Oumar Niasse was allegedly described as a 'disgrace' by undercover police who caught him driving around with three friends, flouting the coronavirus lockdown.
The 29-year-old striker was pulled over in Withington, Manchester last night, after officers saw him driving a friend and two women in his Mercedes without wearing a seatbelt.
One of the police officers allegedly told him: "You are bang out of order, a disgrace. As a Premier League footballer you've just put everybody here at risk. What are you doing? It's totally embarrassing."
Niasse's encounter with the law came just 2 days after the UK government ordered people to stay indoors to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection that causes Covid-19.
One witness reportedly said the police were suspicious of the football star, shining a torch in his face and asking him to spell his name.
"It is shocking that Niasse is carrying on regardless," the witness continued. "We're not supposed to gather with more than two people in public yet everyone in that car seems to think they can do what they want."
Officers put a call in to Everton FC to tell them what Niasse had been up to and the women left the scene in an Uber, the witness said.
Greater Manchester Police said: "At 9:30pm on Wednesday covert officers on routine patrol stopped a vehicle. The driver was reported for failing to wear a seatbelt and obstructing officers."
It's not the first time that Niasse has been in trouble with police. In 2016, the striker was detained after an assault was reported at a property in Salford.
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Reader Comments (199)
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1 Posted 27/03/2020 at 09:32:19
What on earth is he driving?
2 Posted 27/03/2020 at 10:28:05
Very disappointing that Niasse has let the club and its fans down and more importantly has disregarded the health warnings. Given the efforts the club has made to help out during this crisis and the obvious good publicity that this has attracted, Niasse's actions have undermined all of that good work.
3 Posted 27/03/2020 at 11:52:04
He has left his common sense in his imaginary locker.
4 Posted 27/03/2020 at 11:55:36
5 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:02:02
How misplaced that was, and just goes to show that these highly paid footballers in the main, do actually think because of their immoral earnings, they are above everyone else and in this case above the Law.
I sincerely hope he has been fined to the maximum for all these offences, no mention in the article whether he did or not, it does not set a very good example to the younger fans.
I have a cretin next door to me who is claiming everything going from the House of Nonsense, purporting to be severely disabled. Yet often goes out without his walking (bullshit) stick. He his totally disregarding the stay at home advice and getting drunk each day from the Off-Licence.
The Police have even brought him home on several occasions, but this does not deter him at all, he still does it with no regard for anyone other than himself.
6 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:04:43
7 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:08:27
8 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:18:07
I agree with that. Is this gross misconduct?
9 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:28:02
What is stopping all clubs from instigating this? It's not as if any player in the Premier League could not afford to have his wages severely cut. Even the kids are getting £5k a week, £250k a year, so it might be a good reality check if they have to "survive" on £625/week – like many millions of ordinary people will be doing for the next three months.
10 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:39:05
Hearts Ask Players to Accept 50% Pay Cut or Terminate Contract Due to Coronavirus Crisis
They refused. And even threatened to cancel their contracts if it was forced upon them. Makes me sick.
11 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:40:57
As for Niasse, the club should terminate his remaining contract.
12 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:42:58
13 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:50:14
14 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:54:43
He's not playing and refuses to move while taking his salary. Now yes, he's under contract and has a right to receive payment. But there's a way to do things, and a way not to do things. High road vs Low road. Class vs Raised by Wolves.
This, for me, is the last straw. Kick his ass out the door.
15 Posted 27/03/2020 at 12:56:33
Dont even pay him off. Make him go the litigious route and see if he wins.
Another situation where Everton can be strong and take a stand and do the right thing on principle.
16 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:10:51
Whether your 86-year-old neighbour is acting out of naivety or with total disregard is still inexcusable, you would think at that age he should have known better having experienced the War etc albeit as a child.
17 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:14:37
This instance shows how responsible he is and that he has hangers on, the downfall a lot of footballers. Should get prosecuted and heavily fined by the Club. Agree with contract termination if possible.
He will find how good his friends are now. Glad his contract finishes soon.
18 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:18:06
19 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:18:43
I'm curious. Has anyone told him to knock it off as he could be endangering those around him?
I'd say something without hesitation, and ask him to keep his distance and for the good of everyone stay back from all and sundry six feet while this thing's going on.
Some dude sneezed in the grocery store yesterday. I was out trying to grab yet more food while the kids are home acting like locust. This guy who sneezed didn't even cover his mouth! Just sneezed - a good, hearty, loud sneeze I might add - out in the open. He was like 4 aisles down so I said nothing, but if I was in his remote area I'd of given him one hell of a verbal lashing.
People have to think about others right now. Bare minimum requirement for me.
20 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:26:18
21 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:33:58
Mind you, will he be treated in a NHS Facility, or will it be BUPA or some other queue jumping outfit for the Financially privileged?
Like you say, if true there is some karma or justice! :-)
22 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:37:51
23 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:39:39
24 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:47:30
Doesn't look like a Mercedes to me either although they do have some 'compacts' on the market, so it could be one of those, but still looked more like a Fiat 500, or something of that ilk.
25 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:47:30
26 Posted 27/03/2020 at 13:58:26
27 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:07:12
28 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:07:44
29 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:10:40
Yes, on the face of it his behaviour appears to be sheer stupidity but there may be another side to the story: Niasses. We can assume someone from the club will ask him to explain his actions before they apply appropriate sanctions.
As a footballer he is one of the worst we have ever had. I could not believe how unfit he appeared to be on his home debut in 2016. He was blowing for tugs after twenty minutes. All this for a mere £13.5m.
30 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:21:12
Might explain a couple of things...
31 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:24:53
Get a grip.. its all a load of bull... Google or YouTube 'David Ike' – he is still a good goalkeeper apparently.
33 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:33:30
It might not have been the smartest thing to do without saying professional footballers are the smartest but this does seem to be a little over-reaction from police? What's the fine, 30 quid?
34 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:34:54
t wasn't like Niasse was out handing out smallpox blankets to orphans. Maybe he picked up some hitchhikers whose car had been impounded due to losing their jobs courtesy of the virus? Maybe he was driving home from the hospital having taken his neighbours to get tested.
Maybe, most of us live in households, go grocery shopping, go to work, and are surrounded by many more people without being exposed as fiends and shamed in the national press.
Yes, he is a rubbish player but all this "measure of the man" stuff is hyperbole.
35 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:40:52
As Brian and Derek told us a few days ago, the Hearts skipper has taken a 50% pay cut:
36 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:42:24
37 Posted 27/03/2020 at 14:44:54
38 Posted 27/03/2020 at 15:01:51
40 Posted 27/03/2020 at 15:18:04
The sooner the contracts run out for Niasse and a few others the better. Awful player.
41 Posted 27/03/2020 at 15:22:24
42 Posted 27/03/2020 at 15:34:48
43 Posted 27/03/2020 at 15:36:53
44 Posted 27/03/2020 at 15:53:52
45 Posted 27/03/2020 at 16:02:18
46 Posted 27/03/2020 at 16:03:28
47 Posted 27/03/2020 at 16:09:24
On another note though - the piece mentions that he/they are contravening the rule to not gather in groups of more than two, then the police stick the two females in an Uber. plus driver makes it three. Not sure how that solves anything?
48 Posted 27/03/2020 at 16:14:53
49 Posted 27/03/2020 at 16:35:25
Mind you if that useless impersonation of a footballer is one of the shootists then that's one less bullet that they need to worry about.
50 Posted 27/03/2020 at 16:37:19
51 Posted 27/03/2020 at 16:44:40
52 Posted 27/03/2020 at 16:56:46
53 Posted 27/03/2020 at 17:35:38
54 Posted 27/03/2020 at 17:46:18
55 Posted 27/03/2020 at 17:48:46
I thought this site was about football, not politics. Perhaps the moderators are on holiday?
56 Posted 27/03/2020 at 17:55:39
ESPNFC reports that "Royston Drenthe has recently turned to acting and is starring in the ongoing Dutch TV series, Mocro Maffia. The series revolves around the Moroccan Mafia in Netherlands and is based on the book by the same title. Drenthe posted a clip of the upcoming episode on his Instagram page. The series is about three friends who rise to become the top cocaine dealers in Amsterdam, until a feud brought on by jealousy leads them to fall out."
The story reports that Drenthe's last professional football employer was Sparta Rotterdam in 2018, and he now plays for amateur side Kozakken Boys in the Netherlands.
This thread is now open to Drenthe jokes as well as Niasse.
57 Posted 27/03/2020 at 17:59:18
That's why I love it.
58 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:08:56
I find it ironic that the leader of our country who has stalled at every chance, now has the virus. The plan being to allow the virus to run rampant until they realised up to 250,000 could/would die.
As for karma, mate. My missus got sent home from work two weeks ago, she was ill for a week. She may have had Covid-19, we don't know. We don't test anymore. So my karma is well cool, my friend, how about you?
As for your last paragraph, you're not checking other threads.
59 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:14:25
60 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:16:02
61 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:16:59
He posted it in a little-visited thread and does, I feel, merit greater publicity.
Along the lines of the spoof dubbing of Hitler in his bunker hearing the news of Sheffield United's relegation from the Premier League all those years ago (that spawned so many look-alikes), this is similar. A one-toothed pundit speaking in a foreign tongue, with dubbed sub-titles on our neighbours' plight.
You absolutely MUST turn up the volume! Together with the dubbing, the man's laugh and delivery is what makes this so funny.
62 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:18:34
63 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:26:27
Starring as the main hoodlum for the Moroccan Mafia is a taciturn, shaven-headed Marouanne Fellaini.
64 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:39:15
What a bunch of shitholes they are – wonder if they want to buy Niasse?
65 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:52:05
67 Posted 27/03/2020 at 18:57:54
No-one else think sacking somebody, anybody, from their job on this score is a mite OTT?
If the culprit in this bit of film was someone who'd just come off doing a double shift while being paid the minimum wage, would all the aggrieved, apparently "holier than thou" TWers contributing to this thread be in favour of him/her being sacked?
68 Posted 27/03/2020 at 19:02:52
69 Posted 27/03/2020 at 19:11:30
Enjoy some light relief, people.
70 Posted 27/03/2020 at 19:19:03
If someone offered you obscene amounts of money for doing something you love doing, would you say no?
71 Posted 27/03/2020 at 19:24:52
In every city in the UK many toxic pollutants in the air are reducing quickly due to us all being on home arrest.
Professor Lee at York University, who apparently measures these things said that if this went on long enough the number of early deaths saved from pollution could outweigh the deaths from this virus.
Two caveats, he didnt say how long it would have to go on for, and that it would take years to measure.
But its something!
72 Posted 27/03/2020 at 19:28:37
73 Posted 27/03/2020 at 19:32:47
The dentally deficient guy in the video, with the raucous laugh and the reaction of the presenter/interviewer is priceless too. Well spotted, Sir, keep them coming! We need a bit of light-heartedness in these austere times, especially if it does involve the RS.
74 Posted 27/03/2020 at 20:08:22
75 Posted 27/03/2020 at 20:20:20
I'd second Roger's motion to keep politics out of TW, if only because it tends to bore the shit out of every other conceivable online forum, so TW is our port in the storm.
It also diverts time away from making fish puns.
76 Posted 27/03/2020 at 20:21:32
James # 51
"Been reported Boris has contracted the Covid-19 virus. Seems there is a thing called justice."
"Roger, well what can I say to that. Apart from I have not wished illness on anyone. (This goes to Dave as well.)"
Didn't say you wished it on him, just that you seem to think it's fine he's tested positive.
I refer to my earlier comment. Grow up.
77 Posted 27/03/2020 at 20:23:13
78 Posted 27/03/2020 at 20:24:47
79 Posted 27/03/2020 at 20:50:20
80 Posted 27/03/2020 at 20:54:39
Gerry Q., amen, a class act is Mr Naismith.
And, as always, a pleasure to see you post. Hope all's well.
81 Posted 27/03/2020 at 21:13:24
82 Posted 27/03/2020 at 21:18:28
Thanks for posting it. Any more like that? Priceless!!
83 Posted 27/03/2020 at 21:32:31
Selfish and clearly no concern for the lethal reality of Covid-19.
Seeing what's going on in the UK and across the world, I don't see any way back now.
84 Posted 27/03/2020 at 21:46:26
I thought he was half-baked anyway - so what!
85 Posted 27/03/2020 at 21:49:44
If people are suffering because of cuts, they had the chance to get rid at the last election. I fucking hate people blaming Boris for this.
86 Posted 27/03/2020 at 22:01:18
87 Posted 27/03/2020 at 22:02:19
88 Posted 27/03/2020 at 22:14:34
Of course it wasn't Boris who created the virus, but everyone could see what was happening in Italy, and this fella was leading us to herd immunity, instead of shutting us down much earlier, and I just hope we don't pay the price for this in the next few weeks.
No blame to anyone at the minute, just stay at home, stay safe, and hopefully we can all get through these uncertain times, because that's the only important thing right now. Stay safe everyone, xx.
89 Posted 27/03/2020 at 23:07:15
Bobby Mallon. I can't be a moron as you have the copyright, I didn't want Boris to die. Your lips must have got tired of reading after post 20. I have clearly stated we have been ill and wouldn't wish that on anyone.
90 Posted 27/03/2020 at 23:29:27
91 Posted 27/03/2020 at 23:29:37
It may not be the same as wishing it on him but to claim it's justice would "suggest" some sort of satisfaction on your part and that is crass in the extreme in some people's eyes. I'm surprised you can't see that, mate.
92 Posted 27/03/2020 at 23:39:27
93 Posted 27/03/2020 at 23:40:02
Seeing you in the Excelsior after that 4-0 against Man Utd seems a lifetime ago, mate. Roll on the end of this!
94 Posted 28/03/2020 at 00:09:15
"I am all growed up, can tie my own shoes n wipe my own arse. As a grown up, from me, GO FUCK YOURSELF!"
Had I known I would never have made my earlier remark. Forgive me. You are far more advanced than I first thought. Respect.
95 Posted 28/03/2020 at 00:23:38
96 Posted 28/03/2020 at 00:39:23
Johnson's disastrous, and crazy, strategy of 'herd immunity' has wasted 2 weeks and could be responsible for hundreds of unnecessary deaths. This strategy is why 2,500 Madrid fans were allowed into Liverpool 2 weeks ago.
From day one, his leadership has been shambolic and totally lacking in focus.
97 Posted 27/03/2020 at 00:40:07
Your first comment (20) was not in any way disturbing, and probably hardly worth responding to. However, merely by posting, you must realise and accept that people should be allowed to criticise your post and that sometimes it can even get personal.
Your response (89) just demonstrated that you are exactly what your critics directed toward you. Sorry but you are not the grown-up individual that you would probably like to be. You are an immature, foul-mouthed person who is, in all likelihood, far closer to being like "Boris" than you would like to believe. That is an insensitive loudmouth who enjoys spouting off but hasn't the common sense or maturity to ever just listen. Now you can start throwing your toys out of the pram.
98 Posted 28/03/2020 at 00:46:29
99 Posted 28/03/2020 at 01:53:02
At one time or another, both Groucho and Karl have had mentions plus everybody in between that all-encompassing east - west spectrum... and just as many and varied from the north - south of it.
It's like a footballing TARDIS, a lot bigger on the inside than the outside.
Long may it remain so.
Niasse though; just blew 95% of his goodwill away. Before somebody pulls me on the 5%.
For me he keeps that for the look on Koeman's squirming grid when those 2 goals went in.
We won't sack him, we're too nice.
100 Posted 28/03/2020 at 02:17:00
Yeah, he's crap but he's always given 100% when played unlike many (Schneiderlin, Sigurdsson, Pickford & loads before them).
Feels like one of those dog-whistle Daily Mail stories.
101 Posted 28/03/2020 at 02:29:36
Love the RS video and that guy's laugh. Somebody needs to put it up on Facebook so the RS can see it and see them worry a little more about if they will get the trophy they've spent 30 years and millions on trying to win.
102 Posted 28/03/2020 at 02:29:54
103 Posted 28/03/2020 at 02:40:06
I'd think Atalanta v Valencia would be Game zero in Spain, not Italy, given Bergamo was already ravaged by coronavirus at the time and Spain had been spared. Afterwards, FIVE Valencia players tested positive and now the virus is rampant in Spain.
On another point, I'm puzzled as to how Germany has 50,000 cases and around 300 deaths whereas France has 32,000 and three times as many dead. Likewise, England has comparatively few cases which seems like bullshit given that every politician and celebrity has it. (So how come so few normal folks have it? Cause they aren't testing!)
This makes me wonder if North Europeans have some level of immunity to it? Or maybe we are better at covering it up and classifying deaths as “natural causes"?
[Not trying to ferment conspiracy theories by any means but it is a statistical anomaly.]
104 Posted 28/03/2020 at 03:54:38
But yes, when it all dies down and the subsequent inquiries are done, most of the truth (never all though) re hotspots / patient zero etc, will come out... I hope we're all here to see it and comment.
Did Italy just get unlucky?
Why Iran though? Hoards of undercover Chinese 'Advisors' operating in Iran under the principle of – my enemy's enemy is my friend?
Why Washington State? New York I can see, despite what other places may think, it's probably what passes for the centre of the world nowadays.
What does the future of worldwide air travel hold? Will we go back to the old days of smallpox, having to physically carry in your passport an up-to-date virus vaccination certificate?
I can see cruise ships taking a long-term hit.
105 Posted 28/03/2020 at 04:29:46
Niasse let us judge him by his football, cannot trap a bag of cement, very much Bakayoko Mk 2, shit signing that makes you wonder how, if anyone saw them play, why would you sign them (unless someone was stupid enough to trust an agent), not even related to George Weah?
106 Posted 28/03/2020 at 04:45:49
Each case of infection will be resolved either one of two ways; recovery or death. The most recent stats I could find (28 Mar) show 160,728 cases worldwide with 27,365 deaths.
That's a fatality rate of 17%!
(Significantly more than the somewhat optimistic estimates of 2-3%, though admittedly we will struggle to ever get accurate data on the number of patients that resolve to full health recovery, due to lack of testing and misdiagnosis.)
With that in mind, officially the total number of deaths in UK stands at 759; the total number of recoveries at 135!
Pretty sobering when you consider it in those terms. Please don't take unnecessary risks leaving the house, certainly don't travel large distances and I hope you all stay safe.
107 Posted 28/03/2020 at 06:41:03
France, Italy and Spain had no such plans set up. The US had one a couple of years ago, but Trump disbanded the program in 2018. They eventually found the plan the program had left behind, but there was no one to execute it, so they ignored it.
108 Posted 28/03/2020 at 08:11:06
109 Posted 28/03/2020 at 08:43:09
The authorities are saying that, once the war is over, then they are going right back to this game, because with Atlanta scoring four times, then there must have been a lot of hugging and kissing going on during a load of celebrations and not long after Bergamo exploded.
The biggest problem with any virus being contained is that not everyone shows symptoms and, even if they did, I'm sure many Atalanta would still have gone to such a big game, such was the ignorance being shown by many western nations at the time.
110 Posted 28/03/2020 at 09:03:44
111 Posted 28/03/2020 at 09:04:49
I watched it a couple of nights ago. It was made in 2011 but could have been made last week. Some parts of it shocked me because they referred, loosely with dramatic licence, to our present predicament.
It was surreal and spooky. Give it a watch if you're not the sort to get too upset.
I couldn't believe it was made nine years ago. If you watch it, you'll know what I mean.
112 Posted 28/03/2020 at 09:12:05
If it's gross misconduct, dismiss him.
113 Posted 28/03/2020 at 09:13:10
Ive just bought a dingy- called “Dignity” and Im taking Cameron to Crosby in a minute with a compass saying Belfast, and hope that you can meet him on the other side, and put him up for a few weeks...please mate!
Hes like that character in Harry Enfield, (Only Me!) so the dingy will probably burst, but look after him if he makes it please Andy. Ive been sending you a few little videos mate, but you might not know its me because it seems since I changed networks, Ive now got two different numbers, for some unknown reason.
I found it incredible that Trump disbanded that program in 2018 Mike, but it shouldnt surprise anyone really, and going back to the top of this rant, Im just glad we never played and beat Liverpool just under a fortnight ago, (honest, it seems like six weeks already) because although Liverpool never had many cases around this time, Im sure it would have increased at a much more rapid rate, if the scenario Ive just envisaged, had actually happened?
114 Posted 28/03/2020 at 09:50:42
115 Posted 28/03/2020 at 10:05:26
Our strategy is not hugely different to many other countries, it seems, but there are some differences in how the strategy is rolled out. As an example, Ireland shut down all their schools before we did, and there was an outcry here about that. The explanation we were given was that, although shutting schools was an option, it brought about as many difficulties as it did benefits. We did shut down the schools, but later than in Ireland. On the other hand, Ireland yesterday introduced the same "lockdown" measures that we introduced last Monday, a full four days later than us.
Around the world, strategies vary. China introduced a massive lockdown which seems to have flattened the curve. On the other hand, South Korea has a much lighter lockdown but has managed to do a huge amount more testing, and targetted quarantine for those who test positive, together with rigorous pursuit of their contacts using GPS technology.
Italy, it seems, is different to us because they have more cross-generational family units, and a much older demographic, leading to a spike in over 70s getting the virus and becoming seriously ill.
I dunno, it's up to you if you want to get angry and rant and rave about the politics of this. My view is that the government is pretty much handling the economic side of it internally, but being led by external independent experts for the health/prevention side of it.
You can argue all you like about the state of the NHS, or austerity, or whatever floats your political boat, but if you look at the actual reaction to the virus, I'm not sure it's of any value to focus on personalities like Boris Johnson, or whether or not he's a buffoon. He's doing his job, which is fairly limited in these kind of situations, and the main thing is that he appears to be listening to the advice of independent experts. Now, if it turns out our experts are wrong, then that's not really his fault. Likewise, if the experts are right, Johnson shouldn't expect too much praise.
Stay safe folks.
116 Posted 28/03/2020 at 10:20:19
Can I respectfully suggest you read the articles by Richard Horton, the Editor of The Lancet. There's been a couple so far.
He takes a somewhat different view.
Other than that, I've no comment to make.
117 Posted 28/03/2020 at 10:35:00
118 Posted 28/03/2020 at 10:39:39
They seem well qualified to me. Richard Horton and other dissenting voices might turn out to be right. But it's probably not unreasonable for the government to take their advice from the above mentioned three, rather than the editor of The Lancet at this stage.
119 Posted 28/03/2020 at 10:45:44
120 Posted 28/03/2020 at 10:57:02
On a wider issue, it appears that some sports are beginning to realise the financial implications of the lack of revenue, and players in Rugby Union are now being asked to take pay cuts. Surely it is likely to happen in football too. The longer this goes on, the clubs are being drained of cash.
121 Posted 28/03/2020 at 11:01:22
Theres another Imperial College report today on their website. Report 12. Worth a read.
122 Posted 28/03/2020 at 11:45:40
123 Posted 28/03/2020 at 11:49:24
If you read the summary, it tells you pretty much the main points.
124 Posted 28/03/2020 at 11:51:15
125 Posted 28/03/2020 at 11:57:22
126 Posted 28/03/2020 at 11:59:10
Absolutely true, but Imperial are the one that the Government seems to use, and Neil Ferguson from Imperial is one of their advisers.
“All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
127 Posted 28/03/2020 at 12:10:33
128 Posted 28/03/2020 at 12:36:37
129 Posted 28/03/2020 at 12:43:34
130 Posted 28/03/2020 at 12:45:44
On the one hand, some nations anticipated and prepared for a virulent global virus such as this (see South Korea, Japan and Germany as examples), whilst other developed countries are ill-prepared as a result of year-on-year reductions in budgets for public health systems resulting in the under-staffing and under-resourced service which is at breaking point (see the UK and US as examples).
However, it was also very difficult to foresee the events as they have unfolded. As recently as 12 January, the WHO's official statement on the initial outbreak in Wuhan said:
"At this stage, there is no infection among healthcare workers, and no clear evidence of human to human transmission... Currently, no case with infection of this novel coronavirus has been reported elsewhere other than Wuhan."
The statement concluded with a neutral risk assessment and placed no restrictions on travel: 'WHO does not recommend any specific health measures for travellers.'
That said, by the end of February, early March, the threat to all nations was very evident. Countries and their political leaders had a very clear example of how to suppress the spread of the virus even without vaccines. Italy and Spain this month have offered further evidence of the importance of early and effective testing and isolation.
Some political leaders took contrary advice, or simply followed their own hunches. The UK's initial response on Friday the 13th March – just two weeks ago – moved many in the scientific community to question the government's course of action and within 3 days, they basically inverted all their previous rulings.
The claim was that 'the science had changed'. No it hadn't. They chose to ignore it and pursue a different 'solution', the herd immunity one.
Donald Trump also seems reactionary, more concerned with the numbers and health of the financial markets than those of his people. But also, he is making some bold executive decisions which he can point to come election time later in the year.
Closing the borders to international travel. The biggest financial bill passed in the history of the country to aid all levels of business.
Yesterday's command to GM to stop trying to fleece the government and get the hell going on producing much needed ventilators. That will play well to his voter base.
What won't play well will be an exposion in the US death rates due to Covid-19. And it certainly appears to be on the cusp of that.
Now the numbers are difficult to calculate because for sure the official stats will never be fully accurate. They report only those people that have been tested and confirmed as having Covid-19. Similarly, the death rates report only on those tested positive. Again, others will have died 'unregistered' as victims of the virus.
Even with those caveats, the numbers in the US are getting truly frightening. The US has comfortably outstripped every other nation on the planet with its number of confirmed cases. Of the 100,000+ confirmed cases, only 2,500 have thus far recovered. Against that, 1,700 have died. The daily death rates which earlier this week were counted in the low tens has quickly risen to the 100s – closing in on 400 today alone, as I write.
The likes of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump very much wanted the executive roles they have assumed. That includes making literally life or death decisions for their nations. And in the year of 2020, that is very much how their legacy will be judged.
131 Posted 28/03/2020 at 12:46:53
132 Posted 28/03/2020 at 12:47:08
Not sure I share your view of the credibility of Richard Horton.
Horton savaged the Government this week when he said, "We knew in the last week of January that this was coming – the message from China was absolutely clear that a new virus with pandemic potential was hitting cities.”
Yet on the 24 Jan 2020 he tweeted:
"A call for caution please. Media are escalating anxiety by talking of a “killer virus” + “growing fears”. In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language."
The WHO at the time downplayed the possibility of Coronavirus becoming a global pandemic, and parroted the Chinese authorities ‘findings' that there was no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission. Something Horton called “clear and confident”…
"And, when one examines the global response to 2019-nCoV, Chinese authorities have acted quickly and decisively to control the outbreak. They have shared information rapidly and transparently. Meanwhile, WHO has been impressive: clear and confident decisions and communication." Richard Horton Jan 24 2020
Richard's own journal, The Lancet, included a report on the effects of Coronavirus in China published weeks later in the February edition, which said “2019-nCoV still needs to be studied deeply in case it becomes a global health threat” – implying they did not, at the time, see the virus as a global health threat. Richard is arguing that governments around the world should have seen what he, the editor of one of the world's premier medical journals, only sees in retrospect…
I'm with Michael Lynch on this one.
133 Posted 28/03/2020 at 13:03:26
I'm not saying Horton isn't a credible figure, just that – as Steve Carse said earlier - you pays your money and you takes your choice. The government are being well advised, but whether the advice turns about to be correct is a moot point.
Jay – the "herd immunity" thing is in my opinion being misunderstood. It was mentioned just once, and it is indeed an exit strategy – probably the only exit strategy – for all epidemics. We need to create herd immunity by a mixture of a vaccine (hopefully) and people developing their own immunity by catching and surviving the virus. There is then a tip-over point, at around 60% immunity it seems, at which the virus can no longer spread in huge numbers and ultimately dies out or becomes massively surpressed and manageable.
Our lockdown seems to be a kind of "splitting the herd" strategy; complete lockdown for the most vulnerable who will crash the NHS if they all get the virus at once, and lesser lockdown for those who will survive it in greater numbers if they contract the virus. But, herd immunity is the only way out of this in the end. Lockdowns around the world are about saving the health systems from being overwhelmed, not about stopping the disease for ever. We're just buying time here.
134 Posted 28/03/2020 at 13:04:21
I deliberately made no comment about him. Other than saying he took a different view. He was involved in reporting to the relevant Parliamentary Committee this week and I was watching it, so did Neil Ferguson. So he's getting his point of view on the record.
He's certainly getting his articles into The Guardian too. It is important that such views are fed into the system, not least because it is the democratic thing to do. Otherwise how else can Government be fully held to account?
Other than that, I have no further comment to make, other than to say that the time for such debate is probably once all this has passed.
135 Posted 28/03/2020 at 13:16:38
Jay, those figures of recovered vs deaths in the US look pretty grim and chime with what I was saying above; that the mortality rate may well be higher than first estimated. Even cases currently diagnosed as 'mild' can escalate into 'critical' very quickly.
So yeah, on that basis alone, it doesn't seem awfully appropriate to be glad anybody has the virus.
136 Posted 28/03/2020 at 13:55:24
I'm in agreement with Andrew Neil's tweet on Friday:
"How do you square your attack on the government's response — wasting February, you claimed — last night on Question Time with your own tweet of January 24th? Looks like Medusa was right to be anxious."
So, yes on that basis I'll take your Richard Horton and raise you a Chris Whitty and a Neil Ferguson.
Anyway, about Niasse...
137 Posted 28/03/2020 at 14:09:21
In the case of the last Pandemic in 1918-1920, the Spanish Flu, which also originated in China, it was the second wave when the virus mutated becoming more aggressive that caused the most deaths.
Whilst governments may have various degrees of success according to policies adopted, it will run its course, maybe beyond the headlines. Hopefully by that stage a vaccine has been developed. In financial terms it is being referred to in terms of War Economics, meaning that those that are best prepared will be able to restructure quicker.
Good Luck and stay safe.
Maybe some have overreacted to Niasse's folly, but I have been disappointed with him for a while.
138 Posted 28/03/2020 at 14:36:01
Sorry mate I didn't see a link to read about the first leg you were obviously referring to but I had just been reading a lot about the second leg in Spain which ostensibly had the same kind of "game zero" effect there.
One thing I will say is this idea being mooted again of finishing the season behind close doors is ridiculous. Just with the two teams, coaches, physios, refs, groundsman, few essential club staff, presumably a few policeman, you're talking about 100 people minimum congregated together. That's considerably more than the recommended "2 people" which exponentially lowers spread. Clearly, the risk would be even greater if you had fans.
But, essentially we're saying Carlo Ancelotti, the ball boy's granddad, David Prentice from The Echo etc and their loved ones are less valuable than the rest of us. Either it is safe or it's not safe.
And if we decide that for economic or mental health reasons we're willing to take some risks. Then we should expand that risk to other areas beyond just football. e.g. small businesses that maybe interact with fewer than 100 people per day, whose employees are more in need of their wages than professional footballers.
139 Posted 28/03/2020 at 14:57:04
I believe my post @ 130 in part aligns with your view, that it is very difficult to apportion 'blame' to governments given the unprecedented nature of Covid-19. I consider I demonstrated a fair balanced view. The situation is too grave to consider it solely along partisan lines.
But I will contest with you your claim that the 'herd immunity thing is being misunderstood'.
It was not merely mentioned in passing. It was explained in detail by the governments own Chief Science Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance.
Immediately the strategy came under attack by the scientific community in their 100s. To the extent that just two days later the Health Minister Matt Hancock was moved to reel it back and say it was NOT 'policy'.
The very next day after Hancock's statement, the strategy completely changed. Any 'misunderstanding' on its efficacy came from the government, not others misinterpreting their decrees on 13th March.
Boris Johnson originally quite explicitly said that there was as yet no need to stop large public gatherings such as football matches. Various sports governing bodies took that decision themselves, not on the orders of the government.
His Chief Medical Officer for England, Chris Whitty, said similar, that it was best to 'hold off' on recommending social distancing because 'imposing it too early would cause people to become exhausted and stop participating in it'.
Unquestionably, judged on their own statements, by Monday 16 March there was a complete u-turn on the UK government's original strategy.
If they had continued with herd immunity allowing freedom of movement, which you promote as an 'exit strategy' for this epidemic, rather than the lockdown the UK now has, what's your guestimate of the number of cases and deaths the country would be reporting?
As you rightly concluded, the policies now are just buying time here. The UK government's original response carried an increased risk of ending more people's time prematurely.
140 Posted 28/03/2020 at 15:27:26
Further born out in the latest Imperial College report currently on their website. Report 12 if you can find it, Jay.
141 Posted 28/03/2020 at 15:34:23
142 Posted 28/03/2020 at 15:38:17
As you say, the government's original response was informed by the advice they were receiving at that time from Sir Patrick Vallance and others. When that advice changed, partly as a result of new modelling from Imperial College amongst others, the strategy on timings changed.
Hundreds of the scientific community did indeed pen a letter to have a pop at the government – or rather, at the people who were advising the government – but hundreds of other academics have supported their strategy.
Personally, I haven't a scooby which group of scientists is right. That, as Chris Williams says, above, is one for the future. We won't know until we can measure the outcomes against the strategies. But I certainly hope that the government isn't basing its advice on the letters page in The Guardian.
143 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:02:09
To you and me as complete lay people on the science, it's a game of eeney-meeny-minny-mo on who you believe.
As my own post demonstrated, as recently as 12 January possibly the biggest health authority of all, the WHO itself, was not making a big deal of Covid-19. As Dave Brierley posts, Richard Horton's comments can be read as revisitionist given his own public observations downplaying the potential impact of the virus in January. Nostradamus he ain't.
I don't expect any Prime Minister or President to be all-knowing and able to know what best to do in any and every situation. They have to put faith in their advisors.
But when you say 'the advice changed' [within 3 days], you are simply wrong, Michael. The model and strategy the UK government adopted already existed. It wasn't 'new knowledge'.
They had a choice to make on who to believe and what to do. That they rapidly moved away from their first declared response within 3 days strongly suggests to me an acknowledgement that they originally got it wrong.
144 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:03:52
Although it was never espoused as official policy, as others have said, Sir Patrick Vallance did say it would allow “enough of us who are going to get mild illness to become immune”, so as to protect the rest of the population. The aim being for 60 per cent to become infected.
I think what stifled any plans for this was reportedly new data coming in from Italy. Modellers at Imperial College and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine realised, based on what was happening there, that the UK's approach would cause around 250,000 deaths (up from the starting estimate of 100,000).
Therefore, it seems that the Government advanced lockdown plans far earlier than they had originally intended to. Some will take this as evidence that ministers saw the light – and gave in to the consensus.
It will be morbidly interesting to make comparisons with the Netherlands and Sweden when all this runs it's course. The Dutch authorities have reportedly pursued herd immunity, and have been pretty unapologetic about it. And in Sweden photographs from the country show Swedes out and about in groups, with bars, restaurants and events of under 500 people still allowed to run. It has kept schools for children up to the age of 16 open, with many people continuing to work and using public transport.
Johan Carlson, head of Sweden's public health agency, has said that the country “cannot take draconian measures that have a limited impact on the epidemic but knock out the functions of society”. Words that would no doubt go down incredibly badly if Johnson or Donald Trump were to utter them.
I guess we'll have a better idea of which strategy was wiser in the coming weeks.
145 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:18:12
146 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:24:20
Thank you for the info concerning what is happening in Holland and Sweden. That is as you say morbidly fascinating. The fact that a country like Sweden have taken this approach is remarkable, only time will tell how it works out for them.
We keep hearing about how Italy, France, Spain and so on are reacting and this make sense considering their sizes and populations but what is happening in Argentina say or Nigeria?
Another thing I'm puzzled by is why Iran keeps being mentioned when figures are given out? Why has Iran suddenly emerged from some sort of shadow? What's happening in Iraq? Saudi Arabia?
The reports from all of these countries cannot be discounted and will be invaluable in trying to combat the effect of the virus.
147 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:30:26
I sincerely hope that the other end of this crisis sees greater reflection on a national level regarding what is really important and an improved community spirit; something the delightful Thatcher worked so tirelessly to destroy.
I would like to think things will be different but the majority of people are selfish twats and the Mail is the biggest selling paper.
148 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:41:05
On another note, it's just been announced You'll Never Walk Alone, as performed by Gerry and the Pacemakers, has topped a chart of songs experiencing a surge in popularity as UK listeners look to music for comfort and reflection during the coronavirus lockdown.
149 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:44:10
150 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:49:33
I watched "Contagion" too and fully agree with you. The bit that spooked me was the advice given to the masses on limiting the virus-spread was so very, very similar, if not identical, to what's coming out now on an allegedly scientific basis. Hmm.
151 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:51:57
They're nervous. Not convinced by the country's more 'relaxed' approach.
This week Holland's daily death rates have rapidly risen from single digits to nearly 100 a day.
They have 9,000+ active cases. There have been just 3 (THREE!) recoveries in total. This week the death total moved from double digits to triple digits and as I write sits at 639 deaths.
Those numbers and ratios are going in one direction only. Neighbouring Belgium is starting to see similar numbers.
All very sobering.
152 Posted 28/03/2020 at 16:54:19
No-one really knows what the best policy is. The scientists disagree and social media is chock full of confirmation bias.
Wash your hands, give everyone two metres and stay safe.
153 Posted 28/03/2020 at 17:00:33
First aired two years ago on BBC 4, it follows a large scale experiment of what could result from a pandemic such as we are now experiencing in a typical English town.
Recommended. Very relevant.
154 Posted 28/03/2020 at 17:07:09
Ideally, the best approach to me would be quarantine with rapid expansion of ventilators and finding a vaccine but obviously the latter part of that is a hypothetical wish with no end date. So it's a dire situation. I don't envy any of the medics or politicians trying to deal with it.
155 Posted 28/03/2020 at 17:08:11
The only good thing is that bogus experts like Ferguson have never, ever been correct on the outcomes of events like this. If we performed like him in our own jobs we'd be summarily sacked and yet here he is influencing government policy and our lives.
156 Posted 28/03/2020 at 17:30:35
Sorry if that comes off pedantic, but I'm a little touchy about it. Chinese people are being insulted and physically attacked in the US thanks to President I-Take-No-Responsibility, who insists on calling it the Chinese Virus.
157 Posted 28/03/2020 at 17:38:43
My guess would be that a coach driver or something to do with the hotel where Valencia stayed in Italy, caused some of their players to contact this virus, because Im sure I heard the other day that the first Atalanta player has only just tested positive for this Coronavirus.
Like I said, Im just glad the Merseyside Derby was cancelled, and if the experts were saying large crowds were not a problem for something so contagious, bearing in mind, Wuhan went on total lockdown, to contain the spread, then this is something I also find very worrying.
158 Posted 28/03/2020 at 18:04:07
Sadly, Chinese people have suffered abuse here too. Even the owners of a fish and chip shop in a small Welsh village have been abused, despite the fact that they've lived here for decades. It's shameful and just underlines the lack of intelligence of some people. People who, incidentally, can help vote Governments in and out. I despair...
159 Posted 28/03/2020 at 18:23:43
160 Posted 28/03/2020 at 18:43:13
Don, they remain safe but locked down. Latest word is they may be allowed out of their home around 8 April. Travel restrictions are likely to stay in place for months, so I'm likely to remain a bachelor for quite a while.
161 Posted 28/03/2020 at 18:44:55
162 Posted 28/03/2020 at 19:02:58
I think describing the virus as American or Chinese, as opposed to saying it might have originated in any country, is small-minded and dangerous. There are enough other idiots using that as an excuse to attack people from a particular country.
163 Posted 28/03/2020 at 19:11:34
164 Posted 28/03/2020 at 19:27:20
Genuine question, Martin: Why is Neil Ferguson a 'bogus expert'? I know little about him but I'd be interested in your reasons for that view.
I'm not a great fan of so-called experts myself but, having seen first hand that the Richard Horton 'expert analysis' was total bunkum, I'd be interested what lead you to that view in connection with Ferguson.
I think you're probably right about the virus originating from China and, although it doesn't always follow that the first place where a disease is discovered equates to it being the source, it looks very likely from what I've read. Time, however, will tell.
165 Posted 28/03/2020 at 20:07:07
166 Posted 28/03/2020 at 20:22:28
What do you expect from a nation that changed 'french fries' to 'freedom fries' due to the French not getting involved in a war that had nothing to do with them?
167 Posted 28/03/2020 at 20:47:52
Except not at all. Their original criticism of their own government were summarily censored so they worked around this by substituting 'Xi' for 'Trump', and unsurprisingly it started trending.
There is a large portion of the Chinese population who can't even be bothered to mask their contempt for the Communist party atm. Nor should we. Only one government to date that we know has actively furthered the spread of the virus by stifling reports and even arresting a doctor attempting to alert them about the graveness of the situation.
I am pretty confident that our Boris wouldn't have the first clue what 'herd immunity' even was without consulting expert opinion. Let's put our inate bias to one side for now and concentrate on getting through this pandemic. Just my tuppence.
169 Posted 28/03/2020 at 20:59:46
No offence taken and no offence intended.
Just relaying information that I picked up on Wikipedia. Thank you for further information and clarfication. I know where you coming from, where fear is used to pedal scapegoatism. Always unacceptable in a civilized society.
My grandmother lost two sisters in one week in the second wave of that pandemic, so that is where my interest came from.
170 Posted 28/03/2020 at 21:08:16
171 Posted 28/03/2020 at 21:48:52
Because that's where it almost certainly originated.
Would you prefer it was known as Grimsby Flu?
172 Posted 28/03/2020 at 22:08:26
When a world leader deliberately labels a virus in the way that Trump has, he's doing it for his own political base and not purely to be accurate about the geographical location of its origin.
173 Posted 28/03/2020 at 22:12:35
174 Posted 28/03/2020 at 22:17:58
175 Posted 28/03/2020 at 22:39:46
Peter, your tuppence is not what this country deserves. You should think long and hard before you disrespect our Prime Minister and country as so many do in these extremely difficult conditions.
Easy to comment from your internet soapbox without any experience or knowledge of what's going on.
"I may be wrong but I'm guessing you almost certainly know nothing of what a large proportion of the Chinese population know: I mean, how could you?
"There is a large portion of the Chinese population who can't even be bothered to mask their contempt for the Communist party atm." How could you possibly know that? You been round China asking the population?
"I am pretty confident that our Boris wouldn't have the first clue what 'herd immunity' even was without consulting expert opinion. Let's put our inate bias to one side for now and concentrate on getting through this pandemic. Just my tuppence."
How could you know any of those things?
Peter, you know fuck-all about anything.
176 Posted 28/03/2020 at 22:42:59
177 Posted 28/03/2020 at 23:01:56
I spoke with a Korean yesterday and was horrified and sympathetic initially when he told me he'd been spat at on account of “looking Chinese” amid the virus. My sympathy evaporated when he further explained that he hates Chinese people and Japanese for that matter.
I just thought what an ignorant man. Too stupid to see people adopting his own attitude are to blame. It's a time to pull together not to act like medieval savages.
178 Posted 28/03/2020 at 23:02:40
He's the President of the USA, for fuck's sake!!
179 Posted 28/03/2020 at 23:06:34
180 Posted 28/03/2020 at 23:09:40
As to knowing what is happening in China, I follow what is happening on their social media. I try and follow what happens in that country in general, given the appalling lack of human rights.
What we see, as in anyone who can be bothered looking, is a deluge of people on Chinese social media literally calling the party a bunch of murderers. This is unprecedented.
Either you are not Chinese and therefore didn't have the first understanding of what I actually wrote or you are an aggrieved Chinese citizen in which case you are defending the indefensible. Over to you.
181 Posted 29/03/2020 at 00:34:16
I haven't got a clue what you're on about, pal.
Over and out.
182 Posted 29/03/2020 at 00:48:37
184 Posted 29/03/2020 at 05:34:34
185 Posted 29/03/2020 at 06:05:27
I'd prefer it was called Rotherham Flu as it contains the words rot, her and ham and shows that it obviously originated by eating long-dead sows.
186 Posted 29/03/2020 at 10:42:51
187 Posted 29/03/2020 at 11:22:45
1) What is it? - It's a respiratory illness.
2) What is it called? – Coronavirus.
3) Where did it come from – (voice over) it first originated in Wuhan, China – along with a big Chinese flag in case you're deaf. Then 4, 5, 6, wash hands, coughs and sneezes, social distancing, blah, blah.
Oh and every other ad is flogging the "We're all in this together" message, which isn't wrong, it's just an annoying earworm now, when a lettuce has gone from $3 to $11 in 3 weeks and petrol is still at just under pre-price war levels. Some – looking at you, supermarkets – obviously are more in it together than others.
But the government have to keep them on side, don't they, nevermind that Immigration and Health couldn't decide who had overall responsibility and let 2,700 cruise passengers more or less walk off and do a runner.
Oh and today, Sunday afternoon, it was like a Bank Holiday at my little seaside town.
188 Posted 29/03/2020 at 13:14:21
189 Posted 29/03/2020 at 16:28:45
Here in Thailand, petrol is almost back to the price it was when I arrived 26 years ago; unfortunately beer isn't and I drink more litres of beer in a week than I do petrol.
190 Posted 29/03/2020 at 18:35:41
There are far too many on ToffeeWeb endlessly posting backwards and forwards in a vain effort to prove they are RIGHT. That immediately puts you in the "Trump" mode. Politics is for politicians and Everton is for Evertonians. I know there is not much to talk about or discuss at the present time. Do what the Sports Media excels at and make up stories about the 27 players who we are going to sign for next season. It may give us something to smile about.
By the way, when I refer to Politicians, I do not include Donald Trump. As an ex scouser who now lives about 20 minutes from the border, I consider him to be an arrogant, pompous dangerous imbecile whose name should never be mentioned on an Everton fan site. I sincerely apologise to everyone for even mentioning his name twice in my post but I had to in context with the post.
To start the good news. Everton will be signing Messi and Ronaldo next Wednesday. They both wore masks when they met with Moshiri yesterday. Problem is who will they replace???
191 Posted 29/03/2020 at 18:57:43
192 Posted 30/03/2020 at 04:06:20
Just to elaborate on my post. As I indicated I live near Niagara Falls, Canada, and have for the past 45 years. My family and I have spent many days "over the river", as we say, and also many longer trips to most of the States in the US.
When I discuss "D", I do not in any way consider him as representative of the many Americans I have met. Most of those I have met, and there are many, are decent empathetic very generous people. Good Neighbours for Canadians and Ex Brits.
I can ignore PITNR as a Politician but I just have no time for him as a human being. As a kid, I despised loudmouth bullies. He is that and far more. A despicable, lying, arrogant apology of a human being. Oh, and by the way, I don't like him. Please tell me why he manages to have a 52% approval rating.
Just to stay relevant to the original topic, Niasse seems to be as inconsiderate as PITNR but, if I could vote, he would be far ahead of "D".
193 Posted 30/03/2020 at 04:20:25
China were slow in informing WHO but were trying to work out what they were dealing with. They then shared genetic sequences quite quickly on 12 January.
WHO were slow to put out first sit-rep reports, 20 January and recognised human-to-human transmission on 23 January.
UK universities and labs were aware and working on Covid-19 by 23 January.
Whilst we can discuss models, I'd like to know why our basic pandemic plans were not initiated earlier? We have been planning for several years, yet we, the UK, followed a patchy approach.
WHO have a tool kit for planning. It should be asked why we have substantial stores of PPE, yet our Health Minister – sorry, Health and Social Care, the latter being neglected – he states the store was developed due to Brexit. So they did not follow WHO guidelines?
They clearly did not complete the planning for transportation and distribution and left our Heath and Social Care staff and the vulnerable exposed.
This Government should fall on its sword when this is over, that is, if it knows where its sword is.
194 Posted 30/03/2020 at 04:35:38
I'm sure I recommended the BBC 'Contagion' Pandemic to you? Great contributions as ever, Jay.
That experiment was 2017 and I was interested in the App used for tracking as it resembles the tracking used in South Korea, don't you think?
I contacted the Beeb in February to suggest its use, perhaps updated and modified but a quick solution or grab the tech from South Korea, but no response.
Generally though the reason the movie 'Contagion' or indeed the Dustin Hoffman movie 'Outbreak' have resonance is because they are all based on a known threat and the pandemic experience and planning of the last 20 years or so.
195 Posted 30/03/2020 at 09:40:22
196 Posted 30/03/2020 at 13:38:07
I do indeed have you to thank for first bringing the BBC 'Contagion' documentary to my attention a week or two ago.
Living abroad to access content such as BBC iPlayer I have to deviously use a VPN. I'm guessing the Beeb have just dug it out of its archives and made it available again in this current climate. Because when I first tried to find it on iPlayer after you mentioned it, it was listed 'unavailable'. It now is.
With so many of us with time on our hands, I cannot recommend it highly enough. Here's the link again:
Extremely educational. Extremely sobering conclusions how a virus such as Covid-19 can spread. Extremely revealing how simple practices we can ALL do - like washing your hands thoroughly - can have a dramatic positive impact on containing the spread of the virus.
I am puzzled by one aspect of the documentary, however.
This was made 2-3 years ago. It spoke of the UK Government (and others) always being in a state of preparedness for a virulent outbreak such as this. It speaks of models and protocols that would kick into action should such a threat arise. It shows mammoth Government warehouses, stocked in readiness with acres and acres of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for medical staff.
So the obvious questions are:
1) why did the UK Government dither in taking action to the rising threat and not immediately trigger the already-in-place protocols?
2) why, with all the stockpiling of PPE, it is being reported that frontline NHS staff are working at high risk with inadequate PPE?
It really is a top-top watch and not dry and dreary at all.
197 Posted 30/03/2020 at 14:17:52
Compare this to many Matalan workers in Liverpool today complaining that the conditions they are working under make safe distancing very difficult. I can't understand why the police haven't moved in and closed it down. Yet another case of a millionaire has people working in conditions he wouldn't work himself. There are workers who are having to go to work to keep the country going; I don't think if Matalan closed for 3 months anyone would notice.
There was a slight glimmer on 2 fronts today, first Mercedes Formula 1 team have in conjunction with medical staff produced a CPAC unit which gets air into the lungs so will reduce the need for some patients to have to use ventilators. They are going to be able to produce 1,000 a day.
Secondly, there was some news that the self-isolation and safe distancing was starting to have an effect, although they do stress only over the next 3 weeks will we know this is really having an impact.
198 Posted 30/03/2020 at 14:20:17
Ive been doing a bit of research into some of this, re modelling and the sudden about face on 16th March, when the brakes went on.
Ive little else to do with my time!
It seems that Imperial were running a model prior to this date, which was an older model, 13 years old seemingly which modelled likely outcomes from an influenza type virus. This was what played in to the governments responses prior to 16th, including herd immunity, etc.
Apparently data started coming in from Italy, which showed that influenza was not what this was, and that infection rates and particularly mortality rates were horrendous. This was modelled,it showed that the likely outcome was 260,000 deaths if current policy was pursued, and the likely outcomes from all the mitigation factors we now know and love. This was in Report 9 on their website. It covered UK and USA.
Report 10 was the result of a poll that Imperial did on 17/18 th March,, using yougov, which measured the public response to the measures taken on the 16th, and one of the things it showed was that 50% of the population wasnt practicing social distancing. Hence the stronger measures, shutting pubs etc announced on the 20th.
Report 11, was based on detailed modelling of China and other countries.
Report 12 is the latest one showing the impact on age groups, ICU beds, different countries grouped from wealthy to poorer off. Among the other things it shows is that a relaxation of the current measures after three months could lead to another outbreak, albeit smaller, further down the line. Hence yesterdays announcement about normal life being suspended for 6 months, presumably. It again coverscUK & USA.
I dont know what happened to the protective clothing, but 10 years of austerity and 4 years focusing on Brexit can do funny things to a country.
Whether this could have been picked up earlier, and there is a school of thought which says it should have been, Ive no idea. But in time Im sure it will be, hopefully independently.
The implications for resumption of PL football, I would have thought seem clear.
All models are wrong. Some are useful
199 Posted 30/03/2020 at 14:58:03
I meant to flag up that brilliant 'good news' story about Mercedes and University College London devising a breathing aid that potentially could save 100s, if not 1000s of lives.
They reversed-engineered an existing Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) device and improved it, as well as making it easy to manufacture. The initial aim is to start churning these out at a 1000 a day.
This buys much needed time for both the ill and the hospital staff. It potentially prevents too many becoming critically ill and in need of invasive ventilator for which the patient needs to be sedated, and as a consequence consuming medical staff's precious time.
The flip side, also from F1, is the story of Red Bull's motorsport boss Helmut Marko saying he proposed isolating his team drivers in a camp and infecting them with coronavirus while the season is in hiatus, so they would be fit and well should the season re-start!
Thankfully, the idea wasn't pursued! What a stupidly high-risk strategy! [His Austrian, doncha know...naughty Jay, naughty].
Chris @ 198.
Interesting. Watch the BBC 'Contagion' link I shared. It's extremely educational.
I also speculated on whether the kerfuffle over Brexit, together with year-on-year cutting of budgets to health and social welfare programs, distracted 'our masters in Parliament' and as a result PPE stock was not maintained to necessary levels.
As you say, a relaxing of current restrictions after 3 months potenitally allows the virus to get its second wind and hit hard again.
The notion that professional sport can be resumed any time soon, even behind closed doors (or isolating teams in hotels for a month, with them only venturing out to play games as I've read today) appears pure fantasy.
200 Posted 30/03/2020 at 15:10:20
Yes that makes an interesting watch. I nearly said good, but its not so good.
Its said that innovation is always greater in wartime. This isnt war, but has some similar characteristics. I think we may see many similar creative solutions before weve seen the back of this.
201 Posted 30/03/2020 at 00:17:39
There is a saying in clinical care that 10 days in bed for the elderly adds 10 years to their functional age. For those elderly who recover from Cov-19, and many do, very few will recover to their pre-admission functionality. Social Care therefore will need a massive injection of public funding.
In terms of the incredible engineering innovation I have been very impressed. There was a simple French design which will be well suited to produce on mass cheaply and deploy in the field, so to speak, for the poorer and most densely populated countries in the world as they will be most in need a little way down the line.
202 Posted 01/04/2020 at 15:21:46
203 Posted 11/04/2020 at 16:14:59
We would have got great publicity out of our tough no-nonsense stance and it would not have cost us anything and he will never play for us ever again.
Bit too late now. But there again, so is this comment.
204 Posted 27/04/2020 at 05:07:18
He could well become our most sought after player !!
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