Everton host Aston Villa at the Hill Dickinson Stadium this Saturday in their first match after the early-season international break. It’s a fixture that’s proven difficult for the Toffees over recent seasons.

​Since Aston Villa’s return to the Premier League in 2019 after three seasons in the Championship, Everton have yet to beat them in league play, losing on nine occasions and drawing on three.

​However, things could be different this time around. The visitors currently sit in 19th place in the Premier League after a draw with Newcastle and losses to Brentford and Crystal Palace. They’re the only side yet to score a goal in the competition this season. “The mood [has] never been this low under Emery,” the Athletic wrote after their last match.

So what should Everton expect from Aston Villa on Saturday?

In Defence:

​Last season, Aston Villa were a middle-of-the-pack defensive side, ranking 10th in both goals and expected goals conceded per match. So far this year, those numbers have dropped a bit, as they’ve conceded the fifth-highest xG and the 8th highest goals per match.

​The personnel haven’t changed; they’re still rotating Tyrone Mings, Ezri Konsa, and Pau Torres as their two central defenders, and Lucas Digne, Ian Maatsen, and Matty Cash at full-back. But they have signed Victor Lindelof on a free transfer.

​For a while, it looked like goalkeeper Emi Martinez was on his way out, but that move fell apart on deadline day, and he’s now being reintegrated into the squad. Even so, replacement Marco Bizot had two decent games when called upon.

​They play a high line, and look most vulnerable to quick through balls in behind on the counter. Newcastle did well against them on the opening day, sending Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga through on goal on a couple of occasions. Brentford also got their winner this way, with Dango Outtara breaking in behind early.

​Villa’s full-backs are solid 1v1 defenders; all three ranked in the top five for tackles in the Villa side last season and have continued to do so this season. But they’re all better known for their attacking prowess, so Everton’s wingers will provide a tough test.

​The interesting question for David Moyes will be who to play up front. Beto had a good game against Wolverhampton last time out and will expect to start.

​However, against Villa, it’ll be key that the striker can both hold up play and accurately find his supporting midfielders to allow for Everton to move quickly from defence to attack.

​Jean-Philippe Mateta did it brilliantly in Crystal Palace’s win at Villa Park, and it’s an area of Beto’s game that needs work. Thierno Barry, on the other hand, did a great job of it against Brighton, who presented a similar threat.

Going Forward:

​As the old saying goes, attack is the best form of defence, and that’s where Aston Villa have struggled so far this year.

​They’re yet to score a goal and rank 19th in xG with 2.51.

​At the same time, Villa rank highly for possession, touches in the box, and passes into the final third. Despite getting into good positions, they have not converted these opportunities.

​Unai Emery’s biggest problem has been a lack of width. Ollie Watkins was and remains the most threatening player at the club, but unlike last year, his supporting cast is limited.

​Two of their top five scorers from last campaign aren’t at the club this season: Jhon Duran and Marcus Rashford. Additionally, the two players with the highest expected assists per 90 last year are also gone, Rashford and Leon Bailey.

​They’re playing a 4-2-3-1 formation, but at times with five players in midfield who are more suited to central areas.

​Newcastle easily negated their threat by crowding out the central areas of the pitch where Watkins and Morgan Rogers wanted to play the ball.

​At times, they can still threaten with nice play in tight areas, but it’s much less likely without attacking threats out wide for them to spread the ball to.

​They’ve tried to solve this by bringing in Harvey Elliott, Jadon Sancho, and Evann Guessend.

​Guessend joins from the French side Nice, where he led the squad with 20 combined goals and assists last season. He was deployed on the left wing against Palace, and did a good job of staying wide, but couldn’t really make an impact, as again he’s more suited to playing centrally.

​Harvey Elliott is still in search of his first majorly productive Premier League season, having been a role player in the Liverpool squad for several years now. His best season was in 2023/24 when he finished with three goals and six assists.

​Though he can play on the right wing, it’s the same issue with him that it has been for their other players; they need width, and he’s more suited to an inverted role.

​Jadon Sancho is the most exciting of their new additions. While he wasn’t a week-in, week-out starter for Chelsea last campaign, he finished with three goals and four assists in the Premier League, and ranked fourth in the squad for expected assists per 90.

​Similar to what we’ve seen from Jack Grealish at Everton, Aston Villa supporters will be hoping he’ll get the freedom to create that he had earlier in his career. Still only 25 years old, he’s another one who’ll be hoping to impress Thomas Tuchel ahead of the World Cup.

​Whether he’ll start this first match after a minimal pre-season is hard to say.

​Regardless, the tactics for Everton will likely mimic what brought Crystal Palace success against them in their 3-0 win.

​Keep the shape, allow Villa possession, and block half-space passes. Be patient and wait for counter opportunities.

​Crystal Palace didn’t actually get the ball into the Aston Villa half until the 15th minute of play, but when they did, their creative players were ruthless. Everton’s forward line possesses that same ability, but they’ll need to keep their shape at the back.

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