How do we fund squad improvements this summer?

An over-sized, over-priced, mostly under-achieving squad, financial constraints, and the impact of the Covid-19 crisis pose significant challenges to Everton this summer. Where is the money coming from for new signings?

Paul The Esk 30/08/2020 56comments  |  Jump to last

With the news we have agreed terms with Napoli over Allan, I thought it may be of interest to cover how we fund transfers and account for them.

The need to improve our squad, particularly in midfield, is obvious to all. There is complete agreement among Evertonians as to the need to bring in quality players. Preferably, players that meet Brands’s requirements in terms of age, price and future value, whilst also meeting Ancelotti’s more immediate need of putting quality onto the pitch, quality which can understand, relate to, and perform in line with his expectations and tactical requirements.

Both Brands and Ancelotti will be aware of the legacy issues facing the club. A largely over-sized, over-priced, under-achieving squad (albeit with exceptions), plus financial constraints, real (ie, cash flow) and regulatory (Premier League profit and sustainability constraints). These problems are compounded by the impact of the Covid-19 virus with reduced income in the last 5 months, most likely this next season and an increased risk to future income.

So let’s deal with the finances first.

Profitability & Sustainability

The Premier League permits aggregate losses of £105 million over any three year period. The calculation for permitted losses allows for (without penalty) expenditure items such as women’s football and community expenditure. Therefore, the figures presented to the Premier League will be different, to a degree, to those in the published accounts.

The rules require all clubs to produce forecasts. In March of this year (2020) Everton will have produced a set of figures looking at the previous 2 years (2017-18, 2018-19) and projected figures for the full financial year 2019-20 ending 30 June 2020.

The projected figures are not in the public domain, however it’s not overly difficult to calculate, within a reasonable margin of error, what the figures will be.

The 2019-20 projections include a reduction in gate receipts, a reduction in commercial and merchandising income. They also include an adjustment for operating costs. They do not include, for this year, any reduction in broadcasting revenue as a result of the recovery of some costs by the broadcasters.

For these projections, they do include the £30 million naming rights option payment by USM. This will be treated as income for accounting purposes. Despite that, I am forecasting a loss of around £65 million for the year ending 30 June 2020.

That produces an aggregate loss (before deductions) of £185 million over the last three years, getting close to double the permitted losses of £105 million. It is against that backdrop that I have consistently questioned our ability to buy in this transfer market, despite the footballing need to do so.

Having rounded up previous years’ figures, the figures are shown below:

Profit & Loss £’000s

31-May-18*

*30-Jun-19*

30-Jun-20**

Matchday

20,500

14,200

10,400

Broadcast

133,800

132,700

130,000

Commercial/Other

32,200

40,800

63,600

Total income 

186,500 

187,700 

204,000 

Wages

139,500

160,000

150,200

Other operating expenses

61,100

43,200

39,000

EBITDA 

– 14,100 

– 15,500 

14,800 

Depreciation

2,000

6,500

6,000

EBITA 

– 16,100 

– 22,000 

8,800 

Amortisation

66,000

95,100

110,400

EBIT 

– 82,100 

– 117,100 

– 101,600 

Exceptional costs

7,500

7,700

7,000

Profit on player sales

80,000

20,300

52,000

Profit before interest & tax 

– 9,600 

– 104,500 

– 56,600 

Interest income

1,500

1,000

1,000

Interest expense

400

7,500

10,000

Profit before tax 

– 8,500 

– 111,000 

– 65,600 

Tax expense
Net profit 

– 8,500 

– 111,000 

– 65,600

Figures rounded Projected figures

So the issues are as follows; cash flow arising out of the repeated costs being greater than income and secondly, the regulatory position. The former is potentially a solvency issue; the latter a regulatory issue.

Cash flow

The losses of recent years, since 2016, have been funded by (i) shareholder (Moshiri) contributions £350 million (ii) Increase in debt (estimated £25-50 million) (iii) player sales (player trading profits of £200 million plus) and (iv) possible changes in creditor terms.

It is impossible to put a precise figure on our current cash flow without knowledge of the above, but it is certain that our cash flow continues to be negative and, without further contributions from one of the above, solvency becomes a real issue. This also has to be contextualised with the future earnings arising out of a second wave or post-Covid world. The economic damage is already being felt in terms of cancelled sponsorship contracts and (most worryingly) rights holders.

Financial year 2020-21

This financial year (2020-21) will see some significant changes to the previous year. Firstly, matchday income will be significantly less. Fortunately for Everton we are not as reliant on matchday income as the top six. Nevertheless, on the basis of 25% capacity across the season, match day revenues will be no more than £3.5 million (£10.4 million 2020, £14.2 million 2019). Our commercial revenues will be hit by the non-recurrence of the £30 million option payment by USM and the much reduced physical attendance at grounds. Finally, as with all clubs, we will start repaying our share of the £330 million rebate to broadcasters. I estimate that to be £8 million in this year.

As a result, we will see revenues fall by an estimated £49 million compared with financial year 2019-20.

Costs

The biggest cash costs are staff wages. Everton have already made a start in reducing this year’s wage bill by a projected £15.3 million following the sale or release of Schneiderlin, Stekelenburg, Dowell, Niasse, Garbutt, Martina, Baines and several junior players.

Assuming planning permission is granted for the stadium and funding is achieved, the current costs associated with the stadium development will effectively disappear from the football club’s P&L, effectively reducing costs (on a year by year basis) by £7 million. Additionally, previous costs would be capitalised benefitting the P&L (£18 million approx).

Elsewhere, the club may be able to make marginal efficiency gains in operating costs but I am not expecting anything significant.

So, in the absence of further player sales, be it “the deadwood” or perhaps a trophy sale before the end of June 2021, before any incoming transfer activity & assuming planning permission is granted, the club’s P&L would deteriorate by a further £8 million taking losses for the year to an estimated £74 million.

The aggregate loss for the three years would be an estimated £250 million.

The importance of player sales this summer or before June 2021 cannot be overemphasised.

So, in the knowledge of the above, how do we improve our squad, and pay for it?

So let’s assume we complete Allan, Rodriguez (loan) and Doucouré.

Using Paul Joyce’s estimate of £25 million, it is likely we pay in instalments, possibly £10 million followed by two further payments of £7.5 million.

From an accounting point of view, I am going to assume he signs a 4-year contract worth £5 million a year. His annual cost to the P&L account is therefore £7.5 million a year (£3.3 million in wages plus £4.2 million in amortisation to June 2021)

Rodriguez realistically (and that’s a stretch!) can only come to Everton on loan – at least initially. We will pay a significant loan fee and an element of his salary. For example, 60% would be €120,000 a week – £110,000. A loan fee of £5 million plus the wage contributions would see Rodriguez costing the P&L £8.6 million.

The Doucouré deal may be a combination of cash and players. Using a player as part of the deal is beneficial in that it saves cash, might reduce the amortisation cost and reduces wage costs. All of which would be beneficial, but Doucouré coming to Everton still increases our overall cost base.

Assuming we could acquire him for £25 million (significantly less than Watford’s apparent valuation) and a £80,000 a week salary on a 4-year contract would see him cost the P&L £6.9 million this year (£2.7 million in wages, £4.2 million in amortisation to June 2021)

Thus the total cost of acquiring Allan, Rodriguez and Doucouré to the P&L would for the remainder of this financial year be in the order of £23 million.

In terms of cash flow the impact would be close on £31 million (assuming we made 40% initial payments on Allan and Doucouré).

So, where does this cash come from?

It is a remarkable roll of the Ancellotti weighted dice if these three deals come off. The club is already operating at significant losses as I have pointed out on many occasions, losses which have been funded by Moshiri, debt, a creative commercial deal and player sales. This against a backdrop of a possible new stadium and now a global pandemic.

Increased debt seems very unlikely in the light of what funders of Bramley-Moore Dock would require before agreeing to fund the stadium.

Increased financial commitment from Moshiri – possible, indeed probable, but remarkable in the context of what he has contributed previously and for what he is about to contribute towards the stadium.

Player sales

Aside from the players we really need to keep, it’s a hugely difficult market. This is what we have on offer and the current costs associated with employing each player:

£ millions Wages Amortisation Annual cost to P&L Book value (1.7.20)
Pickford 5.20 4.20 9.40 16.80
Mina 6.20 5.70 11.90 17.10
Gomes 5.80 4.70 10.50 18.80
Sigurdsson 5.20 8.90 14.10 17.80
Bernard 6.24 0.00 6.24 0.00
Richarlison 4.68 8.00 12.68 32.00
Digne 4.68 3.60 8.28 10.80
Bolasie 3.90 4.95 8.85 4.95
Walcott 4.55 5.06 9.61 5.06
Keane 3.12 4.85 7.97 9.70
Tosun 3.12 4.00 7.12 8.00
Kean 2.76 5.60 8.36 22.40
Ramirez 4.60 1.25 5.85 1.25
Iwobi 4.16 6.80 10.96 27.20
Delph 4.16 3.60 7.76 7.20
Holgate 3.90 3.90 0.00
Calvert-Lewin 3.90 3.90 0.00
Davies 3.12 3.12 0.00

The sale of Sigurdsson, Bernard, Bolasie, and Ramirez would balance the books in terms of the incoming trio of Allen, Rodriguez and Doucouré. It would not improve our position financially, but clearly improve the squad and make the team far more competitive. A top 7 finish would improve our Premier League payments by £9 million.

More than that, it would make tens of thousands of Evertonians much happier!

To conclude, we are stretching the financial envelope to the furthest it can go. We can fund these purchases if we can sell players this window. In the absence of sales, we rely further on Moshiri and travel deeper into a financial dark hole. In that case, the only alternative is sales of the likes of Richarlison and Digne in June 2021.

It is an extraordinary display of financial commitment or risk by Moshiri depending upon where you sit re financial responsibility. Me, whilst I want the players in, am entirely uncomfortable with our financial position.

Make no mistake, there is huge pressure on the club, on Moshiri, the board and Brands to find the financial solutions.

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Reader Comments (56)

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Pat Kelly
1 Posted 30/08/2020 at 16:41:28
It's too late for a trophy sale. Oumar has left the building.

Very sobering reading.

Mike Gaynes
2 Posted 30/08/2020 at 16:49:59
Here's an idea:

Ssell some fucking shirts in America!

Just gotta vent that one every couple of months.

Alan J Thompson
3 Posted 30/08/2020 at 17:13:09
Is there any likelihood of financial regulations, restrictions and penalties being suspended or eased during the necessity of playing games behind closed doors thus foregoing income or even to allow clubs to show how income might improve when some degree of normality returns?

Are the Premier League bosses likely to consider that penalizing clubs may be cutting your nose to spite your face or will it be business as usual, virus or no.

Jay Harris
4 Posted 30/08/2020 at 17:27:22
Paul,
Another great piece of work summarizing the challenges the club faces.

I have a queation which I asked on another thread.

If we extend a players contract (e.g. Michael Keane) does that extend the amortization period?

Eric Myles
5 Posted 30/08/2020 at 17:37:08
Paul, I've asked this question many times before as I'm sure you remember.

If the Premier League has fulfilled it's obligation to broadcasters in making the scheduled games available to broadcast, why should clubs have to make any refunds?

What is in the contract that makes this possible?

ps: Your table needs a "profit if we sell" column.

Eric Myles
6 Posted 30/08/2020 at 17:46:51
Jay #4, if it hasn't already been fully amortised it extends the period and by the remaining un-amortised amount.
Jay Harris
7 Posted 30/08/2020 at 17:59:26
Thanks Eric,
FFP may have something to do with extending his contract then.
Neil Copeland
8 Posted 30/08/2020 at 18:01:41
Paul, great article - thanks.

Do your numbers include for Keane's new contract? If not, I assume that will help a little with the amortisation figures?

Neil Copeland
9 Posted 30/08/2020 at 18:03:37
Jay and Eric, sorry only just read all the posts. Question answered, thanks
Tony Everan
10 Posted 30/08/2020 at 18:37:47
Thanks Paul, Mr Brands has got a fair bit of work to do this window. The extended transfer window will help us loan out players not in Carlo’s plans.

Additionally, I think we will sell one or two and replace them with loanees. This could help balance the books, whilst refreshing and strengthening the squad.

Has there been any indication yet of FFP being relaxed for a period?

Antony Kelly
11 Posted 30/08/2020 at 19:00:42
We fund improvements by stop handing out lucrative contracts to dud players i.e, Delph, Iwobi, Bernard, Pennington, Broadhead, Tosun, Mina, Moise Kean etc.. Remember Garbutt!!

Who’s making these decisions?
We have over payed and handed contracts out to easily to over hyped players...

Kevin Prytherch
12 Posted 30/08/2020 at 19:27:49
Using Paul’s table for wages and amortisation, how much have we saved the P&L by selling / releasing players?

Player Wages. Amor...P&LCost
Schneiderlin, £5. £6.5m. £11.5m
Stekelenburg, £1.5m. £0. £1.5m
Dowell, £0.8m. £0. £0.8m
Niasse, £2.8m. £3m. £5.8m
Garbutt, £1.4m. £0m. £1.4m
Martina, £1.8m. £0m. £1.8m
Baines £3.3m. £0m. £3.3m

Therefore there would be £26.1million less coming off the P&L account, as well as the estimated £5million coming in for transfers from Schneiderlin and Dowell.

Does this not cover the estimated £23million being added to the P&L for those 3? Or does the book value of Schneiderlin (surely he’s the only one who would have a book value) negate this?

Mal van Schaick
13 Posted 30/08/2020 at 20:08:00
If we clear out those who have been loaned out last season and those midfielders players who finished the season poorly in the last game against Bournemouth that would give us some leeway to invest in quality, committed players who have ambitions that match the owner and the fans. We need fresh faces and we should reward those players who are clearly not up to playing for us by selling them.
John Zapa
14 Posted 30/08/2020 at 20:12:51
Thank you Paul. It's clear the iceberg is straight ahead, but the captain seems insistent on sailing straight at it.

Before the pandemic, wages to turnover was at approximately 85%. Since then, despite some players departures, with the new additions, improved contracts to existing players and the damaging combination of reduced income, I fully expect wages to exceed turnover in the coming season. This is an absolute disaster of a financial mess however its looked at.

The other issue I'm concerned about, is what kind of financial institution would be willing to lend a (3 year in a row) loss making business a massive loan to build a £500m+ stadium? Anywhere in the world it would be impossible unless it was a government bailout!

As I see things now, the club is spending money they don't have, to buy players they cant afford, to try and achieve something highly unrealistic. They are basically betting everything on achieving qualification to the champions league, anything less would see a Leeds type meltdown. It's very dark days ahead.

Paul Hesketh
15 Posted 30/08/2020 at 20:34:16
Messi to Man City... makes you think does FFP really matter any more!
Nick Page
16 Posted 30/08/2020 at 20:42:41
Usmanov
Bobby Mallon
17 Posted 30/08/2020 at 20:49:01
Or Usmanov may hopefully buy us for £300 million and take over lock stock and barrel
Stephen Vincent
18 Posted 30/08/2020 at 21:02:14
Usmanov can't provide us with income which is pretty much the only way we will avoid FFP sanctions. He has already sponsored Finch Farm and paid £30M to have first option on the naming rights on Bramley-Moore Dock.

I have no idea how Chelsea hope to avoid further punishment. When Havertz signing is complete they will have spent north of £225m plus wages. If I remember correctly they lost £110m in 2018-19 and ok they sold Hazard for £90m but the figures still don't add up and they have just served a two window transfer ban. Presumably they are just willing to accept the consequences.

Don Alexander
19 Posted 30/08/2020 at 21:10:24
A sobering assessment Paul, but thanks nonetheless.

I think some us get over-exicted about Moshiri's wealth. In comparison to other Premier League club owners I doubt he's close to top half, nevermind top six. That said, Liverpool's reported owners wealth is on a par with Moshiri's. The difference is maybe the personnel in the boardrooms.

Paul Birmingham
20 Posted 30/08/2020 at 21:13:01
Excellent summary, Paul, and seriously spells out the reality of the financial mess, which EFC, is in.

The gravity of this situation, looks precarious, and makes you wonder if there’s further twists down the line, in terms of the ownership of EFC.

If, the next few weeks, do see much needed, new players coming in, then hopefully the recovery plan can start on the pitch, and drive towards a better place for EFC.

Mike Gaynes
21 Posted 30/08/2020 at 21:27:56
Per Goal.com, here are the richest owners in the Premier League:

1. Sheikh Mansour, City $20b
2. Roman Abramovich, Chelsea $11.3b
3. Stan Kroenke, Arsenal $10b
4. Srivaddhanaprabhas, Leicester $6b
5. Lewis & Levy, Tottenham $6b
6. Nassef Sawiris, Aston Villa $5.8b
7. Guo Guanchang, Wolves $5.6b
8. Glazer family, ManUtd $5b
9. Joshua Harris, Crystal Palace $4.3b
10. Mike Ashley, Newcastle $2.8b
11. Henry & Werner, Liverpool $2.7b
12. Farhad Moshiri, Everton $2.4b

Interesting that with the exception of the RS and Villa, the financial rankings roughly reflect the standings in the Premier League.

Paul Hewitt
22 Posted 30/08/2020 at 21:28:34
Moshiri has got this club in a right financial mess. How he made his money is anyone's guess.
Will Mabon
23 Posted 30/08/2020 at 21:58:10
Great stuff, Paul. The information and interpretation, if not the situation.
Will Mabon
24 Posted 30/08/2020 at 22:01:24
"Interesting that, with the exception of the RS and Villa, the financial rankings roughly reflect the standings in the Premier League."

Mike, the same is observed when comparing the table with clubs' player wage bills. Quite deflating actually.

Duncan Adams
25 Posted 30/08/2020 at 22:01:50
Moshiri is a highly successful accountant. Brands in a seasoned operator in the football market. Not to mention Ancelotti.

I don't know the ins and outs of what they are going to do but I suspect they have a plan. Probably involving a cuddly fella sailing his yacht around Monaco.

Joe McMahon
26 Posted 30/08/2020 at 22:17:26
Don, very sobering looking at Liverpool you are correct. They seem do everything correctly, and Everton 1988 onwards just don't. The money Moshiri has pissed up the wall since 2016 for a bottom half finish is a disgrace.

I still can't get my head round Sigurdsson, Pickford and Keane comes to £100 million spent, nevermind Rooney coming back on £160k a week. During that season Salah with his 30 + goals was on £60k a week less than Rooney. Premier League football clubs with nous are not run like this.

Mike Gaynes
27 Posted 30/08/2020 at 22:49:18
Joe, yes, but give credit where it's due. On a pound-for-pound basis, Liverpool has done it better -- way better -- than everyone else in the Premier League, not just us. They have shaded far wealthier clubs like Arsenal and Chelsea with their "nous".

Wolves seem to be doing it right as well, although how they handle themselves when the big boys come in for Traore will be a major test.

Paul Birmingham
28 Posted 30/08/2020 at 23:14:38
This reality check insight on EFCs financial status makes the club's development plans, ie, bringing in new players, and potentially with no sales from outgoing players being sold, very interesting.

The BMD project, to get the backing, must have some solid financial support, so I'm expecting Everton could be taking medicine next season under FFP, else there's a longer-term plan to ease the burden on Farhad.

Getting any deals done is gonna be some feat, all facts considered.

Hopefully the escape from Purgatory starts very soon.

Don Alexander
29 Posted 31/08/2020 at 00:25:00
Mike (#21), it's amusing to speculate, as many do on this site, on the extent of Usmanov's wealth.

If we do, he's just below Mansour and way above Abramovich.

Dream on in terms of him having an interest in buying Everton.

Watching his minion Moshiri as he surely does, I'd expect him to sack him given Moshiri's wanton stupidity over the years since he took hold of us.

Then again, it may just be another dastardly plot by ruthless 21st century ultra-capitalist Mavericks, sponsored in effect by Putin, to gain a foothold in the ever so welcoming-to-billionaires UK that our country has become under years of Tory "leadership".

If you didn't know better, you might just think Premier League football and the Tory UK notion of "enterprise" is thoroughly corrupt.

Jerome Shields
30 Posted 31/08/2020 at 07:20:01
Paul the Esk, You say funded by Moshiri; there are two loans showing on the 2019 accounts at 3. 5% interest. Is this the funds that Moshiri is providing? I can't see other funds being introduced in the accounts.
Terence Leong
31 Posted 31/08/2020 at 07:33:32
First and foremost, kudos to Paul the Esk for the incredibly detailed analysis! I must say that it escapes me, in terms of fully understanding the numbers et al.

However, what I read about posts blaming Moshiri, I think it's really odd, to put it mildly.

Some other contexts to consider:

None of the monied clubs 'benefited' from being able to invest their monies into the team, without the FPP as a consideration, and none had to consider building a stadium from scratch, so soon into the new owner's tenure. Everton FC had to.

Chelsea rebuilt their stands, more than 10 years after Abrahimovic's ownership; Man City inherited the City of Manchester stadium; Liverpool and Man Utd rebuilt their respective stands along the way too.

The other thing comes down to what we expect owners to do. Do we expect owners to decide which player is better, how much wages to pay, which manager to hire? Yes, it's their money, but they are to be advised by the people at the club. He wanted to get "Hollywood" managers who can attract players/ He wanted to get managers who will develop players. He wanted to get a "Director of Football" infrastructure to take the club forward.

For the supposed waste of money, it's down to the people who advised him re the appointments.

Robert Elstone has never impressed most people, and Kenwright has been out of his depth (people skills aside), compared to other chairman. Denise seems to be doing a good job, as an extension of her EitC work but, beyond the shores of UK, Everton's efforts to grow the international market is quite invisible.

Jerome Shields
32 Posted 31/08/2020 at 07:36:48
Everton have made a commitment to reduce wages % going forward in the 2019 accounts, so this would point to more player sales in this transfer window. On the FFP rules, there will probably be a relaxation on the rule, due to Covid, as long as progress is being made to achieve the £105 million figures, by extending the period to say 5 years, instead of 3 years.
Martin Berry
33 Posted 31/08/2020 at 08:22:55
Paul, an amazing piece of work and must have taken a lot of time and research.

I can only assume the Everton board have a plan and know what they are doing.

From a simple perspective, I think we will spend astutely but big this summer and recuperate by spending very little next summer providing Carlo gets his players in now.

John Keating
34 Posted 31/08/2020 at 08:35:24
So the goal for next season is to finish 13 points clear of third-bottom so when we get the 12-point deduction for going bust, we still remain in the Premier League.
Mike Owen
35 Posted 31/08/2020 at 08:53:17
Paul, thanks for that informative piece.

You make two references to Bramley-Moore Dock. But, being a non-accountant, I am left scratching my head on how this aspect of the club's finances (player transfers and wages) would intertwine with the costs of building a new stadium.

If it goes ahead, would we each year be making repayments on loans taken out to build the stadium?

If so, I assume such annual loan repayments would be rather sizeable. and only feasible if:

(a) broadcasting income remains the same or rises,
(b) we fill the stadium on a regular basis,
both of which are dependent on
(c) the team at the very least staying in the Premier League, but hopefully performing better than it has done in recent seasons.

Paul [The Esk]
36 Posted 31/08/2020 at 09:07:03
Jerome #30,

The two loans referenced were the advances provided by Santander on the transfer instalments due from Manchester United in July 2019 and July 2020 relating to the Lukaku sale. In the year ending 2019 Moshiri injected £149.25 million to keep us solvent.

Jerome Shields
37 Posted 31/08/2020 at 10:13:45
Paul #36,

Thank you for your prompt response. I found it introduced into the reserves from Blue Sky Finance Ltd, interest- free. It seems that Paul Hewitt (on another thread) was right with his £300 million figure. The difference between Kenwright and Moshiri is that Moshiri had access to funds that Kenwright would have never had.

No wonder Messi is not turning up for training for Koeman. How Kenwright is still Chairman shows you how comprehensive the negotiated Shareholders agreement must have been between Kenwright and Moshiri at the takeover.

I reckon that Covid-19 will buy Moshiri two more years to get Everton's house in order. Ancelotti needs to pull things around. Every other Manager has failed to produce the goods, all adding to the deficit, one way or another. No wonder Ancelotti was pushed for a Top 7 finish in the latter days of the season past. The players did not appear to be up for it or, in some cases, arsed.

I think the sale of Bernard looks a quick solution. Ancelotti did not play him as a preferred choice before the break. I am sure Ancelotti would like to move Sigurdsson and Walcott on, but any takers are unlikely. Davies might find himself at Newcastle.

Paul [The Esk]
38 Posted 31/08/2020 at 10:43:00
#36 Jerome, Moshiri added another £50 million between June and December 2019, taking his investment to £350 million. I suspect he has put his hand in his pocket again during the Covid crisis but we won't know until the accounts are published at the end of the year.

#35 Mike, yes we will have annual repayments of interest at least, probably interest and capital. Those costs will be met by the increase in matchday income and sponsorship. In the time between starting to draw down the funds and the stadium opening, we will probably capitalise the interest payments (ie, add them to the outstanding amount drawn down).

Jerome Shields
39 Posted 31/08/2020 at 15:06:59
Paul the Esk #38,

I see where you are coming from in relation to the Projections now. Ancelotti and Brands are really going to have to make a go of it this coming season.

The actual cost considerations and twists of how Everton have to operate in this transfer market, explains the prolonged negotiations.

At least there are now people in place that can get done what is required on the football side but it's going to take further changes to get the Commercial side in gear.

Jerome Shields
40 Posted 31/08/2020 at 16:03:29
Paul (the Esk) #38

On your previous article you did a comparative analysis of the effects of Covid-19. I am right or wrong in assuming that lower gate receipts and lower commercial operations receipts would mean that the effects are corresponding less. Probably in Everton's case, this is irrelevant given the poor performances of the football side in returns. Like not getting 7th place and losing out on £9million as a result.

The figures being bandied about are mind-boggling. Hope it is not akin to digging a very large hole.

Jim Bennings
41 Posted 31/08/2020 at 16:58:24
Allan, Rodriguez, Doucouré would all represent a big improvement on what we currently have; in case anyone has forgotten just how bad our midfield was last season, then please just cast minds back a few months.

Of course there's risk with signings but we need to start taking risks or stand still, even worse go backwards.

Get those three in and maybe one more;it will have to do until January, I feel.

Kieran Kinsella
43 Posted 31/08/2020 at 22:51:14
Paul, I noticed we are number two in terms of wages to income (85%) also Wolves just got penalized by FFP and are in better shape than us. So I suspect Monte Carlo or bust is the strategy. Having already spent unsustainably, we may as well go for broke as there's no feasible way to cut costs while improving.

Best case, we cook the books like Man City and pull it off. Worse case, we go bankrupt and reform as Everton AFC in the Northern Pontins League and attempt to emulate Glasgow Rangers 2.0.

Paul [The Esk]
44 Posted 31/08/2020 at 23:38:06
#43 Kieran, this year was always going to be the pinch year with high legacy costs whilst still trying to improve the squad. This is now compounded by Covid-19.

We won't go bust as we can still sell our way out of trouble if absolutely required. Where that would leave us in footballing terms though is anyone's guess.

There's not many more options if this roll of the dice isn't a winner.

Oliver Molloy
45 Posted 31/08/2020 at 23:56:08
Ancelotti is the last throw of the dice from Moshiri. If he fails, I think it is nailed on Everton will resort back to being happy to stay up. The only chunk of light is hoping that there is indeed something in the Usmanov connection. Moshiri just can not keep throwing loads of cash with signing players.

Of the three players who are apparently tipped to be wearing our shirt this coming season, Doucouré for me is proven in the Premier League and will give us 100% in the middle of the park, the other two, who without doubt are Ancelotti signings we can only hope they work out in the toughest league in the world.

Jerome Shields
47 Posted 01/09/2020 at 00:23:19
I agree Ancelotti is the last roll of the dice; if that fails, it is major consolidation. Relegation without being relegated.

I have seen this before in business where each new initiative does not produce the desired turn-around in fortunes, and circumstances work against them. It's back to the drawing board and consolidate what you have.

John Zapa
48 Posted 01/09/2020 at 03:21:24
Paul, you mention that the club can sell it's way out of trouble, but realistically, how much would the entire squad be worth in today's market? And more importantly, how many of the players would find buyers who would be willing to both pay a reasonable fee and take over the entire wages?

I think that there are just a handful of players in the team that fit both criteria. The rest would have to be subsidised sales.

Ajay Gopal
49 Posted 01/09/2020 at 06:43:31
Paul, that is a great effort by you to try and make sense of where we are as a club financially. I know you would have made some assumptions but you look to have done your homework thoroughly.

And why is this important to us fans? Simply because, if the club is being badly run with loose monetary controls, then it is a very slippery slope to financial meltdown, administration, points being docked, relegation, dropping down the leagues – the consequences are too horrifying to contemplate!

Paul, I don't know if you have factored in the increased wages of Ancelotti and his coaching team for Financial Year 2020-21?

My observations are as follows:

From the projected numbers for 2019-20, against the total income of £204 million, Wages + Player Amortisation makes up approximately £260 million! If you take out £52 million (profits on player trading), then that is still £208 million, which is £4 million more than revenue and clearly unsustainable.

I did a quick calculation based on Paul's numbers and if Brands were able to move on the following players (numbers in brackets indicates their Annual Cost to the P&L, in £M, again from Paul's table above):

Delph (7.76)
Ramirez (5.85)
Tosun (7.12)
Walcott (9.61)
Bolasie (8.85)
Sigurdsson (14.1)
Bernard (6.24)

That is £59.5 million that we can take off the P&L! And most of us would agree that, if Brands and Carlo can get in the 3 players rumoured, then we would not miss all these players moving out – even if it is all at once! (I would still keep players like Iwobi, Kean and Davies in the hope that with a better system and players around them, they will improve and so will their value).

Of course, we all know that it is an almost impossible task to take off all these players in one window, given that their combined book value (as on 1 July 2020) is £44.2 million. This is probably where Moshiri bites the bullet and takes a substantial loss on player sales – say sell them on for a combined £20 million instead of their book value of £44.2 million – a loss of about £24 million.

This would still be an overall improvement in the P&L because we would save £59.5 million in wages, but lose £24 million on them on the sale, still resulting in a reduction in losses by £35.5 million.

Carlo may go a step further and tell Brands to sell Pickford and Mina and get him someone like Sergio Romero and Tomori on loans. Then, our squad looks much leaner and we take our first baby steps towards financial sustainability:

GK: Romero, Lössl, Virginia
RB: Coleman, Kenny/Arias (sold/bought)
LB: Digne, Nkounkou
CB: Keane, Holgate, Branthwaite, Gibson, Tomori
MF: Gomes, Doucouré, Gbamin, Davies, Allan
ST: Richarlison, Calvert-Lewin, Kean, Gordon, Iwobi, Rodriguez, maybe 1 more.

Jerome Shields
50 Posted 01/09/2020 at 07:28:23
Ajay #44

That is the type of astute plan that is needed. But being able to bite the bullet like that is not Moshiri's style – he is more have an objective and depend on others to work towards it. To do as you say is to arrive at a clear statement to sell the players you have listed and say get it done, no bullshit.

What you say is clearly the way forward. I agree with your player assessments for your list to go and probable extension.

Jerome Shields
51 Posted 01/09/2020 at 10:33:31
I might add, creating a role for Baines, as Barrett-Baxendale, helped by Brands, are reported to be doing, shows a Chief Executive that is not bothered by wages. This can only be interpreted as a misguided "Get the fans onside" ploy.
Andrew Clare
52 Posted 01/09/2020 at 10:54:57
The only way to sort our finances out is to sell, sell sell. All of the flops should be sold at low prices just to get them off the wage bill. Then sell our main asset and buy the main players that Ancelotti wants.

That won't happen in reality as selling our main asset would be highly unpopular. You never know, though, as there is a big Spanish club in need of revamping.

Eric Myles
53 Posted 01/09/2020 at 16:52:32
Ajay #48, wouldn't your "reduction in losses" actually be termed 'profit' in the accounts?
Bobby Mallon
54 Posted 01/09/2020 at 21:41:22
We will fund squad improvements by selling Richarlison for over £100 million.
Phil Greenough
55 Posted 02/09/2020 at 18:15:26
"That would give us some leeway to invest in quality, committed players who have ambitions that match the owner and the fans."

I've quoted Mal at post 13 here, but it's been said many times on the forum. The reason I've posted this is, every time EFC buy a player, that is what they're striving for.

However, It's not an exact science and they get it wrong sometimes. It's not an exclusive trait that Everton possess; all football clubs have the ability to buy flops.

Jerome Shields
56 Posted 02/09/2020 at 20:38:47
Eric #53,

That's right.

At the end of the financial year, most of the transactions will be logged as a profit, with any losses balanced by a reduction on amortization costs and reduced cost of the players wages, resulting in a net profit in most of Ajay's selected sells.

Paul [The Esk]
57 Posted 03/09/2020 at 22:39:59
Well, we have a partial answer in that profit and sustainability has been postponed for a year.

A new rule E55 gives clubs another 12 months to get their finances in order.

Des Farren
58 Posted 04/09/2020 at 19:31:06
Alternatively Paul, how do we not fund squad improvements and still survive as I'm pretty sure Ancelotti was not employed to oversee our relegation next season.

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