction.

Tom Hughes
117 Posted 07/07/2023 at 09:50:35

I said pretty much said the same at the time. Owners have often hyped stadium values by conflating whole project and stadium construction costs. They did it with Destination Kirkby, and Spurs have done it since. Of course, it is more difficult to do when there is only the stadium to show for it. However, material costs and inflation generally have rocketed since the start of this project, so I would be surprised if there wasn't some increase. That said, I always thought the original costs were hyped too (compared to similar stadium projects elsewhere) so who knows what the actual costs are at this point? I assume someone is keeping tabs.

As regards increased club value when completed... that is the hope, though quite speculative. Not sure that £1.25bn correlates with having to potentially sell one quarter of the club for £150m just to get to completion but maybe that's the type of step-change a completed project can make. It has to be!

Eric Myles
118 Posted 07/07/2023 at 13:40:49
Tom #116, I disagree, PMC and Engineering / Architects fees make up around 20 to 25% of a total project cost.

So for LOR's £500 million Design and Build contract maybe £50 million is in-house design fees. We know £100 million was enabling works so that leaves £350 million "construction" cost. And remember that's including construction plant and procurement costs and internal project management costs.

So the actual Construction cost of materials and labour is even less. So increases in materials cost is not 50% of £500 million. Back in my day it was a 60/40 split materials to labour for construction but I've been out of that part of the game for a while now.

In your last para "much of material acquisition was contracted out" do you mean by LOR or by EFC?

If by LOR it's part of their fixed price contract. If by EFC and material supply is not part of LOR's contract then that's a completely different ball game.

In your reply to Derek you say "Owners have often hyped stadium values by conflating whole project and stadium construction costs." And that is the basis of my thinking that £750 million is whole project costs and £500 million is stadium costs.

Eric Myles
119 Posted 08/07/2023 at 02:37:37
That should be 60/40 labour / materials.
Tom Hughes
120 Posted 08/07/2023 at 13:08:49

I'm also a few years out of construction/structural engineering, but I don't remember architectural design/engineering/PM accounting for 20-25% of major project costs (anything over £20m). and this generally only decreased in percentage terms with size of the project. So I'd be surprised if they're higher than 10% for this.

Essentially, the stadium is the entire project there are no ancillary developments that are being paid for by others that can be added on. No retail, residential or commercial so what would account for the other £250m (if that's genuine)? Material, labour and logistical costs have risen since the start. Material inflation peaked at 26% in 2021 and almost 15% last year. No construction company would be expected to absorb that which is why fixed contracts usually exclude or factor-in inflation.

Eric Myles
121 Posted 09/07/2023 at 12:36:30
Tom, I've mostly worked in petrochem, O&G and power plants for EPC contractors or the PMC team so am basing my numbers on that.

Maybe civil / structural engineeeing fees are lower but when I was in that part of the game it was as a subbie and main contractor so didn't get involved in the engineering side. Costs did go up though 'cos of claims for poor engineering.

The other project costs besides the stadium are the land acquisition, engineering fees for concept design, statutory fees, PMC fees, owners testing costs, financing fees (which at 12% won't be insignificant). These add up. PMC fees are usually on a body shop basis and are loaded, and if the contractor has to do overtime to maintain the schedule!!

As we don't see the contract, which I assume is FIDIC Yellow Book we won't know if there's inflation clauses in it. It's not unheard of, in FIDIC Red Book for example, but not usually in a turnkey project. The contractor takes the risk which is why the £500 million seems such a high price in the first place.

We'll have to wait and see but I don't think Moshiri is low-balling his investment by only stating stadium cost and not whole project cost.

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