Uefa push back European Championships by a year

What needs to happen, once the ban is ended, is to finish this season everywhere across Europe's leagues. Doesn't matter when the restart is. Finish this season, so a start point is established for whatever the next season will look like.

Next season can be whatever the leagues come up with. What we don't want is for what's already occurred simply deleted. That's silly.

It' not who wins the leagues that is important. It's the 3 currently at the bottom of each level and the at least 3 teams in the leagues below that must have a fair go at every game to determine who goes up and who goes down. That's all important beyond other considerations.

Doesn't matter when the games restart or end, get the season completed. Next season is a blank slate. The leagues can set up whatever way gets everyone back on the normal schedule ASAP.

Myself, I say cancel next season's domestic cups across Europe to make maximum room for the league season.

At present governments have imposed restrictions with no exit strategy for the return to normal life. The Chief Scientist has said this afternoon he would be surprised if there isn't a rise in cases once restrictions are lifted. So completing the current season should be the first priority because there is a real risk that any attempt at a return to normality will be interrupted in a second wave of the virus.

None of the scientists seem confident we will see a vaccine available within twelve months. Indeed it would be extraordinary if there was one within twelve months. So in the circumstances we can be far from certain a 20/21 season could be completed in anything like the usual timeframe.

My worry concerns Carlo hope he is looking after him self..

I have been laid off work with next to no chance of finding a job... meanwhile the super star players with still earn more in a week than I did over the last 3 years...

Will this effect the new stadium being built ??

It appears to me that the authorities are showing more concern to the financial issues, rather than the welfare of the players and fans, who are the lifeblood of the game. I am on record saying that bad performances/results would not stop me from attending Everton games, and that the introduction of VAR might just tip the balance. I now have to add that if a fair outcome is not achieved in the final decision, that may be the 'last straw.

Of course being a member of the 'Endangered Species' being almost 82 with underlying health issues, the decision may be taken out of my hands. Best wishes John.

Having mulled over all the options, the most obvious and best one is to finish this season, whenever that may be safe to do so for all involved. It's the 2020-21 season that should be cancelled, making it an anomaly and a possible trick question in a pub quiz 50 years from now.

The start time for the next campaign, whenever it happens, could be a Winter to Winter affair, aligning it with the dreaded 2022 Qatar Winter World Cup. Who knows?

But, far more sensible to cancel something that hasn't happened yet rather than void something that's nearly finished.

While this goes on, footballers will still earn serious money that we can only dream of while many hundreds of thousands of ordinary folk are losing their jobs. We have to look after one another in our ordinary world in these extraordinary times. I dare say that many Evertonians couldn't give a shite if the stadium is completed. Their priority is keeping a roof over their heads and keeping well.

As one of those in the danger category, I'm more concerned by not being able to see my kids and grandchildren. Talking on Skype or whatever doesn't come near to giving them the hugs that I usually give them.

So forgive me for my self-indulgence but I think my sentiments reflect the vast majority of my fellow Evertonians. Keep safe and well, folks, and hopefully having got through this ordeal we can discuss and argue over which millionaire footballers we want to slag off.

I have just read on the BBC Sports section that, "Championship clubs are unanimously behind trying to complete the season, despite the Coronavirus outbreak". As you rightly suggest, there is every chance that the present situation will continue well into the summer, in which case the other Leagues, including the Premier League, should do the decent thing and follow suit, or write the current season off.

I will reiterate the statement I made in my post and that was, "It appears to me that the authorities are showing more concern to the financial issues, rather than the welfare of the players and the fans, who are the lifeblood of the game."

Football is a sport, which has got out of control with money. While this virus wrecks families and footballers' families, not one player will want to enter a field of play. Liverpool and Leeds can play a mini-league of 2, at least 1 will get a runners-up trophy.

Take care, all, and look after your families and as many as you can.

apologies if my post offended you, it was never intended to offend anyone. I too am in the 'at risk' section, and I too worry for my children and grandchildren. However, I find discussing the events of the 'Football World' to be a distraction from the horrors that confront us.

My 'Young Lady' and I have entered the 'World of Isolation' and face the possibility of three months without the hugs and kisses of our grandchildren. I completely share your sentiments, and once again I offer my apologies, but hope that you can accept that no offence was intended.

Effectively, we've all got to catch this virus (or a very high percentage of the population anyway) to acquire the necessary immunity so some transmission is necessary. It's just a balance between keeping the numbers of those who are at real risk within the capacity of the facilities for their treatment whilst the ~98% (at current virulence) deal with it with a few paracetamol and bed rest.

I'm sure they could easily monitor the players for symptoms and test if necessary so they will know for sure when someone has to be excused from the squad.

I really feel for you John. All we can do on here is to try and keep your spirits up, you are well-liked on here, a pure decent gentleman, as are other posters on here.

Keep safe John, and fellow ToffeeWeb people.

We can get through this together.

Unfortunately, at the moment, we are still guessing because it is a new virus. One thing a lot of people haven't really caught up on is that there is no natural immunity and therefore everyone is pretty much expected to catch it at some stage until there is enough herd immunity for it to become simply a bad memory for most of us.

How long do we want that to take? How long will our society survive enforced isolation? The best outcome would be for the disease to spread but at a slow enough pace that our intensive care facilities only have to deal with a steady slow flow of those whose lives are threatened.

It is a balance and I doubt anyone would be encouraged to deliberately get infected, but an effective vaccine may never be developed and there is the risk that the virus could mutate again sometime in the future and become more virulent and pose a greater threat to those who had not yet already acquired the necessary immunity. A complete lockdown for a couple of months until the danger has passed may just not be a feasible reality.

You're quite right, 20,000 fatalities is currently regarded as a 'good' outcome, if you can believe it.

The government has ratcheted everything up belatedly, because the modelling work developed by Imperial College showed their previous approach, last week, would result in 260,000 deaths.

But it is one model, and is not factual but theoretical. In the meantime, the policy is only to test those infected and nobody else, not even NHS workers on the frontline, who are both vulnerable and spreading the virus to vulnerable people even as we speak. They are having to arrange individual tests privately.

This despite the WHO advice being Test, Test, Test!

My wife and I are both 72, and are being told we will need to self isolate ‘in a few days'. Is the model that time specific? Why not now?

I feel we are all being treated as guinea pigs in a huge experiment which is a massive gamble in people's lives and livelihoods.

I have no medical, or financial knowledge, I do however have a little bit of football experience, and enjoy sharing opinions with others, I have never offended anyone intentionally, and will always be quick to apologise if offence is taken. I usually sign off by saying Best wishes, but in the circumstances I'll follow your excellent example and say, "Keep safe Brian, and fellow ToffeeWeb people" Best wishes John,

Ok, clubs might well be reporting back for training in the next week or two, let's hope they do and we can get back to doing what we all love best, watching football. It will only need one player though, to show any signs of symptoms of the virus and the whole club will shut down again. Experts saying we've not even reached the peak of this virus so it will take weeks and weeks to get back playing.

In my opinion, it would be a risk playing games behind closed doors. Just because there's no crowd, doesn't mean no virus. How many people would there be in a stadium anyway, I bet at least a couple of thousand.

This thread will rumble on and on until football resumes, but for me end the season now, so we can start next season early enough, be it in August or September. I read somewhere above that we should try and finish this season and cancel next season. What is the point of that, when the virus will slowly be dying out? Why lose a whole season for the sake of a few weeks?

I was just going to post something very similar to what you've just said. I totally agree that this season is over, finished. Null and void.

The emphasis should now be on what happens next season and we won't know this until the pandemic pans out.

Any talk about carrying this season over, or playing behind closed doors, is a total nonsense.

In that context, ask yourselves, how important is football? To watch and to play?Or how important are pubs? Or restaurants/cafes? Or schools? Or social mixing/parties? Or family get together? Or holidays? Or cinemas? Or sport in general? Friends? Places of worship?

The thing is I guess that these are all things that can make life worth living. Depending on the individual, I suppose that those things might be given different priorities. But we are having to give them all up, possibly for a very long time.

So, Although whether or not the season ends soon, or is played out whenever, or whether Liverpool deserve the title or not is of little consequence in the great scheme of things,football is an important part of our lives, as are many of the other things above.

Without them life loses much of its flavour, and football is a big part of that.

I miss football, and Everton, and Goodison, but I don't miss the Premier League, or Sky and all its attendant bullshit. Or fucking VAR!

One point I have not seen discussed much is the next season, season tickets on sale and we have ( at this time) until April 2 to renew, my thoughts are even if it goes ahead to time unless a vaccine is available then the best guess is the virus will like seasonal flu hit next winter right in the middle of the next season with the older population with no immunity to it?

Thinking about this I have decided not to renew my season ticket as by the time I would have to do it there is no way of knowing what will happen next season.

Anyway all keep safe and would be interested in your thoughts.

At the early stages, everyone could have gone into lock down for 6 months. But when we all came out again, skipping into the summer sun, the virus would still be there.

The restriction on mass gathering, including football matches, is predominantly to help health care systems prepare and cope with the inevitable influx of cases.

Only by the world wide administration of a effective vaccine or by people gaining immunity by being infected, will the virus be controlled. Even then, it is likely that some sort of seasonal infection rate will occur within all populations.

The spreading of bad science doesn't help anyone who is vulnerable.

I've seen on other threads in the past, where comments have been aired on the peculiar place names in Britain, and what individuals in the United States are planning to have for dinner, both subjects attracting immense interest, and in my opinion as far removed from football as you can get.

I think that in the present circumstances, this non football topic is acceptable due to the catastrophic possibilities. I suppose in hindsight 'which is a 'wonderful thing' the Editor/Moderator may have given it a thread of its own.

The impact of Covid-19 is unprecedented in the history of the world. Normal life has been totally suspended.

As footy fans we need our diet of live action to give purpose to our lives and our obsessions. But we are largely at the mercy of the unknown.

Yes, I 'wish' normal order could be restored and as a result the current season could be completed and next season start on time.

The possibility of that actually coming to pass looks increasingly unlikely with each passing day, with absolute no guarantees that 'normal service will be resumed' after April 4th.

The plight of this year's Olympics highlight the difference between wishful thinking and what is possible.

It was astonishing (for me) to hear the organizers of the Tokyo Olympics claim yesterday that they still intend to deliver a full Olympics, in front of full stadiums, from the end of July in August.

Link

It comes as no surprise to me that some IOC officials and athletes have criticized the declaration, the latter left bewildered as to just how they are meant to prepare for the Olympics when they are currently denied access to training facilities or competition. Only 57% of athletes to date have qualified to compete. How are the remaining 43% expected to do so?

Link

That strikes me as a total suspension of the reality of the situation.

Two things here:

1) we currently have no way of knowing for how long or how extensively Covid-19 will continue to impact on and curtail normal daily routines. Now. Next week. Next month. 2-3-4-5-6 months from now.

2) as the concerned Olympian athletes mention in the linked report, how are they meant to prepare and be in peak condition for the Games when training facilities and competition are closed to them?

It makes a mockery of the International Olympic Committee's declaration yesterday that: "This is an exceptional situation which requires exceptional solutions. The IOC is committed to finding a solution with the least negative impact for the athletes, while protecting the integrity of the competition and the athletes' health."

Applying that as Rob does @32 to the PL, as he rightly says, you can't expect players to start playing again 'at the drop of a hat' after (who knows how long?) a delay.

Now maybe a glimmer of hope is emerging. The first cases of Covid-19 can be traced back to December. After initially ignoring the spread of the virus, the Chinese authorities took Draconian measures to arrest its spread, particular at source in Wuhan.

In the last two days in the whole of China there were just 4 and 1 new cases reported (that are known).

South Korea has been the shining model in mobilising and dealing with the virus with little impact on daily life by testing-testing-testing, setting up mobile testing stations for the convenience of its citizens.

Of countries with more than 100 cases and reported deaths, China is way out in front with 80,000+ cases and more than 3,000 deaths, returning a death rate of 3.8%. See graphs and tables in this article:

Link

This 3.8% death rate is equalled by Italy (nearly 4,000 cases, 148 deaths).

Iran's death rate is 2.6% (4,747 cases, 124 deaths).

The shining example is South Korea. Second only to China for the number of cases (6,593) they have had only 42 deaths, for a death rate of just 0.6%.

How so? Check the graph #8 in this article:

Link

South Korea is way, WAY ahead of the rest of the world in the number of people tested (per million) of the population - 3,692.

But US citizens (and to a lesser extent, the UK) may want to look away now.

Way, WAY out in front on deaths rates is the US. 239 cases. 14 deaths. A whopping 5.9% death rate, 2.1% higher than China and Italy where both governments placed their countries in lock down.

Those numbers are further compounded by the miserly numbers tested per million in the US. They sit at the bottom of that table. Just 23 people per million tested in the US. The worst hit countries - China (2,820 pm tested) and Italy (826 pm) are doing so much better.

So much for the POTUS saying 'we have tests for everybody'.

Prepare yourselves, Seppos! Things could very quickly get very, VERY bad in your backyard.

The desired resumption and completion of the English football leagues is infintisimally insignificant by comparison.

Hello from sunny (but scary) Italy. Long-time reader (since back when this was a. org) but first-time poster - at least, I think so. I may have posted years ago, but I can't remember :)

Personally, I feel this season needs to be scrapped. I just don't see how it will be safe to play until next year. Perhaps there will be the possibility of carrying on where we left off. But that raises a pile of questions that need answering, such as player's contracts.

Jay @40, While I agree with the sentiment of your post, I think your figures may be a little out of date. As of last night, Italy has 26,000 active cases, and a death toll of over 2,500, 1,500 of these have been since we've been on lockdown. You might find this page interesting: Coronavirus Status It's also very, very scary.

The UK hasn't even started isolation as yet, so you're at least 10 days or so behind us. As others have mentioned, there is no exit plan from all this. Isolation will certainly slow down or maybe even stop this virus, but what then? As soon as restrictions are lifted, we'll be off on the merry-go-round all over again :(

Oh well, time to load up Championship Manager and fill the empty days :) Take care and stay safe all.

With people potentially dying on this scale and under such misery and under such strain, do I personally care about finishing the season?

I have a mother in her late 70's who's a fought cancer twice and had a large part of one lung removed, she's a prime candidate for this horrible thing that's fallen on us, were doing all her shopping and she's not going out.

There's probably one or two on here with these worries also.

In typing my own post I meant to add the caveat to my data links on Covid-19 that the death rate numbers were correct as of March 8th, 10 days ago.

Thanks for correcting those numbers.

The percentiles for the most part sadly still reflect the true plight in the listed countries today.

And I've bookmarked the link you included. Morbidly fascinating data showing that this is not going away any time soon.

Like Rob @45, I don't trust the government, there's something dodgy going on and it's not a virus.

I work at a pharmaceutical production site and can't do my role from home so I'm still travelling to and fro regularly and mixing with dozens of co-workers. I haven't stockpiled and, whilst I am keeping my shopping trips to a minimum, every time I go, the grocery shops are like they are around Christmas!

My Mum and my uncle are in the at-risk bracket and my Mum is due for some important hospital appointments which may be key in keeping her healthy enough through this period. I live a couple of hundred miles from her and have no idea if or when I would next be able to sensibly visit her.

Although I'm not in the same category, I don't have any guarantees that I would automatically be okay if I contracted the disease, so I am doing the sensible things we have all been advised to do to minimise transmission but, with some goods already hard to find, I'm not sure how we could handle more severe restrictions for what is effectively an indeterminate period of time with no guarantee of a better-than-average outcome anyway.

With the current mixing that is still happening, and must keep happening to some extent for supply lines to remain open, I don't see that a controlled behind-closed-doors continuation of the Premier League poses a significant threat to either the players or the general population, and may even help the ongoing psychological readjustment.

It's not that it is significant or required, but it could be a sign that we are not completely at the mercy of the pandemic.

I wish everyone health, safety, strength of mind and the support of others, but I also know I will need the return of some sense of normalcy and control over our personal decisions in the relatively near future to feel we are working through this crisis and are not merely helpless in the face of it.

I can understand your sentiments; however, good and reliable infomation is king during these trying times. Knowledge is power and ignorance – although it can be blissful – can be very dangerous to all of us.

Unfortunately, there will always be an element of the powerful attempting to re-arrange things to suit their own purposes; however, I think many of those in charge behaved like ostriches and hoped it would all just go away, but now they have to act in a responsible way, as do we, in order to make the crisis manageable.

Limit yourself to the amount of news you consume by all means if that helps to alleviate any anxiety you may have, but conspiracy theories, even the most plausible, won't have any effect on the virus and can cause unwarranted alarm. Stay safe and healthy.

I can't give you a logical or reasonable answer to that hypothesis.

Two countries will not have minded much – the English, with Harry Kane injured; and the Dutch, with three strikers seriously injured: Memphis Depay (was doing his best to come back in record time, but can take it easier now); Steven Bergwijn; and Donyell Malen.

This gives the national leagues more time to be able to finish, which is sensible too.

So why are you banging on about having the league completed? The league is completed – this virus will not allow any further football for the foreseeable future.
You are naturally very concerned for yourself and family – aren't we all! Football is just a game – Coronavirus is life or death – a little more serious, I am sure you will agree.

I am not sure if it is other posters that May have commented but I hope they see the bigger picture and understand not just your concerns but others as well.

We are here as a family John, so please keep posting and keeping in touch with us all, it is ToffeeWeb that is keeping us sane in these worrying times.

Love reading your posts John, long may they continue, please keep safe.

I wrote, probably on this thread, that the football authorities were more concerned with finance than the welfare of the players and fans. I seem to have irritated Robert, but all I've said from the outset is that the Premier League should make a decision one way or the other, either keep the League season active, or declare the competition null and void.

If you are banging on, please keep doing it. You make many very enjoyable, sensible, politely put points of view in my opinion.

The closing date is this Friday, so if anyone can add a link for other posters to add comments of support, may be worth using a few minutes to add our support on the submission form.

Apologies beforehand if I have missed another thread where this may have been added.

Entering comments directly on the planning portal and searching for the reference number 20F/0001, by 5pm on Friday 20 March.

In writing, by post to The Planning Department, Liverpool City Council, 4th Floor, Cunard Building, Water Street, Liverpool, L3 1AH (quoting reference number 20F/0001). Sending by post will be fine, as long as you date your comments before 20 March.

In terms of what to write, that depends on which part of the application you support. Below are a few points that I have heard from fellow Blues on why they are supporting the application:

How important a new stadium is for the future of Everton – allowing the Club the opportunity to compete with the best clubs in England and Europe.

A new stadium will enhance the matchday experience for all supporters – extra capacity, more fans and better facilities give the Club the opportunity to attract better sponsorship and then better players.

A great design that will complement Liverpool's world-famous waterfront – combination of old and new; respectful to local buildings by using bricks but also modern with glass and steel.

Planning application show Bramley-Moore Dock is the only site in the city for Everton to develop their stadium

Everton's historic, social and community connection to North Liverpool means the Club should stay in the area.

The stadium will benefit the entire city region; delivering a ٟbn boost to the economy, 15,000 jobs and potentially 1.4m new visitors. It will showcase the city to an international Premier League audience every home matchday.

The Club is preserving heritage assets on the site and opening them up for the public.

The Club is enhancing the heritage offer by bringing to life the listed hydraulic tower and supporting the city's World Heritage Site - the site is currently inaccessible, so can't be enjoyed.

A new stadium will transform North Liverpool; creating new opportunities for a neglected part of our city.

Football and the docks have always had a connection – fans and players were former dockers.

A chance for Everton to create social history and heritage for a new generation.

The Goodison Legacy Project is an opportunity to pay tribute to Goodison Park and positively impact Liverpool 4. This could not happen without a stadium development.

Link

We have got until this Friday to add our support and comments to the project.

The trouble is that there are too many Brian's for my feeble mind to cope with, I'm in need of a Clarence, Nigel, and an Archibald to communicate with.

Hi John. G. [62] thank you for your kind words, if I'm not careful I might believe them to be true. .

Hi Ken [63] I'll do my best on both counts.

To answer your question, when I say that the League is cancelled, do I mean that Liverpool are chumps and Villa demoted?

I have no idea what the powers that be decide. But there is very little likelihood of any further football for some considerable time. As one or two others have mentioned here – this season should be null and void. No Chumps no Champs. Ziltch!!

Like you, John, I do find ToffeeWeb offers a distraction from the things that matter and am always an avid reader of all views whether it is yours or the Brazilian (long-winded) Jay. One poster that I found very entertaining was Steve Ferns who appears to have had his wings clipped lately after losing his Portugese mate.

Keep up the good work, keep your family safe and, like the cough or phlegm, just get it off your chest – there are plenty that will lap it up.

It's 19:25 here in New Brighton and I am listening while writing and making some "on-line" work plans - so - just to lift the spirits and raise the grooves here is Van in full - - enjoy - - read and let the words fill you and "let your souls and spirits fly into the mystic":

"Take me back, take me way, way, way back
On Hyndford Street
Where you could feel the silence at half past eleven
On long summer nights
As the wireless played Radio Luxembourg
And the voices whispered across Beechie River
In the quietness as we sank into restful slumber in the silence
And carried on dreaming, in God
And walks up Cherry Valley from North Road Bridge, railway line
On sunny summer afternoons
Picking apples from the side of the tracks
That spilled over from the gardens of the houses on Cyprus Avenue
Watching the moth catcher working the floodlights in the evenings
And meeting down by the pylons
Playing round Mrs. Kelly's lamp
Going out to Holywood on the bus
And walking from the end of the lines to the seaside
Stopping at Fusco's for ice cream
In the days before rock 'n' roll
Hyndford Street, Abetta Parade
Orangefield, St. Donard's Church
Sunday six-bells, and in between the silence there was conversation
And laughter, and music and singing, and shivers up the back of the neck
And tuning in to Luxembourg late at night
And jazz and blues records during the day
Also Debussy on the third program
Early mornings when contemplation was best
Going up the Castlereagh hills
And the cregagh glens in summer and coming back
To Hyndford Street, feeling wondrous and lit up inside
With a sense of everlasting life
And reading Mr. Jelly Roll and Big Bill Broonzy
And "Really The Blues" by "Mezz" Mezzrow
And "Dharma Bums" by Jack Kerouac
Over and over again
And voices echoing late at night over Beechie River
And it's always being now, and it's always being now
It's always now
Can you feel the silence?
On Hyndford Street where you could feel the silence
At half past eleven on long summer nights
As the wireless played Radio Luxembourg
And the voices whispered across Beechie River
And in the quietness we sank into restful slumber in silence
And carried on dreaming in God."

Cosmic grooves and best wishes t you all - - - George.

This situation is not the same as 1939 when only three matches had been played. We are so deep into this season, there are many who argue it would fundamentally undermine the integrity of competitions just to write off the whole season – especially as there is no certainty as to when the next season could begin.

I sense a hint of sarcasm in your post, and not being a lover of sarcastic dialogue, I have no intention of entering into a war of words with you.

I agree with the majority on here that this season will have to be terminated and (hopefully) started afresh in mid-August.

Unlike 1939, when just 3 matches had been played and the season was immediately declared null and void, results of matches played, appearances and other stats could be included in records and Manchester City's Carabao Cup win would remain the only trophy awarded.

Today I had to go the 7 miles to the nearest hub of shops, so I called in on some older neighbours to see if they wanted anything. They did want a few items. The 3 of them are all in the group of people more at risk of bad reaction, one having had a heart attack last year, one just finished chemo, and the other a long-term disabled lady steadfastly battling her problems. The old in this area are mostly looked out for by their families but there are some, who moved here, like myself, with no relatives nearby.

The old folk are so cool, don't seem at all flustered, and very grateful for any help.

Just 50 yards from my place, the pub opened as usual tonight, manned by its 82-year-old owner, the same locals still going, no matter what. Half the village in lockdown, the other half continuing as normal.

It's a strange combo, but none of us know anyone who has died yet. Once we do, the attitude may change.

We played our last game of 5-a-side on Monday night (in fact, we only got 4-a-side). We will all miss the mistakes, the great goals and the banter in the pub. It is our medicine, our therapy. Like ToffeeWeb.

I can only hope we all get back to normal down the line and hope that, if we do, we all appreciate each other, and our sport, and our players a little more. This hobby we have is the icing on the cake, and I will cherish it, if we get it back, as I am sure, we will.

Keep your chins up, people; as long as there is Rioja, there is hope!

You got me on Fusco's, ah I can taste it George with the raspberry juice all over the top of it, and I'm back in those Italian ice cream parlours, one next to The Gaity picture house in Scotty, one just outside Great Homer Street market, one in Islington, another in Kensington, I bet I dream about one of them tonight, goodnight God bless George, cosmic ‘ ice cream ‘ grooves to you George along with best wishes and good health.

With matchday and TV revenues cut off Everton, like most clubs, must be taking a huge financial hit.

I'm not holding my breath but it would be really good to hear our players offering to take a paycut until the crisis is over,

If they did I'd happily write off any refund on my season ticket.

I endorse everything that's been said by all who have posted wishing you well. If we come out of this nightmare episode unscathed, I'll be looking forward to the 'Daddy' of ToffeeWeb get-togethers.

Assuming next season takes place in any recognizable form, Uefa can invite whichever teams they want to participate in their own peculiar competitions, regardless of the lack of league trophies right across the continent.

In short, the money in football will vastly outweigh the sanctity of mere trophies to the powers that be.

I do have to declare that my medical expertise extends to having had a lot of injuries and illnesses for which there is very little training required but, at the beginning of this outbreak, a University "expert" was asked what the worst-case scenario might be and his answer was, 65 million dead worldwide.

Now, my all-time favourite team...

Both China and Japan have reported isolated cases of people getting it twice. And researchers have been so far unable to confirm that getting the virus and then recovering actually confers immunity. They just don't know yet.

Alan J, read about the town in Northern Italy, right in the middle of this war-zone, and they have defeated this horrible virus. They have beaten it because they have done what the WHO have been telling us, and that is to test, test, test.

The problem is that to many people are asymptotic, so they have no symptoms and are spreading without realising it. Only by testing, can this be achieved, but it's easy talking, and I just hope there is some mileage in this Japanese influenza drug?

Just on the football front its being reported that the Premier league would like to finish this season, the Brighton Chairman has said he thinks it would be unfair on Liverpool if the season was null and void. Thousands are dying and will continue to do so for some months and he is worried it will be unfair on Liverpool if the season is null and void. My other point is in the next few weeks we normally get our reminder to renew our season tickets, so how do we do that if the intention is to finish this season whenever that will be. Also for clubs in danger of relegation, I guess that might have an impact on people having to commit now to buying a season ticket.

I read that the CDC estmates around 30,000 died from 'flu in US alone from October to February, the same time as this coronovirus outbreak.

Of course I hope that those in the high risk categories remain safe, but for the rest of the population, is it really any worse than 'flu?

One of mine is the season ticket issue which you talk about, I pay by cash, don't have any bank cards, so with Everton FC and Goodison Park closed down how do I pay for next seasons, season ticket, the closing date for early
payments is April 2nd, I hope they make an announcement about this, I repeat, unimportant issue.

Paul what do you think?

Interested to know your theory!

In the case of the coronavirus outbreak, the essential thing, like for any hazard to life, is to identify sensible control measures. That should be the focus, rather than the incessant chatter that fails to put a hazard into perspective in relation to other hazards with a far greater danger.

A trouble with incessant negativity is that it's a distortion of reality that contributes to fear and some panic. These reflect a disproportionate response to a problem, a response that can generate other problems, including economic ones.

As others have said, here and elsewhere, the mortality rate for this virus is (so far) very low so let's take the necessary precautions but for fucks sake, stop panic buying!!! There's enough food for everyone.

P.s. I was studying in the USA when the AIDS virus was first reported in the early 80's and even though I'm not gay that was fucking scary as hell as no one knew what the hell it was, how it was transmitted and would it spread into the wider community. Context please, context.

Usually our club are at the forefront at assisting fans when there are difficulties like this. I am amazed that they havent already emailed everybody to say that the purchasing of your season ticket for next season will be postponed till a later day to be agreed. Seems even if they decide to play behind closed doors it may be months before these games can take place. Also most clubs arent even training at the moment. And as the virus spreads although it wont impact on fit young footballers what if clubs are asked to play behind closed doors but have 2 players as testing positive for the virus, what happens then.

Who are "they"?
Why do they want us to do as they say?

That's how Viet Nam successfully dealt with their first wave, and are now dealing with the second.

And what happened to that? Does AIDS even get a mention in the press any more? Has it stopped killing people? Did they find a cure or antidote to it so it is no longer relevent?

Or has it just become un-newsworthy because the press need to generate more clickbait headlines?

I agree with your sentiments, that until this virus is under control then as pretty much has happened, sport worldwide has been put on hold. There are still some like Lord Coe who think its to early to cancel the Olympic games, I am all for being positive but this virus is still spreading to countries who so far havent got any cases, but it seems this virus will reach all parts of the world at some point.

Talking of positivity I think its brilliant that all the scientists across the world are working together, and looking at all different ways to slow this virus. I am sure that China and South Korea and Hong Kong and Taiwan are advising the rest of the world how they have started to combat the spread of this virus. I would hope that if this has taught the world anything is working together for the common good is better than conflict and division. Seems only the idiot in the White house wants to blame China for the virus, a man who just over a week ago was telling Americans this will pass over and virtually denied the existance of the virus 2 weeks ago.

It is very important for people to have the flu vaccine, to reduce their risks. But the risks are not eliminated, and the seasonal flu deaths are an important factor to be considered in gaining perspective on the coronavirus. Control measures, particularly by governments, have to be based on perspective, which is why those measures should be 'proportional'.

It's well worth a look mate.

Ah, so that explains why all the world leaders supported by the opposition parties and experts (in medicine, epidemiology etc) are doing what they are doing!

Boris Johnson (supported by the opposition parties), Angela Merkel (supported by the opposition parties), Macron (supported by...), Trump (supported...), Giuseppi Conte in Italy, national leader after national leader after national leader...

My God, what a conspiracy.

I think the world practiced a form of social distancing - do I need to spell it out? It was transmitted via bodily fluids and we had methodologies to prevent bodily fluids coming into contact with each other such as rubber gloves for health professionals. We also tried not to interact with infected persons.

And then they developed drugs which slowed down the progression of the disease. And remember, COVID19 has a death rate of around 1% of those who catch it. AIDS had, as I recall, a 100% death rate (mind you so does being conceived).

It is only now 35 years later are we hearing of people who are actually being cured of AIDS.

And I agree - they said we were all going to die. As I sat on the sofa watching the government health warnings I said to my wife that we wouldn't. Some of us take the teachings of the bible more seriously than others and that tells us not to commit adultery. And we didn't do drugs. That is how it has been. So we weren't in danger except for a year later when my wife became anaemic after the birth of our first and the doctors wanted to give her a blood transfusion. She declined (good timing by the Doctors, let's suggest it on Day 4 when the "Blues" kick in) it vehemently and promised to take double iron tablets for the next 6 weeks.

Following all of your research what would your advice be to the population ?

And of course they didn't explain the difference back the between HIV and AIDS, since it was all good scarenongering clickbait.

"Carry on doing as your told, it's what they want", you say.

Who are "they"?

Why do they want us to do as they say?

I'm not in the high risk category myself so am not so concerned but I trust that your venrable Dad and others like him remain healthy. I just think a prison sentence of 4 months is a bit harsh.

Before Monday, the policy was basically to do very little and, let people become infected, and build up the herd immunity we read so much about. This included little testing.

Imperial had used the latest data from Italy and other places, like Spain, and this data showed that this strategy led to 80% of the population becoming infected, also in USA by the way, with a consequent death rate of 260,000.

It also models the impact of the various strategies of social isolation, over 70s, closing schools etc, and by applying each or all of these strategies it can reduce the death rate substantially. Hence what we're seeing now. London is next because it is way ahead of the curve.

The editor of the Lancet excoriated the Government yesterday, because their approach should never have been so half arsed in the first place and all the data to support what is now the strategy was already there and available, and driving the fundamentally different approach in China, Italy etc.

The testing outside hospitals stopped as soon as the containment phase was over so is limited to people in hospital with the symptoms, but not the staff. Testing is now up to 4-6000 daily and is supposed to rise to 25000 a day at some unspecified point, because no kits are currently available seemingly.

So it seems at some point that questions need answering, but there are clearly other priorities now.

One interesting issue regarding the situation with pubs and restaurants. It is said that by not closing them but by causing their business to fall off the cliff, he has saved Big Insurance a massive cost on claims on business disruption policies. Conspiracy or Cock Up?

Usually overwhelmingly Cock Up, but on something like this with this Tory government, you never know.

My own point of view is that I go about my daily routine as far as the government don't fcuk about with it, which they are now starting to do.

My daughter's school has closed and her O levels are possibly in jeopardy, so I have no Uber Dad work, but fortunately my favourite pub is still open.

Seeing as most clubs are not training at the moment, would it be stupid to ask these clubs to set up a place were they could administer this test when it becomes available. As they are qualified to test the players to see if they have contracted the virus. And it would take some pressure off NHS staff if the physios at the clubs could administer the tests.

I heard on the radio yesterday that Italy has the second oldest population in the world, after Japan, and this was instrumental in the abnormally high death rate. Is that the case?

Yes it is true. It was part of the data in the model predicting mortality by age group

I think the tests the Chinese and South Koreans have is a test to see if you have the symptoms or not, whereas what our government are saying they are close to producing a test that nobody else has yet. Which is a test to say if you have had it which would allow people who have had it return to work. Where the Chinese test is positive or negative but not able to say if you have had it.

Me too and my wife both 72.

Apparently the estimated mortality rate for this in UK is 1%, or lower the guy on the tv said,but they're not sure really. The rate seems to differ country to country, week to week.

Seasonal flu mortality is 0.1% apparently.

Stan @148 There seem to be lots of people (not on here) that are comparing this to flu. But the one thing to keep in mind is that there is currently no cure for this. You're right, hundreds of thousands from people do die from flu every year. But the vast majority are from third-world countries that have no vaccine - see the issue?. Last year, Italy had about 2,000 deaths, and the UK had about 1,000.

The mortality rate for flue is 0.1% of the people who catch it. A damn sight more people are going to catch this, and even the most modest mortality rate is 2% (we're at 4% to 5%)... well, do the maths :(

I have no doubt that, eventually, we will sort this out, but I think it's going to be a very different world on the other side. And it's going to be a painful journey for many of us.

In addition to the mortality rate, which is the chance that a person dies given that they're infected, another significant factor is the chance of infection. The two factors together determine the chance that a person chosen at random will die from the disease in question.

For seasonal flu, globally the generic chance of infection is around 16%, and the mortality rate is about 0.05%, giving about 1 billion infections and 500,000 deaths annually around the world.

For Covid19, globally the generic chance of infection is unknown but the measures put in place are aimed at reducing it as far as possible. The global mortality rate is about 4%. These two factors combined are determining the numbers of deaths globally, currently around 9,000 and increasing, with the obvious aim of slowing this increase through the control measures being put in place.

When you compare indices between flu and Covid-19, such as the mortality rate, it has to be done in the above context, not in isolation.

The trick is to avoid assertions such as that one, and focus on control measures aimed at reducing the chances of people being infected. It's the control measures that are practical and save lives, not the various opinions on how many will be infected or how much of an armageddin it will be. That is simply panic talk which helps nobody.

If you add these cases to the known cases, the mortality rate falls accordingly

High Elderly Population
High % smokers
Cultural Closeness
Old small style cities and streets

Couple that with a politically slow and impotent government response to the Corvid-19 Virus early stages.

The recent high deaths In Italy are not from new cases but from people who have been in ICU for a long period of time. Also the boom in cases is due to improved testing. You can only find what you test which is why Virus numbers are meaningless unless displayed as a ratio of people tested or as a % head of population.

Perspective is needed but we do need to heed advice esp if you are elderly or have an LTC.

I notice the Rumour Mill has been quite short on possible transfers recently other than a Brazilian from France.

You make a legitimate comparison between the numbers Covid-19 impacts on and typical annual fatalities that can be attributed to the common flu.

Others make legitimate observations of how global death rates are being calculated and thus possibly exaggerating the threat.

But where you lose credibility in my eyes is the evident leaning in your posts to conspiracy theories.

All the more ironic then that you answer the challenges Brent Stephens puts to you by telling him ‘If you think there's a conspiracy, that's up to you' when in fact it's YOU that's clearly positing conspiracy theories.

Your very first post in this thread @ 47 set the tone:

‘Can I give you all a bit of advice. Don't watch the news, deffo don't read the papers, and keep off the internet. It's all done to scare the crap out of you.'

Rrrrright!

So presuming you follow your own sage advice, where are you sourcing your own information from that gives you such a deeper, more enlightened view, than the rest of us? Or do you reach this conclusion solely by listening to the voices in your head?

Your final sentence in that post heavily implies there is a deeper conspiracy behind all this, a deliberate manipulation by unnamed malevolent agents.

You reinforce that implication @ 45 by adding ‘I don't trust the government, there's something dodgy going on and it's not a virus.'

And again @ 51. ‘Funny how China are now returning to normal, after spending millions on cheap shares. When they go up, they will be worth billions.'

I haven't read anyone, anywhere, let alone on TW, making the claims you do @ 96: ‘So you all think that shutting down everything, collapsing the worlds economy, thousands if not millions losing there jobs world wide for a virus with a 2% death rate is normal.'

On the contrary, many have expressed deep concern at the financial, social and emotional cost of the initiatives governments are implementing across the globe.

Many have expressed their views in both a stoical and light-hearted fashion.

I don't sense any ‘tone' of panic here on TW or in my immediate social circle or beyond.

Concern, yes. Curious to learn more to understand things better, most definitely yes.

As for attributing blame to the media for pushing panic to hysterical and paranoid levels, other than what I see and read from online media I can't speak for paper or radio media in the UK, but I can categorically state that here in Brazil the media is at the forefront of EDUCATING people and keeping them informed about the situation, NOT sowing panic and hysteria. In that, they are doing a far better job of things than the Government and its dysfunctional President, Jair Bolsonaro, who every day contradict themselves.

I myself have posted links to articles penned by the likes of infectologists and similar stressing there is no need for widespread panic, but effective counter-measures do need to be made.

So forgive me Paul, but I (and I fancy a good many other TWers) am well capable of researching, reading, comparing, confirming and reaching my own conclusions rather than submissively take as gospel a bloke posting on a footy forum telling me ‘not to watch the news, deffo don't read the papers, and keep off the internet [oh, the irony!] because of some unnamed conspiracy that it's all a plot to scare the crap out of us'.

You continue believe that this is part of a malicious Machiavellian plot if you wish. That there's some secret Illuminati, meeting periodically at sprawling Texas ranches or alpine Swiss Chalets, mysteriously unmapped by Google Maps. Silk-suited behemoths of industry and politics, near-translucent albinos with ice-blue eyes; others barely breathing linked up to respiratory machines. I won't.

Me? I'll put this down to:
• successive governments all around the globe consistently and persistently eroding budgets for public health and social welfare programs to the point that many services are now seriously underfunded, under-staffed and under-resourced to handle a crisis such as this.
• incompetent politicians in power first in denial, wishing this away, more concerned with buoying the markets than addressing the issue.
• a total lack of contingency plans by said governments and politicians for such a crisis as this, resulting in the mish-mash of reactionary solutions we see being randomly applied rather than a unified, co-ordinated global plan.

We'll get through this. Not because of Central Government, but in spite of it. Governments could and should fall as a result of how they have handled things.

But I'm more than confident that normal life will be resumed. Industry, production and the economy will recover. The great unknown at the moment is the ‘when'. And that is what is spooking governments and the markets the most, not their citizens' welfare.

Quick update: The US CDC has just posted statistics showing that almost 40% of the people here requiring hospitalization for the coronavirus are in the 20-54 age range. So the issue isn't just deaths, which are primarily concentrated among older folks, but the potential for the health system to be buried under seriously ill younger folks as well.

Just reading now that the Prem is determined to finish this current season, even if it's at the end of the summer.

Just curious from your wife and contacts how much Coronavuris impacted the rest of China. Media reports make it seem as if it solely affected Wuhan then jumped to Italy and Korea. I imagine it must have spread throughout China too though I specially when they were in the denial phase?

I think the term Quality Adjusted Life Years is used to refer to the cost-benefit calculations that need to be made about who lives, who dies. I've seen a doctor on TV this week anguishing about these types of decision where bed capacity might not meet demand unless that "infection curve" is flattened and pushed back. Horrible decisions.

No one knew what it was, how it was transmitted, where it came from and when would it end. That was scary. This one? I'm still unsure tbh.

One thing about this virus and the possible food shortages - it might just "flatten the curve" for me, under my belt.

Parts of Hubei are starting to be opened. My wife has been told that Wuhan itself will only open on a limited basis when they go two weeks with no new cases.

Either the alcohol kills the virus itself or being in a drunken stupor keeps you from spreading it.

Come on, Rob, you've not just "heard" that. Acting all innocent! I suspect your wine cellar has been restocked.

Bullish about testing with massive increase in testing for it aimed at. But new antibody test to see if you've had it and recovered, less vulnerable and able to return to work. Or a family member can also return to work because they've also quarantined themselves They've first got to test the test!

Aim is ultimately 250,000;tests per day. Next priority for testing is NHS staff.

Cases will continue to rise for at least 2 weeks and then they hope to see the level of increase maybe flatten a bit because of social distancing, which they seem to think is being done effectively.

New laws to be passed next week giving massive special powers. Lasting 2 years! Interesting to see how many are retained.

Pretty bullish and low key about increasing strength of actions against pubs and restaurants for example

Let life unfold

Sorry, should have made notes!

They have said they are hopeful he's going to pull through because the bacteria hasn't spread, but the x-ray shows big shadows on both lungs, his blood cells are not good, and it's wrecked his immune system, and apparently one doctor has said he's going to be in this for the long-haul.

No bullshit, it's not something I'd joke about, but anyone who's had lung problems, is going to get a really bad do, it seems, although this might not be true, because unless we show symptoms, we might not even know we are infectious, and are therefore putting many people at risk.

Governments are more worried about their economies, especially in England, where I'm hoping the changes being implemented, can hopefully begin to slow this virus down?

Most of us are more worried for others, so hopefully as many people as possible, get through the next few months, and the human race can become a better species once again! Take care everyone Xx

Underlying health problems, which the elderly generally have more of, are obviously factors in how any virus impacts people. As you say, if you have certain lung conditions, you're at higher risk, etc. The important thing is to focus on practical measures to protect people, particularly such vulnerable groups. More focus on measures, and less hyperbole, should be the order of the day, precisely because it's a serious matter with no place for unwarranted speculation or assertion such as we see from some politicians, the media, and many ordinary punters.

Stay safe.

'If we get through all this, we need to take a long hard look at the system that is built on a house of cards.'

Paul Mason in the NewStatesman has argued just that (about capitalism - just one aspect of this crisis) in this article.

Link

Not all journalists and media outlets are panic merchants writing clickbait as some believe. There are quality articles out there to read.

I fancy we will get a lot more articles and lobbyists questioning political, environmental and financial systems in the wake of this year's events to date.

I for one will be intrigued to see how such large scale halt in industrial input which has also radically reduced vehicle use, impacts on air and water quality.

There is already evidence, for example, from NASA satellite images that over Wuhan there has been a significant reduction in Nitrogen dioxide emissions as a result of normal activities being suspended there.

My gut instinct, however, is that once the worst is passed all and sundry will scurry back to the save haven of the known rather than learn deeper lessons from this crisis.

Paul Mason I have a lot of respect for.

'I'd love you to be wrong just the once mate!'

Never met my missus, obviously Tony! She'd soon put you right!

Sobering tale about the lad you know who you wrote of earlier in the thread, Tony.

On my own personal note, I had to drive around my local 'hood today, looking for my 95-year-old father-in-law who broke cover and did a runner from self-isolation!

First stop the barber's shop where he likes to hang out and chat. Been and gone. Next stop, the street tapioca stall. Sight unseen.

Moving on to the 'Jogo do Bicho' man sat on the street with his foldaway table and chair, ready to do a runner himself should the cops drive past and catch him hawking the illegal but hugely popular gambling game. Yep! Spotted, but moved on.

Next, the church square shaded by 40 metre high Brazil Nut trees. No sightings. Finally, struck gold at the local chicken slaughterer (choose your chook and have it slaughtered, de-feathered and cut up as desired before your very eyes).

'He just left 5 minutes ago'. And sure enough, I find him just about to re-enter the house.

I let his 90-year-old spouse give him the full 5-minute fusilade before sitting down quietly with him for my own lighter, but concerned chat.

95-year-old. Respiratory problems. Constant cold. Reformed smoker. Secretly coughs and spits his phlegm on the floor indoors and rubs it out with his sandal, hoping nobody spots him.

What's to worry about?!

It's because we love them that we want to protect them.

The booger!

Sorry to hear about that young man. Sadly though there is some merit to the concern over the economy. How many people starved, commited suicide, died because of weakened immune systems due to compromised health and lack of welfare during the Great Depression? It's not to be dismissive by any means of the terrible suffering of corona victims, but in fairness to the politicians they do have a responsibility to look ahead and see the environment our kids will grow up in. I don't see it as an economy v health issue. I see it as a disaster and everyone is scrambling for the least bad solutions as there is no magic wand remedy. That's why even though I greatly dislike Trump, Boris, Ji, etc I'm mindful of the fact there is no playbook here, and we're judging them by guessing if there best guesses seem prudent or not. Only time will tell but in the mean time best wishes to everyone affected.

Conspiracy or cock-up, the choice is yours.

My own view of life is that we have to just get on with things, no use moaning, no use looking for blame, and if people, or governments don't pull together, it will only become a whole lot worse.

Never walk alone? They've been known to snatch tickets out of each other's hands on many occasions, so I've just been to Graceland, with Paul Simon, and now I'm just waiting for Diamonds on the soles of her shoes!

Like you, I found the same. I went to the local Sainsbury's at 9:30 yesterday morning. It was the first morning they had the first hours shopping for over-70s and vulnerable people from 7:30. And after rationing had been introduced.

Store had been stripped bare, pretty well. No meat left apart from odd bits here and there. No fresh vegetables left except broccoli, which says something. Beer all gone, no toilet rolls, gel, paracetamol or pasta, tinned tomatoes.

The queue was round the block on opening and at the check-outs right round the store even when we got there.

If this after rationing imposed, then the limits are too high.

Store staff saying that no further deliveries until night time.

As we packed our meagre purchases, I noticed that the three big containers for food bank donations were full to overflowing, so I guess that's something.

Tried online shopping but no delivery slots for 3 weeks. Tesco or Sainsbury's.

There is clear lack of leadership at the top. Instead of a well-thought-out, coordinated and coherent approach to sensible and authoritative control measures (proper marshalling of behaviour), the UK government appears quite laissez-faire in its approach. That approach seems to consist of frightening people with lurid worst-case scenarios and then letting them get on with it, with the crazy behaviour that follows.

I also think that this particular Government is torn between their political instincts to allow the individual to make their own decisions, which in some cases may not be the best for the rest of society and clamping down hard which may be the best for society as a whole but goes against the Tories usual political view.

The details within the Emergency powers Bill will reveal the true motives of this Government. Those powers will be in place for two years and could be more concerning than the virus itself for many ordinary folk.

John I do think that there are a lot more good people than bad in this world, I have heard many instances were people are looking after their neighbours. Now that supermarkets are limiting people to 2/3 items at most hopefully this panic buying will stop during the next week or so when these new measures have had time to work. Just on a positive I was watching daytime telly today something I hardly ever do. there was a professor from Southampton University talking about this antibody that while it wont stop the contagion it could help reduce the effectiveness of the virus. He went on to say if anybody had asked him a few weeks back about producing an effective drug he would have said it would take probably 12 months. But with scientists all over the world working together he believes that solutions will be found a hell of a lot quicker.

So to allow these scientists the time to produce drugs or vaccines to either slow down the speed of the virus or reduce the effect of the virus they need time. But to allow them that time the people need to heed the message thats the same from all countries effected isolate don't meet in gatherings, young people just because it seems thankfully not to effect your age group, think about your parents and aunts and uncles who could be effected if you continue to carry on as normal.

I guess we know what's going on because the media tell us. Personally I want to know what's going on, especially as it's changing daily, including how many people have died - no small matter.

I suppose if anybody wants to get away from being constantly told, they can just get away from it. But then they wouldn't know what's going on.

Bizarre.

The media shouldn't report on this [as they are] because 'we know what's going on..?'

How does that work then?

How else do we keep informed?

Via a Oija Board?

Paper, radio and TV media has - and is playing - an important role in this. Educating and informing us on events.

It is for each individual to be a discerning and questioning reader, listener or viewer of what they read, hear or see and what they believe in.

Filter out the sensationalism. Focus on the more studious articles. Check them against the known and proven science.

Anybody and everybody with access to the internet has that option.

If however you belong in a group as you described yourself yesterday Paul as someone who 'take things at face value, no arguments' then with respect, doesn't that place you in the group you describe this morning as 'brain-dead morons and thick?'

To much news didn't work for her- because it's all bad news at the minute, is what she said. Looking back, she can't believe she wasn't tougher on her teenage kids, once the first half-hearted curfew came, and the biggest one was telling us to drag things out, and try new recipes, because the only thing we are going to have on our hands is time. She also said that the panic over food was madness, and the Italian people can still go and stock up daily, even now

I just hope the press don't go the other way and start telling us it's not as bad as we feared, simply because if they do, I'll personally believe that things will have definitely got out of hand.

My experience was at Neston, so not so far away. We were a bit later, and were also in that age group. It's what we were told by the staff to be fair.

Maybe they've got replenishment issues, ordering issues etc. They said they weren't getting a delivery until that evening so an empty store all day.

Sacking offence when I was in retailing.

Do you go to The Bow-Legged Beagle in Upton?

I am simply demonstrating that in this thread Paul is being very free and easy in dissing other people's views and labelling them in the most disparaging way.

In doing so he portrays himself as being wiser and more insightful than others.

It is my opinion that nearly all his posts do exactly the contrary.

To go all Shakesperian, he is being hung by his own petard.

To go all Shakesperian, he is being hung by his own petard..

He's fucked for treatment on his petard there, the hospitals are all chocker.

I haven't bought a newspaper since 1980 (I used to get the Guardian, Telegraph and New Statesman), because I eventually realised that any subject I knew anything about was generally misleadingly reported. I also don't bother a lot looking at the BBC, and have to use judgement to sort out genuine substance from shite.

Thankfully, these days we have an infinite library in the internet, which enables access to more substantial information, which obviously requires a bit of work to sift through ‘information' towards ‘knowledge' and ‘insight'. Without that sifting, we are presented, broadly speaking, with an awful lot of sensationalist drivel that can swamp folks who don't have either the time or inclination to do the required sifting.

From his very first post Paul is very explicit:

'Don't watch the news, deffo don't read the papers, and keep off the internet. It's all done to scare the crap out of you.'

Further posts by Paul offered highly speculative fatuous conspiracy theories related to Covid-19.

Read my posts in this thread. I advocate exactly what you appeal for. NOT to take everything in the media at face value (which Paul himself this very morning admited he does/did), but to be a more discerning consumer of the news. To do the research and perform the checks and balances you yourself undertake.

If, as you claim, folk who aren't so rigorous in their fact checking get 'swamped' by misinformation because they have neither the time nor the inclination to do the required sifting, whose fault is that?

As I've repeated in other posts, the print, radio and TV media in Brazil is doing an excellent job in educating and informing the population of events, far more effectively and honestly than the Government.

I can't speak for all branches of the UK media because I can't access all of them. But are ALL media outlets and every journalist being sensationalist and irresponsible as you and Paul wish to imply?

It's not ME describing people (or even Paul) as 'brain-dead morons and thick.'

That comes from Paul himself.

I would also say in conclusion it is not the media that is driving the panic buying we are seeing. That comes very much from the individuals and their own choices.

It happens every time in crisis such as this and is as much to do with 'fight or flight' survival instincts as it is with anything people see, read or hear in the media.

It is rationale behaviour as much as it is paranoid behaviour.

Here is a radio article on the psychology behind the phenomen.

Link

Of course, you may want to verify the content from other sources yourself Stan. ;-)

I'm very much with Paul on this. This is a brutal virus but it could and should have been dealt with far better than it has. If it had we wouldn't have the panic and empty shelves we have now.

Loads of "our generation" were leaving the place with no Alchohol in their trolleys. . . . Then somebody spotted several boxes of Vera Lynn on the delivery guys pump truck...I havent seen so many leavers dash back in since Dan Goslings late cup winner against the RS

There is plenty of flex in the supply chain if people behave sensisbly.

I buy food for a living and my suppliers are actually cancelling orders due to lack of demand. the supply world does end at the supermarket, There are thousands of eateries, pubs, hotels etc that will not be placing orders. There will be a large over supply to the market

So I would have to say right now there are too many brain dead morons out there

So the NHS staff are working these long hours to (hopefully not) treat these same people who are panic / stockpiling should they catch the virus. If I worked in the NHS, I know what I would be saying to these people, and it wouldn't be nice.

Secondly, I agree that the government is not helping this. In fact, far from it as I've said @226: Politicians are supposed to provide 'intellectual leadership' (yes, don't laugh), but most of what I see is irresponsible sensationalism mixed with a laissez-faire attitude. Patrick@227 makes a valid point about the government not wishing to clamp down hard, which of course is the opposite extreme to what they appear to be doing. But of course they need not do either extreme, but rather implement sensible ('proportionate') measures to control behaviour. It certainly looks like it needs some control. When older folks and NHS staff go to a supermarket and can't buy what they need, then to me that's a simple example of where government needs to 'regulate' human behaviour. It's part of their job. Which they're paid to do, but aren't doing.

Thirdly, regardless of Paul's views about conspiracies, or about not looking at the news at all, I believe the central point he's making is about mainstream media responsibility. The government keeps talking about misinformation on social media, but of course that is partly fed by misinformation on mainstream media. It looks to me like it needs regulating more strictly, subject to retaining necessary freedoms.

Easily resolved mate.

Supermarkets allocate the first one or two hours opening to NHS,oap's and vulnerable only.
Proof of ID required and it's soeted

Government to pay 80% of wage for people losing jobs up to £2500 pr month

No company to pay vat until end june

I'm sure it will become clear, then of course you will have to try and access the cash!

I'm a bit upset a bit about this, although I understand the reason. My son Andy and his business partner, both great Blues, by the way, have spent the last few years building up a small chain of 3 micro pubs on the Wirral. They employ 7/8 people, and have won awards from CAMRA and are on lists of best pubs, on one list in the top 20 micropubs in the country. They've all put body and soul into this and their customers love them.

It's hard to see where they go from here tbh. But it was coming.

One of many such stories I'm sure.

If so, then Andy might want to quickly get his advertising board made up and put in place.

Ironically he'd introduced a carry out service today!

We'll see whats in the detail and take it from here.

At least he won't be exposing himself to this any more.

Ironically he'd introduced a carry out service today!

We'll see whats in the detail and take it from here.

At least he won't be exposing himself to this any more.

Ironically he'd introduced a carry out service today!

We'll see whats in the detail and take it from here.

At least he won't be exposing himself to this any more.

The images and reports of individual altruistic acts of kindness, empathy and sympathy in their communities are not as dramatic as supermarket fights for bog roll, but they are happening.

Low tech solutions are particularly helpful. One good soul has called on every house in his street and left them one green and one red coloured card to put in their front room window.

Green means everything is OK. Red is a signal that help is needed, be it a trip to the shops for provisions or to get meds from a pharmacy.

This is particularly helpful and reassuring to the elderly who are self-isolating. As one old dear said: "It's good to know there is help and support near by. It's also good to look out of my window without leaving the house and seeing green cards in the windows as a sign that my neighbours are well."

Every event in life represents an opportunity. Covid-19 as well as sadly killing people is also bringing out the best in people.

Medical staff are literally laying their lives on the line to save people.

Better hygiene practices are more commonplace.

A sense of community and helping others is also accruing.

As in the wake of a natural disaster such as an earthquake, the first First Aiders on the scene are always the surviving residents of the area who immediately kick into action to save people.

So it is proving with Covid-19. The Social and Health Care services cannot possibly cope with each and every local cry for help. That will first and foremost come from within the affected community itself.

Whether such alturism continues beyond this crisis once it finally abates is another matter. But there are lots of 'good vibes' stories out there besides the selfish sensational ones some choose to focus on.

Agree totally! Some of this just might remain once this is all over. An eternal optimist, me!

We should all be mindful that the broadcasters are part of the machine that promotes competiveness over co-operation and individualism over collectivism. If there is one hope that I have come the other side of this health crisis it is that we the general public realises it has the power to alter the way some elements of society work and we are not merely lemmings willing to jump off a cliff.

What you'd get if you lived in:
Austria £574.70
Germany £574.70
Sweden £459.76
Netherlands £402.29
Spain £241.37

Just need the tories to join in now.

But there is hot-wired psychology behind such behaviour as the radio broadcast link I shared earlier highlights.

Link

Within that piece you have some very sensible proposals Central Government could implement to help avoid such panic buying as occurs at these times.

Another worthy read is this article in which the editor of the esteemed Lancet magazine exposes the UK Government's failings in not acting sooner on Covid-19, even though they had data and the examples of China and Italy to learn from.

Link

NB: for anyone who doesn't care to read anything beyond the 280-letter limit of a Tweet, look away now.

This is an extremely detailed and lengthy article. Similarly, the radio broadcast is about 20 minutes long.

Ironically, given the bad press of the media and journalists by some in this thread, ITV's Political Editor published a story revealing the UK Gov's intentions, subsequently criticized by many of his peers as 'irresponsible' as it did not conform to the offical line from Downing Street many were prepared to swallow and follow.

He is actually vindicated in this article.

Boris Johnson and his ministers and advisors don't come out of it so well.

Don't forget, it is just a week ago this very day, appropriately on Friday the 13th, that BJ made his first serious public declaration on how his government intended combating the crisis.

Such was the wave of criticism from the scientific and medical community at the folly of the proposals that just 3 days later, on Monday this week, sterner steps were taken. With each passing day this week, the ratchet cranked up a notch or two on measures to be taken.

As the article also reports, on a conference call with major CEOs from whom Boris was looking to gain collaboration of his declared intention to change existing production lines to rush manufacture much needed ventilators to help deal with this crisis, Bozo couldn't help himself, joking "We could call it 'Operation Last Gasp'.”

Classy, Boris. Real classy.

I hope you're all enjoying yourself. There are small pub companies going out of business tonight, and staff losing their jobs.

This is not Wetherspoons or Whitbread this is a tiny company employing a handful of people, selling quality craft and real ale to a loyal customer base.

I know each and every one of this team, so you'll forgive me if I don't feel like laughing.

Take care.

sorry to hear about your son's pubs. Hopefully the Govt. will make claiming the support they promise as easy as possible. So they will all be ok,

There has been a small revolution going on in this country. Conventional pubs have been closing down in their hundreds over a fair few years. These are often big pubs, tied to a brewery who make huge demands on the pub tenant I terms of what they can sell and what they can charge. All they can sell is whatever the industrial brewer produces. Much if it Shite. The tenant can make pence on a pint.

There has been a massive increase in independent micro breweries producing small batch local artisan brews. These guys are Mavericks with a zeal for beers that have unique character. It's like a throwback to a hundred years ago with a knowledge which is totally modern.

In line with this there has been a growth of independent micropubs selling local beers. This has produced the first increase in pubs for years,replacing these big old tired premises. Again a throwback..

They're tiny premises and there are typically no tv or games. People enjoy beer and conversation. That's it really. No food either.

Tonight has probably resulted in this revolution potentially being snuffed out. Micropubs closing, microbreweries too.

A shame really.

Check out The Bow-Legged Beagle to see what I'm talking about.

Not sure which is the majority, the altruistic or the selfish.
These days it's seemingly becoming normal for self centred behaviour to be regarded as smart or ‘streetwise'; or maybe it has always been that way as some gangster / wide-boy types have always seemed to have admirers.
Some people are unshameable. I've heard (but not witnessed) there have been shoppers who have had items taken off them (because they were taking too much) simply unload their trolley in the car park and sneakily return to the shop for another go around, and people posting photos of their mammoth loo roll stockpile. Couldn't these people be served with an ASBO or something?

If it's done sensibly there is no problem in running messages for vulnerable people.
No need for direct contact with them.
Be honest with you mate, no way am I staying indoors for however many weeks.

Got a great text before.

"They asked your grandfather to go to war.
They are asking you to sit on a couch watching tv"

I'm leaving them alone for the moment, but we'll have a conversation in due course. As you say time is not an issue, although Andy may find his time monopolised by his 6 year old son Jacob, now home full time. Jacob is also a Blue too, although he tries to shock me by telling me he likes Liverpool just to see my (over)reaction.

As to Johnson, he behaves like a chat show host on those conferences. 3 months my arse.

The only similarity with the war is food shortages. Last time because of supply issues this time it's demand issues.

At least the pubs stayed open!

I know exactly what you and your son are going through.

This very morning I've spoken to a tearful sister back in the UK who last night had the mother of a 'Last Orders' bash in the pub she runs with her husband.

It has been run by the hubby's family for four generations going back to the days of stage coaches.

Right now, they have no idea if they have closed the doors for the last time or not.

They don't know if they can claim assistance from the Govt proclamations made yesterday.

They don't know how soon they may have to let staff go which in turn has further consequences for other families.

Bozo the Clown also mentioned yesterday that takeaway outlets can still operate. I advised my sister to look at that option to have some money coming in as she does great pub grub.

I know only too well how the big breweries operate with their restrictive tenanted landlord system which dictates their stock and pricing which has driven many a local to closure.

I looked up your lad's pub Chris. It looks a belter.

I know you said they don't do pub grub like my sister, but I'm sure they have built up a loyal clientele.

Why doesn't he explore the same suggestion I made to my sister?

People presumably won't be able to get to offies, supermarkets or pubs to stock up. Offer a bevy home delivery service. I'm sure there would be takers.

Promote it on his website, set up a WhatsApp group, FB page, whatever.

This could present an opportunity, rather than the end of a dream.

Good luck!

Their first was in New Brighton, second in Upton Village, and their latest opened in Bromborough Village last week!

You'll certainly be made welcome when all this plays out.

You begin to see how shitty this whole thing really is, with the stories of the real impact on real people. There's probably a million similar stories. I hope your sister and her family come through as well as they can.

I'm keeping my distance at the moment as he's got a bit of processing to do, but the things you mention are possibilities. I think the takeaways cover both food and drink. Ironically they launched a carry out service yesterday.

But I'll let you know what happens, thanks.

Re the Irby Club, I think my great uncle, John C Devaney May have had an involvement there in its very early days.

Be alert, there is a world shortage!

Likewise Singapore and Hong Kong have had success in preventing the spread and the death rate of the virus, although both have done it slightly differently. In Hong Kong all new arrivals were fitted with bracelets bit like some prisoners wear, and this allowed the government to check on their movements as they were told to stay home. Singapore put many into self isolation and they were contacted by the authorities several times a day, and had to send photographic evidence that they had indeed self isolated. Schools are still open in Singapore although large gatherings are banned. Where in Hong Kong schools are closed but bars and restaurants are still open. South Korea while it had a big spike at the beginning but they quickly developed a test for the virus and put into place a mass testing of the country. They have so far tested 290,000 people and still continue to test 10,000 a day. They now seem to have got the virus under control.

As the WHO say test,test,test seems to be the way to help combat the spread and therefore the death rate. As the governments Chief Medical officer suggested the other day they are close to being able to roll out a test not only saying if you have the virus but this test would also say if you have had the virus, which as he said would be a massive game changer.

Yes I knew he was prominent in some way,my sister is researching the family tree, with a bit of help from me, but not much. He was known as Uncle Jack by my mother and her siblings.

Included in the deeds to our current house, is a deed showing that the land it's built on had been owned by John Cornelius Devaney. Quite a coincidence. His business went bust at some point, and family stories abound about him being cheated out of it.

My grandmother was a Devaney, and lived when she was a child with her family further along the road I live in now. There's loads of them buried in the graveyard of St. Winefrides. Cornelius was the previous generation and ended up the Governor General in some part of Australia.

Quite a family, all eccentrics seemingly.

Anyway, hopefully we can meet up and we all keep healthy. We might even get to discuss some Everton wins too.

Just to let you know, that all 3 Bow-Legged Beagle Pubs will be open between 1pm and 3pm tomorrow, Sunday, for Can takeaway and filling services on cask and keg. Some containers available but you can bring your own too.

It's really just to gauge demand but the response on social media has been remarkable.

Thanks for your comments and I'll let you know how it turns out.

Keep safe

There's £1B more food in peoples homes than 3 weeks ago

Staggering!

That's great news, fellah!

I read in his bio that your lad worked in retail before, so no doubt he will know some tricks to see this through. I hope so.

Take a look at the Bow-Legged Dog website people. Looks a cracking pub!

Link

And their FB page:

Link

Heard again from my sister since writing earlier. Not so happy news. Already having to let staff go. Helping them get the promised Govt aid. Not even WWII closed them. First time in nearly 100 years - 1923 - since the pub was forced to close its doors.

As for your post and numbers @ 309, doesn't that highlight the hysteria by some in recent weeks?

I'll let you know how it goes but the reaction on Facebook etc has been astonishing,
. Andy was quite emotional about it. If it all shows up tomorrow, it'll become a feature. They're doing local deliveries for self isolators.

They're sorting out the cash for their team, plus some funds for their business from the stuff announced in the budget.

Sorry to hear about your sister Jay. I sincerely hope they can find a way, mate.

Yes he's an ex retailer. I got him his work experience placement in Littlewoods when I was there, and he took it on.He's very good at it and is very service and profit driven. He doesn't suffer fools gladly and in the end decided it was best to be his own boss. He works with his best mate John, both Blues, has always been a great fan of good beer, and making conversation so he's doing something he loves, with his best mate and making a success of it.

How lucky is that! Thanks for posting the links. They've got another two pubs so they've created a nice bit of goodwill locally. Loads of regulars and they're supporting small local brewers. Nice work.

Yes it's all that selfish bollocks again. Still at it today.

As I said yesterday, it's my belief that there are far more good than bad people in the world.

I'm really not surprised that the pub's regulars and community are rallying around, supporting the business because deep down they know its importance in their lives.

I fancy it will be micro-communities like this and (if you like) this 'war-time siege' mentality between neighbours-family-friends and the like that will carry the world through this rather than the remote and overwhelmed local and central government.

Hopefully, individuals, the collective, our neighbourhoods and the world at large will be a better place for having to pass through this adversity.

One can but hope...

Keep safe. And keep supping your lad's ale!

Andrex packs on eBay last week for £85!

I've always felt that Jay, and I've kept optimistic despite all the evidence to the contrary.

I can't remember who said it but you can't be a cynic if you retain the ability to be disappointed in behaviours

No big deal mate.
Takes an hour to shop for the older neighbours, that's all.
They telephone the order to you.
No direct contact.

No that bloke would make several of me. Although I am on the photo at the top of the Facebook page, taken from the outside at night. I'm the bloke at the right of the picture in the light jacket near the bar, with his back to the camera. Grey hair glinting in the light!

If you look really carefully, on the left, right inside the window, at the front, you can see a little head bathed in light, that's my grandson Jacob, sat with his Nan. It was the night they were presented with their CAMRA award. My older son Dan is stood outside in the group to the left, with the rest of the smokers.

A nice night, for the whole family.

Not so nice last night mind

Anyway, I know around by Morrison's, on the waterfront, is Victoria Road – anywhere near there? Well I've got at least three months to find out, we'll have pint or two together to celebrate out liberation day!! I will be like VE day.

Victoria Road runs parallel to the front. The Merseyrail station is not far away on the same road. It's all had a big makeover round there, They call it the Victoria Quarter. Lots of small independent shops and cafes locally owned. A thriving little community, at least until now. People compare it to Lark Lane.

There's also the pubs in Upton Village and Bromborough Village, which are easy to reach on the train too.

All these places the businesses all work together to grow the area. No big multinationals like Costa and so on.

Dave, you would like New Brighton, but the baths have gone!

I was born in 1948, so no, but my Gram told me all about it. I ate loads of jelly and ice cream sodas with the green cream soda at the Queen's Coronation in 1953.

Only one family in the street had a telly, a Bush with a 9-inch screen and about a dozen people crammed into the parlour, in the dark getting eye strain.

The following year I went to Goodison with my dad, and that was that.

You are a very wicked (and funny) man, Mr Abrahams.

1) Nationally; Since the Labour Party's December thrashing there has been no effective opposition to the present Government's policies or reminders to them of their seeming lack of being ahead of the curve.

2) Internationally; as far as I know, all post war major 'Flu outbreaks have stemmed from China... I can remember there being only 4 kids out of 39 in my class at one stage, during the 1956 Asian 'Flu outbreak... The world will have to find the collective clout to get them to put their own house in order – or face a replay of today's problems down the track.

Or, just like in 1918, today's Great Corona Virus Epidemic, will graduate, just like the 'Great War' did, from being a 'One Off', to WW1, one of a series.

Yes it's still there.

I would count myself as being reasonably conversant with statistical analysis and am amazed just how little critical attention has been given to the data being used to support the case for draconian intervention and how they are being analysed.

I am also totally confused by the juxtaposition of recent government actions alongside evidence-based conclusions from Public Health England (PHE) and others that there is, as yet, no evidence of 'excess mortality' in official figures denoting deaths through influenza-type diseases. Am I just misreading the weekly PHE reports?

And can anyone also explain how, in the light of all we are hearing on how to reduce the spread of and risk from the coronavirus, I today read that in response to concerns that the UK is still allowing in flights from China, Iran and Italy, a 'government spokesman' stated that "There is no evidence that interventions like closing borders or travel bans would have any effect on the spread of the infection"!

I would argue that the Government has tiptoed it's way through this crisis and alongside its mixed messaging has made things more confusing than is necessary.

Each person is potentially a biological weapon and even if they themselves don't suffer more than a mild illness they could inadvertently infect another who pays the ultimate price.

If most European countries are closing down cities, buildings etc they must have good reason to do so unless they are all risking the economic well being of their country in order to be shown as people of action?

I know that many politicians will do and say anything to hold on to power but have they overreacted in this crisis? I don't think so, in fact many underestimated the threat and acted far too slowly.

According to an Italian medic yesterday he claimed that only those with the virus that died in hospital were counted in official figures whilst those who died at home or in care homes from the virus were not included.

There is of course no puzzle -- they have been conducting more testing and in a way that minimises distortion in the results that otherwise occur if there is biased statistical sampling.

No. It's prudent.

I only have myself to blame for this ignorance but I have heard zero about testing, testing stations, testing priorities... nothing.
My wife is a community psychiatrist nurse visiting 13 people a day and is in the dark as me about testing – surely her and her colleagues should be tested?

Her usual workload was 5 a day so you can see how this has affected staffing levels.

Has anyone heard anything about testing stations or the like? My wife was due to go to Garston hospital 3 weeks ago to help out with a sort of testing crisis centre; when she arrived, she was informed it wasn't happening.

If this had been set up 3 weeks ago as intended, how much of a difference would it have made? We can only guess as to why this happened.

The periodic emergence of ‘dominant' flu viruses is due to their capability of having many variations of regions of their exterior which allow them to bind with and then be absorbed by the host cells, where they use the cells own ‘machinery' to make many more copies of themselves. It is as these copies are being made that the mutations crop up which allow the virus to be effective whilst their appearance to the host immune system has altered enough that they aren't ‘recognised' and so don't trigger a quick enough immune response.

Flu viruses aren't just replicating in humans; they have animal hosts as well, of which pigs and chickens are of particular significance. In many parts of South East Asia (China isn't actually the only place they can originate from) people, chickens and pigs live in very close proximity and this literally provides the flu with breeding grounds which are likely to come up with a variation of the virus that hasn't been around for a few years and is therefore ripe to get past immune systems and start the next annual pandemic.

Most people will retain enough residual immunity from previous infections to actually fight off that year's invader but the elderly may have weakened immune systems and the very young have underdeveloped immune systems or may not have encountered a flu virus in order to acquire the immunity in the first place.

I'm not sure what happens each year so that the flu seems to arise and spread at the same time most years (perhaps the animals are brought in for shelter at certain times, or the people lose some immunity due to other seasonal factors) but it is like the coronaviruses (SARS, MERS and now Covid-19) in that it is caused by various species being kept in close proximity transmitting mutating viruses between them until they become a threat to humanity.

You would have to change thousands of years of cultural practices / lifestyle choices. We shouldn't forget that China, and some other counties, still has a massive ‘peasant' population and their options for how they live their lives may be limited even if they had the knowledge of how these diseases are arising.

It may be that the Chinese have a greater level of immunity throughout their population due to their more frequent exposure to less lethal variants, which may be why this virus (and previous flu viruses) have had more impact outside the country they arose in.

Where I would agree with the Government is that, even without knowing who has been infected, adopting personal behaviours (good hygiene practices, social distancing and self-isolation) could work to radically slow the spread of the virus if people are bothered to apply them.

I'm no statistician, but looking at the figures over recent years for flu deaths annually, there is a lot of variation around the average. Same is true for CDC data in the US, and WHO data globally. To me, this variation is so big that if we hadn't been told that there is this new COVID-19 virus we might not have noticed anything ‘unusual' simply by looking at the current data.

I had a look at the flu figures for Italy, and the annual death toll seems to vary from 7,000 to 29,000.

Looking at data for risk-by-age, it also seems that the relative risks for COVID-19 are very similar to those for flu, with the skewness of the profile to over-65s looking pretty much the same. Unless I'm missing something.

This may explain why my wife was told the Garston set up was just abandoned? Maybe they thought it was better to wait for a more conclusive test.

I am not going to engage in points scoring on the Government's response. I'm not a Tory and I'm sure they have made mistakes but we have to go along with their plan.

Have the Labour Party said anything? Has Corbyn said anything? He is the opposition still, he is allowed to offer alternatives.

It has certainly spread quicker than the flu generally does (WHO tracks the progression of the annual flu events and is able to give our vaccine manufacturers an indication of the flu strains they need to be matching 6 to 9 months ahead) which should be some indication of the relative infectivity.

As flu is notifiable and tested for, the authorities should be able to differentiate between who is stricken by either, though I would guess they are not used to compiling and releasing the flu data as quickly as they are doing for this virus.

Just because the vulnerable groups are the same, I don't think it is as simple as just thinking that Covid-19 is simply ploughing the same furrow as this year's flu would have done.

As a result, the default is to use quantitative models that are based principally upon past evidence and research. Unfortunately these models have performed poorly in the face of recent viral outbreaks such as SARS, overstating deaths.

I'm sure you're not saying that flu deaths are more important than Covid-19 deaths.

I'm not really sure what your point is beyond those stats.

I repeat from previous posts, this isn't an argument about which is the biggest killer. We now have not just one killer, flu, but two killers.

For flu, there are on average 500,000 deaths per year globally, which seems to work out at nearly 10,000 per week on average over an entire year. This compares with about 15,000 Covid-19 deaths so far over about 6 weeks.

So, the Covid-19 expectations are theoretical, and may or may not turn out to be realised in practice, whereas the large death toll for flu is factual.

As I say, I'm no statistician, but the above information seems clear, and is readily available from the CDC, WHO, etc.

The Chinese Government was quick enough to re-educate whole swaths of the country for ideological reasons when it suited them.

Let them Re-educate for health reasons. So it might take a bit but, as somebody over there said... A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step.

What is your point? You have been posting for two days now and I still can't understand you.

Is it a conspiracy or not? And can you give us some practical solutions to making life better for everyone.

Also, your average flu just doesn't infect that much of the population because most of us already have some immunity. The experts are saying there is no natural immunity for this and so everyone is capable of catching and spreading it which is shown by its much quicker transmission around the globe. SARS and MERS are not good models because their virulence actually limited their spread.

This is not flu, nor SARS, nor MERS and nobody knows exactly how many people will end up catching it before it is wholly contained. Just because some countries have apparently been able to isolate it and deal with those outbreaks doesn't mean any of them has necessarily seen the end of this virus.

It's all about keeping the number of severe cases within the health service capacity. If any get swamped then the mortality rates will climb again. That swamping is much more likely with this new virus.

There are also the incidental / collateral deaths to factor in, where stretched health services have lost patients who may otherwise have survived. Those will not go down as Covid-19 fatalities but they would most likely not have happened in the usual flu season.

Also, just because the vulnerable group is the same, it is not proven that the fatalities are people who would have perished from the flu this year anyway. Therefore, this virus is a sudden and wholly unexpected additional strain on the health services which still threatens to tip them into catastrophe if it is not properly contained.

Do people really think that governments worldwide are just over-reacting?

Other possibilities exist; certain populations may be more vulnerable than others and the virus may not have reached them yet. The longer and further this virus spreads and multiplies the more chance there is that an even more virulent strain could evolve.

Unless those who are apparently trying to spread a message of ‘What's the fuss?' are virologists / epidemiologists and are prepared to reveal that expertise, I think they should keep schtum about their theories lest they help to undermine the efforts of those who are treating this virus as a clear and present danger.

We do need to remember we protect hundreds of thousands every year against seasonal flu with vaccines. There is no vaccine just yet for Covid-19. It is therefore far more deadly.

In terms of the science (i.e. how this virus affects people's health) there is very much overall agreement: that it can range from some people not knowing they have had the virus all the way up to those who die. And it's obviously the latter which is of direct concern.

Si explains very clearly why the comparison of flu and Covid numbers are spurious, given that Covid-19 has started later than flu this winter. It's like saying player A hasn't scored as many goals as player B this season but ignoring the fact that player A only started playing in January.

There is also agreement on the impact on our health systems, their ability to cope, and the certainty that this impact will only get worse.

So what to do about it? And that's where there's been the uncertainty, in the epidemiology, how drastic, widespread and fast to take action. With flu, we know what happens if we take certain action because it's all happened before and we have models to help us to predict. With this virus none of that is the case.

No surprise, then, that the experts haven't initially all been in agreement on what to do, when: how hard you close this down, how soon you try to flatten the curve, whether and when you ease off and then hit hard again. Add to that the political decisions to be made (where they've had to factor in impacts on the economy etc).

But since the Ferguson / Imperial College report only last week, there now seems to be much more of a consensus on the epidemiology, how and how fast this can spread, and what sorts of action to be taken. That article leaves open the question of suppression versus mitigation (whether or not the interventions are relaxed and then reapplied every few months).

And this is why (a) they are trying to flatten the curve and (b) get extra resource into the NHS.

So I totally understand the difficulties the epidemiologists and therefore politicians have been facing. We are learning as we go. There's no other way.

Thank god for the scientists. Thank god for the epidemiologists. And who would want to be a politician at the moment, having to make these life-and-death decisions?

Totally agree. Except that the people who want to be politicians are the politicians. Billy Connolly said that just the act of someone wanting to be a politician should effectively bar them from the job. I think more on moral grounds than ability but I couldn't swear to that.

Someone like Johnson, who wanted this from a very early age believes it is his birthright and destiny. It's a matter of class don't you know.

Of course death, is the ultimate price Brent, an undignified death at that, with no friends or family to surround the victims, in their final hours. Some Italians have kept family members at home even in such horrific circumstances, but despite all of this, it really is the people who are showing no signs of having this virus, (asymtomatic, I think it's called) which is the biggest thing that must be contained, because only then will death itself begin to be avoided? It's nothing to some and absolutely brutal to others.

Watching Boris yesterday, and his health minister today on Breakfast tele, my own assumption is that this is overwhelming for sensible people, never mind absolute clowns.

It should be getting through to even the dimmest lightbulbs what is coming down the line. But there's photos today of people crowding a flower market in London this morning, and a big long queue outside a Sainsburys, at least leaving a distance between themselves, which I guess is part of a result. Visitors to Snowdonia at the weekend were at record levels. Other resorts similar. Do they think it's a holiday?

I was sent a chart on LinkedIn this morning, showing the day by day cumulative deaths in Italy since their first death. Next to this is the equivalent figures for UK, but with a two week time lag. On Saturday our figure and the Italian figure two weeks ago were identical. The daily figures for the Uk, since the first death were uncannily similar to the equivalent figures in Italy, so the trend we're on, so far is the same.

Italy went through 5500 deaths, on the latest figures today.

Hopefully the distancing moves we've already made will flatten the curve, but only if the silly buggers observe them. I think we may see some pretty draconian announcements, today.

Regarding comparisons with flu, I think many people are not grasping the scale of its impact. I can understand the concerns about COVID-19, but at the same time many people talk about flu as if it's relatively benign and can be stopped with a vaccine. The annual average toll of 500,000 deaths, plus the hospitalisations, is a massive existent thing.

The flu vaccines DO NOT stop this death toll. Vaccines reduce the risks of getting flu, suffering from it, and death from it, but do not eliminate the deaths. Even if there were 100% uptake in vaccination, the death toll would, although reduced, still be of the same magnitude of hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Many people reiterate that there's a vaccine against flu, but fail to put this caveat about it not guaranteeing protection. It's very important for high-risk folks to be vaccinated, because their risk is reduced, but it is all subject to this caveat.

Perhaps the fact that people tend to forget or ignore this caveat is rooted in flu being a hazard that we're so familiar with. Perhaps its familiarity has bred some complacency about it.

In this respect, I wonder if this whole debate about what measures to take against COVID-19, about whether our government has been taking the best approach or not, will cause a wider consideration of whether in fact more could reasonably be done to protect vulnerable groups against flu and its habitually large death toll.

I believe like the mass gathering on Bondi beach before Australia went into a curfew, Italy likewise arranged pizza parties for the whole family. They say ignorance is bliss... well, not on this occasion. This morning, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the army had been working over the weekend to make sure front line NHS got all the protective clothing they need. Yet at dinnertime, a front line doctor in the NHS is still saying they haven't got the protective clothing they need.

As pictures showed at the weekend, nothing changed, morons still gathering in large numbers, you might as well arm them with guns as they don't seem to comprehend... or they don't want to, which is much worse.

It may well be too late to avert the catastrophe that has happened in Italy, fatalities far out stripping the numbers they had in China. The country needs to go into lockdown not tomorrow, but today, stop all movement except of essential staff. Make sure NHS frontline staff have the correct protective equipment, otherwise they will be dying trying to take care of us.

Brilliant post mate.

Stan,

They haven't given the best leadership at this troubled time.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK

There is no such vaccination for Covid-19 at the moment, so there is nothing to directly combat and contain its impact.

That is not to say that with better infrastructure and preparedness that ALL nations could have taken steps to prevent the chaos we are now seeing.

I come back once again to South Korea, on the doorstep of China where this all started. They haven't got 'lucky' in getting on top of Covid-19. They planned for it years ago. How so?

Following an outbreak of Mers in 2015, when 'only' 36 people died in the country - placing them second globally behind Saudi Arabia in that particular pandemic - they invested in and legislated for future similar crisis.

Rather than continue to cut budgets and services to social welfare and public health programs, resulting in under-staffed, under-resourced and overwhelmed services as many Governments have done, South Korea did the inverse.

They reassessed their approach to infectious diseases and its Centres for Disease Control set up a special department to prepare for the worst.

Korean Laws on managing and publicly sharing information on patients with infectious diseases changed significantly after Mers 2015.

The government even have an app with phone alerts telling people if they are in the vicinity of (in this case) someone actively carrying Covid-19.

Korea is testing 20,000 people every day for the virus. That translates to more people per capita than anywhere else in the world.

They make it EASY for people to get tested. They have a network of public and private laboratories, plus scores of drive-through centres, where people displaying symptoms can get tested.

South Korea is not out of the woods yet. But they, more than probably any another country in the world, were well primed to vastly reduce the damaging impact of Covid-19 on its population, industry and finances.

Good governance, good planning and good implementation. Not being reactionary and stumbling on a weekly-daily-hourly basis.

The other consideration I mentioned, of whether enough has been done to protect people from flu, would take place in the context of whether measures for protection have been taken as far as is ‘reasonably practicable'. This should account for the reliability of each measure, vaccines included.

I don't quite understand why you focus on that when the bulk of my post is more concerned with highlighting that, even without any sort of Covid-19 vaccine, one nation - South Korea - is so much more on top of this than any other.

Due to, as I wrote, good governance, good planning and good implementation. Not being reactionary and stumbling on a weekly-daily-hourly basis.

Clearly then there exists ways to combat and contain the virus without the need of any cure-all wonder drug.

That's my perspective. The focus of your last couple of posts looks elsewhere.

I made no 'mistake' because the primary focus of my post was not on the effectiveness, reliability or otherwise of the long-standing 'flu vaccine.

That's YOUR focus.

My posts today have quite clearly been primarily focused on highlighting that there are effective ways and means to combat Covid-19 WITHOUT any vaccine whatsoever.

And once again Stan, with respect, I am not arguing any point whatsover.

Just sharing what I've read.

Take it or leave it.

Each to their own.

The level of carbon pollution in the atmosphere is also falling pretty fast too. It shows that it can be done. Albeit in dreadful circumstances.

Jay, could you do the honours again please?

How do you combat Covid-19 with no vaccine whatsoever?

It is because it is a best judgement, from monitoring of the early stages of each annual flu epidemic, to try to match the current strain's characteristics from a bank of historic A and B strains. It is never likely to be 100% efficacious, not least because the flu virus can, and will, mutate as it spreads.

Not all of the stock strains induce the same level of immune response and individuals will have a unique response, so the protection will be variable, but it is undoubted that vaccination will provide some level of protection for a proportion of those who are inoculated.

Your posts seem to have the tone of ‘Why are we so concerned about this virus when so many die from the flu vaccine every year anyway?' and you seem to be reckoning that the likely fatalities from the current pandemic will fall short of or just about match a typical annual flu.

My Mum has the flu jab and hasn't suffered from it as long as I can remember. If she ends up as one of the unfortunates because she ends up needing care when the hospitals are swamped, do you mind if I pay you a visit and explain the difference to you then?

There is an annual battle against flu that most of us can't really participate in; there is a current call to arms against this novel threat which really rests on people taking some personal responsibility for public health for a limited amount of time. Why are you constantly questioning if this response is merited if you cannot be sure it isn't?

Read my post @ 380 on how South Korea is successfully doing just that.

Gissa clue to the title of the article and I'll oblige.

There's quite a few to choose from, matey!!!

Covid-19 UK and Italy compared. Or something like that.

It's near the top of the page.

Link

Strikingly similar timeline graphs between Italy and UK and the measures taken by the respective governments, if so.

President Jair Bolsonaro sees the scaremongering as a political and media plot to undermine his administration.

Link

Bolsonaro has a Brazilian US-based 'internet influencer' with millions of followers (a self-proclaimed astrologist, no less. Heavy duty scientist, then...) who claimed this weekend that Covid-19 is a complete hoax; that no-one has died from it; that no single inquest has been performed anywhere in the world to confirm death by Covid-19. And people lap it up and believe it.

Makes Johnson and his cabinet appear enlightened.

Ours will still rise, whether at the same rate as Italy in the last couple of weeks, or flatter, because of the ever more stringent methods adopted and demographic differences remains to be seen. That could take a couple of weeks yet

I've also questioned, several times, the handling of the situation by our government, with respect to a need for a firmer and more coherent policy, as opposed to an approach of the UK government that has seemed laissez-faire and more likely to induce the selfish behaviours we've seen from sections of the public.

The flu issue is important because it alone stretches NHS resources, and Covid-19 adds to it, and context is needed. I've focused on the unreliability of flu vaccines because quite a few posters have basically said that flu isn't as bad as Covid-19 because there's a vaccine for flu but not for Covid-19.

All I can say is, go and find my posts if you want further details.

Interesting, I think they are managing the virus, not combatting it, which is the best course of action until we have a vaccine. You are right: we should be following South Korea's model because I don't think this will be a one-off.

And as you say that, I'm just hearing that Hong Kong now has a re-emergence of the virus – from people travelling into the region.

It's not that flu awareness isn't important but it's just not the priority at the moment. We don't have spreaders of the flu walking around without a care in the world because if you do catch the flu (not man-flu, heavy cold or whatever) it knocks you off your feet and you become self-isolating anyway. Most of the people you could have contact with wouldn't catch the flu anyway, which is not the case with Covid-19.

The flu vaccine is made available to all those who would most benefit from avoiding infection; harping on about potentially poor efficacy is only likely to make less people bother to have the jab which would most likely make the situation worse.

Had they decided to go heavy-handed and in a more decisive manner, it's entirely possible it would have induced hysteria and panic on a scale above what we've already seen. Do even we have enough police and army to enforce those styles of measures? They should be used to help people – not enforce a quarantine which we should be quite capable as a population of observing.

They've taken a stepped approach to nudge and guide people to take the measures themselves without being forced. I think that's the right way, far better you choose to limit your own freedoms rather than having them wrestled from you, right? It's now not a surprise that we are possibly only hours away from stricter measures.

It's all very sad, I'm extremely anxious despite observing all of the measures. I hope everyone is hanging in there. I veer from sober reflection to the darkest of humour about the whole thing, especially with the dope in the Whitehouse.

John 402: The UK government has introduced measures, and is considering further ones, but arguably could have done so sooner, preferably a few weeks ago. It was only a week last Wednesday that a Champions League game was allowed to go ahead at Anfield, with an influx of thousands of Spaniards from the epicentre of the Spanish outbreak. 'Proportionality' is key here, which means sensible, practical and timely measures that are likely to be effective.

I'd be happy to join you in raising the awareness of the impact of flu once we've dealt with this novel pandemic.

On Sunday my wife and I had lunch with two of my daughters, granddaughter, grandson, and son in law - a weekly occurrence.

My grandson (20) told me he was very concerned about this virus so I told him it appears that it doesn't seem to be as dangerous for most young people. Later on when I was alone for a short while with my son in law he told me that my grandson was not so concerned for himself but his nan and his grandad.

The state of Victoria (in Oz) is almost in total lockdown and will probably go into full lockdown in the next day or two. This made me realise that at best I won't be able to give any of them a hug for quite some time.

The internet and telephone is going to be vital for staying in touch with them - with so many people working from home here it is starting to creak.

So from being a sceptic it is for me now a time to take stock of what really matters in my life. I can tell you, my wife and I will be taking this self isolation caper really seriously.

Take care lads and lasses - every one of you.

Si@404: There's a related important point about COVID-19 for which I believe discussing the reliability of the flu vaccine in very valid. There's no vaccine for COVID-19, and all of us obviously hope for one. But it's vital to realise that any successful vaccine could well have less than 100% reliability. Knowing this to be the case is very important, because it reminds us that having a vaccine should not cause us to relax our vigilance with respect to ensuring other control measures against the virus.

Discussing the unreliability of the flu virus is important here, because it helps do precisely this of having a reality check that we're unlikely to be talking about a panacea 'wonder drug', which helps us maintain a cautionary approach to measures of control (measures to reduce risk) against COVID-19 going forward. What Jay@380 has said underlines this point about control measures other than a vaccine.