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Looking ahead

Like, I'm sure, many of us, I've been fairly focused on the derby over the last couple of weeks, to point where this morning, I actually had no idea who our next game was against.

I duly had a look at the fixtures ahead and its reminded me of what a crucial time we've got coming up. To save you reaching for your favourite link, here's the next four:

Fulham (a)
Sunderland (h)
Reading (a)
Norwich (h)

Incidentally these are all on consecutive Saturday's throughout November, a rarity in our season so far with its near 50% rate of having been altered for TV coverage. The main point though, is that these four, and the three that follow it (in the space of ten days) represent two very different sorts of tests that will tell us a lot about where we really stand.

These four are all against teams below us in the table, who have consistently finished below us in the table, and who we would expect to beat. This brings with it the test of being favourites, overcoming opponents who may set out to avoid defeat, and living up to high expectations. This is a pressure we haven't often put on ourselves, preferring to fight under and underdogs banner, and last season seemed to buckle under with some underwhelming home results against poor teams. To take 10 or even 12 points from these fixtures is not unthinkable, and some would argue necessary if we are serious about a push into 4th place.

We follow these four with:

Arsenal (h)
Man City (a)
Tottenham (h)

(the Arsenal game being midweek between Norwich and City). Clearly this is a much tougher period with City being champions and the two North London clubs being currently adjacent to us in the table. You might even include the next fixture, Stoke away, in this more difficult run.

Quite apart from it being a significant chunk of the season in itself, these two opposite kinds of runs will be a rather stark barometer of what we can seriously expect come May. I'd venture that if we can take 15pts from a possible 21, then we're well on the way to a significantly realistic chance of breaking into that top four. Any less than 12 and we might have to accept that 6th or 7th is as good as its ever going to be.

What should we realistically expect from these games, and how much will it tell us about where we will be in May?

Mike Allison, Posted 29/10/2012 at

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Reader Comments

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James Martin
229 Posted 30/10/2012 at 00:37:59

You can never predict anything in these sort of runs. We could easily beat Fulham away then lose a frustrating 1-0 at home to Sunderland. Sometimes our best form has come when the big games have been at home for us whilst we've struggled through 'easy' periods.

Who knows what will happen? Who knows what quirk of fate could befall us between now and then? If we get Pienaar, Mirallas and Gibson back, we could beat the lot. If we lost Osman or Jelavic tomorrow we could easily drop a lot of points.

We're due a break from the injuries and we're due a bit of luck (ironic I know but surely not every deflection this season is going to fly in our net, eventually one of them has to go back out or at least to the keeper). If this happens then there's no limit to what we can do but I don't think anyone should be counting three points at Craven Cottage yet, surely our collective memory isn't that short.

Ray Roche
250 Posted 30/10/2012 at 07:34:37

Out of the 9 games we've played only 3 have been against teams in the top half of the table. And we've taken 3 out of the last 9 points, two of these games were against QPR and Wigan, teams we would have all expected to beat, judging by the posts on Toffeeweb. Take nothing for granted.

Shane Corcoran
251 Posted 30/10/2012 at 07:45:21

Mmmm, I'd swear I posted on this thread yesterday? Lyndon? Michael?

Sam Morrison
270 Posted 30/10/2012 at 09:42:00

sorry to go backwards on 'looking ahead', but Gerrard has been bleating that Liverpool were the only team 'trying to play football'. The Guardian counters:

"the match statistics do not support Gerrard's assessment. Everton enjoyed more possession than Liverpool (56.2% to 43.8%), made more passes (400 to 314), had greater passing accuracy (78.5% to 76.8%) and played proportionally fewer long passes (13.8% to 14.6%)."

I understand him being frustrated about the disallowed goal but this crap is just sour grapes

Sam Morrison
271 Posted 30/10/2012 at 09:43:42

sorry I've just seen this is from yesterday so it's probably on a thread somewhere already...

Peter Mills
276 Posted 30/10/2012 at 09:55:12

Sam#270, I wouldn't worry too much about Stevie, he's a little tired and emotional after that lung-busting run and slide he put in in the last minute.

David Hallwood
281 Posted 30/10/2012 at 10:54:52

Ah but Peter(#276) when the DJ beater compares us to Stoke that's when I take exception; a horrible nasty twisted bitter piece of shit.

Sam Morrison
282 Posted 30/10/2012 at 10:58:40

As for the OP Mike, my own long-held reservation about Moyes is he likes the odds being against him (hence our continued struggles against Liverpool, despite having a better team on paper over the last 18 months). The first month of this season that seemed to have changed to a merited confidence, over the last four weeks it's been slightly more nervy... so as for what to expect... who fuckin' knows?

Sam Hoare
283 Posted 30/10/2012 at 11:20:39

We could really do with Gibson back. Wasn't he meant to be out for 4-5 weeks. I'm sure its already been 7-8.

We also need to halt the draws. All very well being unbeaten but a win and a loss is worth more than two draws. Fulham away is a tough one but we really should win the 3 other games if we have any top 4 aspirations. We should also be looking to beat anyone who comes to Goodison which definitely includes the likes of Arsenal and tottenham.

John Crook
285 Posted 30/10/2012 at 11:40:33

Our record against Sunderland is excellent. Fulham away has improved over the last 3 or 4 seasons with 2 wins and a draw (before that the record there was the exact opposite of over home dominance over them). 3 points at Fulham and I think confidence levels will be improved.

Should be 12 points over the next 4 games if the defence can tighten up. I can see us not scoring in any game now, After all we are the most attacking team in Europe ahead of Real Madrid... hmm I wonder if Stoke City come close to that stat, Stevie G???

Andy Meighan
286 Posted 30/10/2012 at 11:50:04

That crease-headed fucker's comments about us being like Stoke... Wouldn't have seen the light of the day if the slimy rat faced Cilla Black's goal would have stood. Little bit of sour grapes there, Stevie lar... now he knows what we've had to put up with from referees in derby games for centuries, the bitter twisted twat.

He should have got on with trying to play football instead of trying to referee the game What a sad vile species of people them red cunts are... Sorry for the language but them comments have made my blood boil.

Kevin Tully
292 Posted 30/10/2012 at 12:54:21

Wonderful - F365 have posted a link to a montage of all Gerrard's dives.

http://www.football365.com/mediawatch/8210772/Mediawatch

What a fuckin' idiot, did he think no-one would notice he is a cheating c**t ?

David Nicholls
308 Posted 30/10/2012 at 13:33:36

I want us to be 'flat track bully's'. We seem to mix it up pretty well with the big boys these days when at home. You get 3 points for a win regardless of who we play so 3 points at home to Norwich are vital. We absolutely battered Sunderland at their place in the cup then strolled to a comfortable victory a few weeks later in the league but I expect they will be a tougher prospect with the addition of Johnson and Fletcher but we should still have enough to take 3 points. Fulham are dangerous on their own patch so I'd take a point. As for Reading, we surely owe them one after one of the worst home displays in recent memory in the FA Cup game.
10 points from the next four games would be very nice.

Karl Masters
364 Posted 30/10/2012 at 16:21:38

Interesting post, Mike. I would be happy with four wins, two draws and one loss in that seven game run you mention, but another pointer is our results against these teams last season, which if repeated would bring us thirteen points if you substitute Blackburn for Reading.

Really, we just have to keep up the form we have shown since January 31 when last season turned around with the Man City performance.

However, one game at a time should be the motto and Saturday,'s game at free scoring Fulham will be tough as one thing we are not doing too well just now is defending.

Tom Bowers
366 Posted 30/10/2012 at 16:33:23

On the form against Manure and the Swans, we should pick up lots of points in these upcoming games. However, nothing is written in stone and much depends on who is available.

Certainly Mirallas is a key player and does well when linking with Jela but he may miss the next game. Neville is getting slower and more mistake prone so Gibbo returning would be a big plus.

Gueye and Oviedo did well on the short time they had in the derby match and could come in handy over this next little while.
Fella was a little rusty on Sunday but still showed up well so he will be a big asset against Hangeland, Craven Cottage always being a tricky place to go for most teams.

Certainly conceding early is a habit Moyes has to end right now as it is costing us points.

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