The Beto Conundrum

Evertonians are no strangers to misfiring or underperforming centre-forwards.

Not since the days of Romelu Lukaku have Everton had a truly outstanding striker.

Although, in fairness, Lukaku is probably Everton’s only truly outstanding striker in the Premier League era.

Duncan Ferguson is, of course, a club legend. Wayne Rooney was an incredible talent, but it feels too limiting to call him just a striker — Rooney was everywhere in his first two seasons in the first team before his move to Manchester United, and even when he returned, he spent as much time in midfield as up front (and still managed to get into double figures for goals, and should really have been kept on longer by Marcel Brands, with the Dutchman far too determined to make his own stamp on the club in 2018).

Yakubu had a brilliant first season, but was subsequently derailed by injuries. It’s a similar story for Andy Johnson, who faded after a great first campaign in the mid-2000s.

Richarlison will forever be a fan favourite, but was at his best operating from wide. Dominic Calvert-Lewin does not get the praise this writer feels he deserves, but while his hold-up play and aerial ability is outstanding, he is clearly not a top class striker.

Suffice to say, world class forwards don’t just grow on trees. You can’t just replace a 25-goal per season striker like Lukaku easily. And that was the best part of nine years ago, anyway. A club like Everton does not have the funds to go and spend the £60m+ that is required to bring in such players, of whom there are few and far between these days anyway.

However, that doesn’t mean it is any less frustrating when strikers miss chances, or fail to get into positions to make the most of opportunities.

This week, Brentford owner Matthew Benham had some interesting things to say about one of Everton’s current crop of forwards.

Referring to a 1-1 draw between Brentford and Everton last year, Benham spoke about some glaring opportunities missed by Beto in that game.

At that stage, Beto was well and truly in form. With Calvert-Lewin out injured, Beto was flourishing under David Moyes. He had scored five goals in the space of four league appearances heading to the Gtech Community Stadium for a midweek match.

Yet when played in for several one-v-ones, Beto fluffed his lines. Ultimately, Everton fought back to claim a point, but there was definitely a question as to what could have been had Beto shown the composure he had found in previous outings.

Benham, though, had a different view.

Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Benham said: “When we played Everton at our place last year, Beto missed three one on ones.

“Any decent data model worth its salt would give Beto an upgrade. That is the case for any player who happens to make three one-on-ones in a single game, even if they happen to miss them.

“Typically for a one-on-one, the odds are 50/50 that you will score. You might say he's less efficient but the fact he is getting the positions for the shot is more important to us.”

Those Beto chances against Brentford were worth 0.76 expected goals, so he did clearly underperform, but does Benham have a point?

Everton’s strikers have not had enough reliable service this season, that is fair to say. It is also fair to say that they must take some responsibility for that.

Thierno Barry, for example, is still learning the ropes. He shows some real desire and intensity at times to be in the right position (see his goals v Aston Villa and Leeds United in January), yet at other times he has been far too slow to react, or has perhaps not put enough conviction into a finish.

Beto, on the flip side, does seem better at sniffing out opportunities — his goals against Brighton and Newcastle United were the kind of finishes that only come about because he was ready to spring and capitalise on mistakes.

Across his time at Everton, Beto has underperformed his xG by roughly six goals. That trend has continued this term, with Beto scoring 4 league goals from 6.45 xG. Barry, on the other hand, has netted 6 from 6.14 xG.

Barry, though, has played 1,615 minutes to Beto’s 1,055.

So, Barry is performing on-track to his xG, but Beto is getting more chances.

There could be a couple of reasons for that, of course.

We must factor in that Beto’s last two goals have come from high xG chances, with the goalkeeper stranded, the net gaping and the ball just yards out.

However, credit must go to Beto for sensing the opportunities to strike. He also seems to be getting more service than Barry. It is often the same players providing for them, so once again, Beto deserves some share of the credit there, too.

Barry is a developing striker and could easily finish his first Premier League season in double figures for goals, which by anyone’s yard stick, would be a very solid return. He is part of Everton’s future.

Beto’s time at the club is probably coming to an end, but he has demonstrated a handy knack of knowing where to be, and in the last couple of matches, he has dragged his all-round levels up, too.

One can’t help but think Benham has a point — strikers who have the ability to regularly get themselves in a position to be presented with chances are a useful commodity. That being said, it is a bit hard not to roll your eyes when you’re then told a centre-forward should also be “upgraded” despite missing several gilt-edged chances in one game.

As ever, there needs to be a balance between leaning too heavily on data and too heavily on the proverbial eye test.

Beto’s all-round game is too often found wanting, especially for a 28-year-old, even if there can be no doubt over his desire or commitment to the cause. But as Everton head into the run-in, Moyes definitely seems ready to embrace the possibility of his senior striker leading the line.

If Beto continues to sniff out chances, and just ups his finishing slightly, then perhaps he still has a key role to play after all.

All stats via Opta Analyst and FBref

 

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