Regression to the mean haunts Everton

(Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

That three-week break back in late March and early April looks more and more like it could have been the death knell for Everton’s European ambitions this season.

But it didn’t have to be.

Momentum from the dominant 3-0 victory over Chelsea seemed to ebb away, and Everton have looked rusty since returning to action on 12 April.

But the other teams have had to deal with it too, so there’s no excuse.

The Comeback and then the Climbdown

On Monday, Everton demonstrated that they still have it in them. They stuck in the game against Manchester City and then in the second half, and this is no hyperbole, absolutely deserved to go on and win that match.

That they didn’t is down to a combination of factors. First off, poor defending. Michael Keane and James Tarkowski were shambolic for Erling Haaland’s goal, which came straight from the restart after Thierno Barry had made it 3-1, when Man City’s players were on the floor and staring abjectly at the heavens.

That goal cut the celebratory mood and instead led to nervousness, which carried over into an inexplicably long period of stoppage time... and we all know what happened then.

There were other factors, too though. Bad luck and dreadful officiating played their part.

Poor decision-making from Carlos Alcaraz, who showed why he is so far away from a player like Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall when it comes to composure on the ball. Poor finishing from Iliman Ndiaye, who missed several golden chances.

Dreadful officiating comes into play when the referee and VAR somehow determine that, at 3-2 up, Everton shouldn’t have been awarded a penalty for a blatant foul on Merlin öhl by Bernardo Silva.

Regression

Perhaps the biggest reason of all, though, is regression.

Opta posted this stat on X: Everton are the first team in Premier League history to concede a result-altering goal in the 90th minute or later in three consecutive matches.

And while that is a horrific record to have, the data Gods do sometimes have a way of showing their hand.

Teams over- and under-perform their underlying metrics across the course of a campaign. Sometimes, they manage to get through the entire season without it levelling out. But eventually, usually, it catches up with you somewhat.

And this is what we’re starting to see now.

According to Opta Analyst, Everton have accrued 40.2 ‘expected points’. Essentially, their underlying metrics suggest they should be hovering around 14th — some 12 points off the Top 6.

But these numbers must always be taken into context. Chelsea, for example, have amassed 56.4 expected points, which is the third-best in the league, and there is no way Chelsea have been the third-best team this season.

But perhaps the biggest mark of Everton’s overperformance comes when looking at the expected Goals Against (xGA) figure.

Everton have conceded 41 times from 50.5 xGA. That 9.5 overperformance is the biggest in the Premier League, ahead of Man City’s 7.5. So the Toffees have not really been brilliant defensively when it comes to keeping it tight, but have managed to concede fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they have given up.

Ultimately though, when regression strikes, you can get results like Monday, or against West Ham and Liverpool. When you’re on the wrong end of the fine margins.

Doku the Danger Man

Jeremy Doku had very little right to score either of the goals he did, but he is a quality player and turned low xG chances into pinpoint finishes of the highest calibre. 

The irony is, Everton finished Monday’s match with 2.72 xG, their second-highest mark of the season, behind Bournemouth at home in February. The Toffees lost that one.

In fact, Everton also won the ‘xG battle’ against West Ham, as well.

Everton have been getting better going forward as the season has gone on. From that Bournemouth game onwards, David Moyes’s men have created the higher xG in 6 of 10 matches. 

But then going the other way, the regression has struck — the chances Everton’s defence have given up have started to bite them, whereas earlier in the campaign they were getting away with it.

Re-living it when I close my eyes, that Doku goal might just have floored me. It certainly caused a sleepless night.

Taking a step back, this kind of near-miss is much easier to deal with than the existential dread that came when results would go against Everton in the relegation battles of years gone by, but it still hurts, even if in just a different way.

Everton deserved to get the points for that second-half performance — it was a display worthy of propelling them right back to the front of the European race. 

They are still not out of it, which makes it worse in a way, as the hope remains, but it’s really beginning to feel like a case of what might have been... and, when all is said and done, regression to the mean is possibly what’s going to prove ever so costly.

All stats from Opta Analyst

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