Everton have 'clarity of costs' with Laing O'Rourke agreement

I'll keep it simple. Get this wretched season over the line and the future is bright. The future is blue. Take the city and dominate literally from the banks of the Royal Blue Mersey.

With interest rates only heading one way as well as the cost of materials it'll be a challenge. The uncertainty over our Premier League status is in our own hands. The attractiveness of a long term investment loan/bond to fund the build is one for Moshiri and Co.

1. 'greater certainty as to the costs...'. You cannot have greater or lesser certainty; certainty is an absolute, you either are certain or you are not. Does this mean that there was formerly NO certainty as to the costs?!

2. 'work will continue apace...'. NOT work will continue to finality or to fruition. Work can 'continue apace' but still fall well short of the target!

3. 'We have renewed clarity' over the costs. Again, you either have clarity or you don't. 'Renewed' implies restated, the same as before: Why? To say 'We now have clarity, which we did not have before' makes sense - 'renewed' clarity does not.

4. 'That clarity is in line with our budget and cost planning...' These words sent a shudder down my spine. Remember, this is the 'renewed' clarity. Stripping away the 'Management-speak' I believe this means: 'We're broke, therefore the NEW clarity is in line with our NEW [i.e. vastly reduced] budget and our NEW [i.e. increasingly desperate] cost planning.

As I say, I may be reading far too much into this; but I think the words actually mean something quite different to that which they appear to mean.

Love to know what Paul the Esk thinks about this?

Saying the latest cost figures are in line with the budget doesn't mean the funds are all in place. A carefully worded statement.

"I think the words actually mean something quite different to that which they appear to mean."

So they "appear" to mean one thing to you. But they also appear to mean something different! Not total clarity on that?

It's getting built.

Why the cynicism?

There are lots of questions regarding Farhad Moshiri's handling of the club but this isn't one of them. He deserves nothing but credit for the commitment he has shown and desire to give us a world class stadium.

“ A main construction contract, signed by both parties, will see Laing O'Rourke complete construction of the Club's new 52,888-capacity waterfront stadium, while also providing Everton with greater certainty as to the cost of the remaining stages of the project.”

Surely to say this they must have the finance arranged and it is not dependent on which League we are in?

They've locked in build costs but, as expected material prices go up, they'll just cut back on finishing and workmanship getting cheaper material.

I also noticed that in her letter Denise said that she is also excited that the club will announce in the next few months a new financial package for the club. So I guess they have got on board new shirt Sponsors to replace Cazoo and maybe also a sleeve sponsor to replace the Angry Bird sponsorship that expired last season.

So in these uncertain times for our club a little bit of positivity.

Now more likely 5% interest

Is this what you call success Bill?

Maybe it's in place but has there been any statement that all of the funding is in place and guaranteed? And is it contingent on Everton's Premier League status?

No wonder our brilliant??? local newspaper, the Liverpool Echo, aren't carrying the stadium news as the main story about Everton. Instead, they are running a story about the new city commissioners are investigating into who proposed the possible EFC loan fees. EFC turned down this offer over 12 months back.

This is a local council issue and nothing to do with EFC, no wonder Blues in this City hold this rag in such contempt.

It must be heartbreaking and very stressful for her in these hard times for her. Thank God she has Billy Boy looking after her interests. What a pair they make always seeking the best for Everton FC and us fans!!!

All speculation and negativity with the blue fan base, I think more of the keyboard warriors need to get out of the house a bit more and lighten up.

No Armchairs, Sofas, Settees etc! :-)

"Could have borrowed the money at 1% interest. Now more likely 5% interest. Is this what you call success Bill?"

It's not your money, Tony, so relax.

Of course the issue will be paying it back and relegation remains the main issue for the future sustainability of the club.

There will already be a significant amount of material purchased because if it wasn't, the job would soon come to a standstill. This is probably why Laing O'Rourke could happily sign the contract.

Also, I believe now that this contract is signed, the financing from JP Morgan or whoever will follow because the main risk has been eliminated.

For those criticising the running of the club, the playing side is one thing, but on the stadium, I can only see positives and it being a very well-run project.

Those providing the financing would want to know in advance, with some degree of certainty, what it is going to cost. The "clarity on cost" statement may be more about securing the funding.

We don't know what conditions are attached to the building contract. It could all be contingent on finance being provided.

Come 2024, we will be dominating the skyline of our city whilst they are shoehorned into the streets of Anfield. Our city, our Royal Blue waterfront.

I will still visit the Arkles out of respect for my Grandfather even if I do so with contempt for the regulars.

Our club, our city. They are the tourist attraction.

Bill's influence stands proud! No wonder we are a fucking laughing stock!

The contract with Laing cannot be a fixed cost because of the inherent risks, but it can give a reasonable expectation of the most likely outcome which, as work progresses, reduces in risk. Leeway and contingency narrows as we get closer to completion, so I agree, this "clarity " is sensible planning and a basic requirement set in place before confirming loan details.

P.S. just a minor edit, additional thought, stepping back a little, what was the point of the email? Just letting us know that they are doing what they should be doing? That's hardly news... (Mind you, thinking about it, given the recent financial decision-making record of the board, it probably is newsworthy!)

News flash! We are doing our job...

The costs may well be acceptable at this time and "Clarified" as our sales girl of the month puts it, but should cost take an upward trend, it won't be Laing O'Rourke who volunteers to foot the bill and I would be very surprised if they've agreed to a fixed cost project. What happens to her clarity document then?

To sum up we don't yet have the funds to build the thing, but we do have a document that says come on down "the price is right" and there's Brucie bonus if we can build it now, the bonus being today's prices, but they could rocket tomorrow if we don't build it today!

Somebody give her a bucket and spade so she can play about in our marvellous new sand pit.

I don't believe that Denise Barret-Baxendale is looking for a new job, this article she has given is part of her present position.

"26 July 2019: Denise Barret-Baxendale, will oversee the work of Stadium Development Director Colin Chong, and take responsibility for the new Stadium Project, including the delivery of the community-led legacy at Goodison Park."

Seems for once she may be doing something right.

I hope you don't take my admiration of your post as bad news given my adversity with all things Kenwright and his L'il Miss Dynamite as a follow-through, but the comments you and a few others have made cause me to be highly sceptical of the lass – even if she truly believes in the provenance of what she said.

Outside of her life of Riley in Everton's boardroom, and further charity to others beyond, she has about as much football and finance credibility as Nero had to fire extinguishing.

This is not the first contract that Lang O'Rourke have negotiated on a project that takes a number of years to complete, so I imagine they have a number of clauses in to cover any increases that the club has agreed to.

Let's be thankful that we are getting a brand new modern stadium and hope we can get a great team to play in it.

But someone managed to get the Premier League to accept that the Covid pandemic had an effect on Everton breaching FFP rules and were able to curtail the effect of sanctions on the club. The result is Everton live to fight another day, probably in the Premier League, and the stadium project has not beeen affected, and looks like it will be completed.

Who is responsible for all this happening?

There is a lady in New Zealand from Scotland Road, comes on here with bucket loads of sense who would show her how to do the job, a proper job, but doubt she would work with or stomach Kenwright.

I hope you are keeping okay Christine!!

There’s a common denominator, let’s see where the events and announcements these last few days, take the pendulum for Everton FC.

John Ebbrell, will be able now to have some freedom with the U23s, and I'm sure the catering managers, will be pleased at Finch Farm and Goodison Park, that Rhino is looking for a fresh grazing ground.

I’m sure the U23s are at Goodison, this Friday, if so a good chance to look at new set up.

Good luck to Matty Mallon, if his move to Blackburn is true, as he’s stood out and worked hard after injury.

Like some others, in that team, all considered, it will be interesting to see who opts to resign, stall and potentially leave the chance for other clubs to come in.

UTFT!

Who cares what he thinks, he's the most anti-Everton Evertonian on the planet. The man's a loon who claims to know more than the national and local press. Pretty much everything he says is going to happen doesn't happen. He's a melon.

Is it Bill Kenwright or Bill Gates? Either way, it seems Zuckerberg and Kenwright are probably in this together.

Sometimes, just sometimes, we can take a story on face value and act like football fans, sports fans even – not accountants or conspiracy theorists.

Haha... whilst I may have the experience of running multinationals at a senior level, it's not the full requirements needed to run this once mighty club! In years gone by, I would have done it for nothing for a chance to do so, but life goes on! And you're right too, I could never support Bill Kenwright – Evertonian or not (not bitter, just my principles).

I think she is a competent executive, but her specialities are not running a football club. I think Everton in the Community is a fabulous initiative and well run from what I can see. But I think the running of a club with the ambition, finances and day-to-day operations are something else where experience is vital. But that is a failing of the board and specifically of its chairman, not solely the responsibility of DBB as it was the same under Elstone.

Keeping busy, Dave, trying not to think of football, painting, decorating, planning, gardening and wondering how I ended up here... again lol... it has a certain pull does New Zealand...

To me the reason for the announcement is obvious. Everton just confirmed a three-year loss of £372 million, and our owner's former patron was sanctioned by the West. That immediately triggered a storm of speculation, like some of the more clueless comments above, that the stadium was doomed. So DBB put out the statement. Elementary.

Here's the Guardian article on the contract: Everton sign contract to complete new stadium construction

"The new 52,888-capacity stadium on Liverpool's waterfront is expected to cost in the region of £500m and, despite rising prices throughout the construction industry, the contract gives Everton greater financial certainty over the remaining stages of the build."

Makes sense to me, but then I'm not "someone who works in the building industry".

“Our owner made a commitment to deliver a new stadium for Everton, and he meant it. He will finish what he started.”

This seems to pour cold water on the idea he might be looking to sell up… if he's staying on, I only hope someone explains FFP rules to him so that he doesn't take us even further into the financial mire… but given his day job is as an accountant, I'm sure he's got this covered. 😬

Nicholas #9 - just for argument sake:

Certainty and clarity are binary, but only at points in time. I might be certain of something today but not tomorrow, and the same with clarity. So renewing either is positive but really doesn't tell us much at all!

It's going to be interesting to see what happens this summer.

For what it's worth, I'm certain you have this quite wrong over degrees of certainty. Anything to do with future projection has degrees of certainty or uncertainty associated with it, from stadium costs to being struck by an asteriod, to being relegated.

Let's take that last one: at the moment there is a possibility that Everton will be relegated. In terms of 'certainty', it's not 100% but it's not Zero% either – it's somewhere in-between. And as Lewis @67 says, it is subject to change, not every day but as each set of matches affecting the lower places are played.

It seems the more widely reported £500M now has much-increased certainty which (if true) would be fantastic. I have to admit I find that really surprising in these hugely uncertain times, with the highest rates of inflation we have seen in 30 years, and a lot more still coming down the pipeline while construction forges ahead.

It's like almost every episode of Grand Designs – they say they absolutely have to complete the build within budget… but they hardly ever do.

''Work on the 52,888-capacity waterfront stadium started in the summer of 2021 and is scheduled to be completed after the start of the 2024-25 campaign. That will leave Everton officials with a decision on whether to leave their present home of Goodison Park mid-season.

The Everton owner, Farhad Moshiri, is committed to the project even in the event of relegation from the Premier League. The club are in 17th position, four points above the cut-off, and have already underwritten some of the funding for the project.

The club are in the process of completing further funding options with the private sector.''

£505M!!! – it's already gone up in price! If it continues at this rate – 1% per day – we're royally fucked!

If it offers any comfort, my Garden job just cost me £350 more than I got quoted last month because the price of slabs has gone up!!

My garden woes matter not. The stadium is happening and long-term, that's what matters.

Best news is that I see that Leicester are not only playing tonight but also on Sunday afternoon. Roll on Wednesday.

I do think Denise Barrett-Baxendale is one of the worst culprits for prosaic nonsense management-speak in the business... every time she opens her mouth it seems. However, it's good to get some clarity.

In line with some other posters, though, it does worry me that, if the costs are ‘locked in', will this now be done on the cheap? This stadium is going to be buffeted by all weathers every day. Surely the best quality materials and specs are essential? Let's hope corners are not cut.

Your character assassination of Paul th Esk is a bit Trumpesque, mate. I don't think he's claimed to be Mystic Meg.

If you read his posts, about 80% of the data is public knowledge and the rest is what seems like educated guesses based on comparable data from other clubs.

The bit where he makes suppositions is when he says our financial plan isn't viable. And he's been proved right with multiple bail-out cash injections from Moshiri and the publicly acknowledged fact the club are “working with the Premier League” to avoid sanctions on our Profitability and Sustainability issues.

Do his articles fill me with joy? No... but that is because he is talking about finance – not 'cause he is an “anti-Everton loon”.

As it's a Design and Build contract, it will be Lump Sum Turnkey and there may be some clauses for material price escalations, or not; usually not, so the contractor takes the risk.

Again nothing unusual in that, but the delay in signing may be due to T&C negotiations on escalations or substituting specification changes, or due to securing finances. The club are unlikely to tell us.

On the whole, it looks encouraging that we have got a fixed-price contract* which would also mean finance is in place.

* This doesn't mean the cost cannot increase though!

Denise's communication is carefully worded to make something look far more positive than it may be... could it be because the season ticket renewal deadline is not too far away?

I hope it is built for the start of the 2024-25 season; I hope the costs don't impinge too much on the necessary re-build of the first-team squad.

But in the closing paragraphs of Denise's email, I see some issues: jam tomorrow or in the future, but some pain in the near term?

And, on the subject of commercial partnerships, we will have some exciting news to share in the coming months. We have strengthened our commercial team – and put in place a new structure. Our team here in Liverpool, as well as our staff in offices in London and the United States, have been working diligently to ensure we turn challenges into opportunities.

The team has been operating in a dynamic and determined way to identify and secure new partnerships. In trying times, that also means acknowledging a need to be pragmatic in order to serve the Club as best we can...

I did tell you that I was an old cynic.

However, it relies on the club finding half a billion pounds... with an unknown amount of that being loans. A pity that, despite this 'renewed clarity', we still don't know how much the club (not Moshiri) is looking to borrow, from whom, or at what rate of interest.

And I am left curious by this phrase in DBB's statement: "In trying times, that also means acknowledging a need to be pragmatic in order to serve the Club as best we can."

What might be this pragmatism? A partnership or sponsorship with a less than ideal company?

Of course, we could get more clarity if we could have an AGM where we could ask such questions. But we may have had the last one in the history of EFC.

Next, I must offer a word in support of Paul the Esk. I'm very grateful to him for analysing all those dry figures and offering his thoughts. What he says isn't what we might want to hear. And I am sure he would love to paint a brighter picture. Sadly, however, the facts don't lend themselves to such.

Finally, surely a funding deal for the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock – and hence any further significant work – should be on hold until it is known what league we will be in next season.

I always thought that, if we had gone down in 94 or 98, it was highly likely we would quickly be back up. But the football world has changed. Now the Championship is like a swamp.

And to proceed with stadium construction after relegation could be running the risk of another Nou Mestalla. (Work started on a new stadium for Valencia in 2007, a large concrete frame was built, money ran out in 2009, and there it stands today…)

And if we do stay up, I still see the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock as a gamble. But I'll save that for another time.
UTFT.

I agree with your assessment of Denise Barrett-Baxendale's email. She appears to say a lot without saying very much at all.

Greater clarity achieved, while releasing no actual figures apart from somehow the cost will not rise above the original £500M, despite the substantial hikes in material and construction costs of recent times?

That alone may suggest one of two things: the original costs were either grossly exaggerated (or included a substantial contingency or whole-project costs, as is often the case with stadium projects), or that some severe value-engineering, cost-cutting or rationalisation is taking place in the name of "pragmatism". It will be interesting to see how that translates itself in the next phases and onwards to completion.

You're right, the Valencia example should be a stark reminder to everyone. As you say, we still have no idea what the actual loan deal is and how it will all affect our parlous financial state going forward. Even more so if (god forbid) that trap door opens!!

In some ways the message has all the hallmarks of a 2022 version of the infamous: "Don't worry, the money is ring-fenced" statement. The main difference being of course, currently there is no reason for that not to be the case. Moshiri has the readies to push this over the line under his own steam, but the issue is if and how that is then loaded onto the club.

Given those recently released financial performance figures, his further required injections of cash and conversion of debt to equity etc, it really isn't that clear (to this financial simpleton) where any substantial additional debt fits.

I also agree wholeheartedly with your AGM point. A re-run of the same tactic used last time our dealings and financial state came under great scrutiny.

All of Denise's statements are the same. They are more Public Announcement and Public Relations statements with no clarity, full of optimism and phases like 'clarity of costs' without substance. They are never going to be actual Chief Executive type statements, where she will actually answer questions.

What you have deduced is closer to the truth, but Evertonians live in the world of Premier League survival, a new dawn, and a turnaround in fortunes; unfortunately so do those that run Everton. Substance gets lost as a result and even I welcome any new statements of progress in the stadium, though I do have doubts.

Yes we need a new stadium but it will be a hollow home ground should we be hosting and getting beat in the championship.