This article provides a synopsis and analysis of BDO’s 20th Annual Survey of Football Finance Directors (January 2026), which examines the financial realities of professional football across the Premier League, Football League (Championship, League One, League Two), and the Women’s Super League (WSL).

BDO (originally an acronym for Binder Dijker Otte) is the fifth-largest accounting and professional services network in the world.

The report, titled "Defying Gravity: The Ever-Expanding Football Universe," captures the fundamental paradox in professional football: record-breaking revenues and valuations coexisting with worsening financial health and systemic instability.

Key findings include:

  • Revenue Growth: The Premier League achieved record revenues of £6.4B in 2024, supported by a new £6.7B domestic TV rights deal.

  • Worsening Losses: Despite high revenues, over 90% of surveyed clubs expect to incur a pre-tax trading loss in 2025.

  • Evolving Ownership: Ownership is increasingly dominated by international investors, particularly from the US, with over half of Premier League clubs now having a majority US shareholder.

  • Regulatory Shift: The industry is entering a watershed era of regulation with the establishment of the Independent Football Regulator (IFR) and new domestic spending controls like the Squad Cost Ratio (SCR).

Key Concerns of Participants

Finance Directors and club leaders expressed significant anxieties regarding the sustainability of the current model:

  • Declining Financial Health: More than a quarter of clubs flagged that their finances were "in need of attention," a worsening trend compared to previous years.

  • Unsustainable Wage Inflation: Average wages in the Championship have reached 93% of revenue. Even in the Premier League, clubs placed 8th to 17th operate at an average wage-to-turnover ratio of 69%, leaving them highly vulnerable to revenue fluctuations.

  • Reliance on External Funding: Nearly 90% of clubs stated they require shareholder funding in the near future to stay afloat.

  • Regulatory Burden and Disparity: Participants fear that new SCR rules will solidify the advantage of elite clubs with high commercial revenues, making it impossible for smaller clubs to bridge the gap. Some expressed concern that the IFR would add "additional workload without any serious changes" to sustainability.

  • Women’s Football Independence: 60% of women's teams remain dependent on inter-company loans and contributions from affiliated men's teams, raising concerns about their long-term viability if those men's teams face financial pressure.

Evidence of Systemic Risk

The document and supporting data highlight several factors that could trigger a "Big Crash" or contraction in the football ecosystem:

The "contagion mechanism" of transfer debt

A significant systemic risk is the "chain reaction" created by the transfer system. One club's payable is another club's receivable; if a systemically important club (like a "Big 6" member) faces a liquidity crisis and delays payments, it can force smaller creditor clubs into cash flow insolvency. Net transfer debt in the Premier League alone has reached record levels, exceeding £3B.

Mortgaged future income

Clubs are increasingly "plugging financial gaps" by seeking advancement on broadcasting distributions and transfer receivables. This "mortgaging of future income streams" reduces future liquidity and leaves clubs with no buffer if revenue growth plateaus.

The "Yo-Yo" financial abyss

The financial gap between leagues has created a "cliff edge." The average revenue for a relegated Premier League club is £135M, while a Championship club without parachute payments averages just £25M. This disparity forces promoted clubs to gamble on unsustainable wages to avoid relegation, often leading to "zombie clubs" that service historic debt rather than investing in growth.

Dependence on player trading profits

Clubs are inherently reliant on profits from player sales to stay within Profitability and Sustainability Rule (PSR) limits. If player transfer values were to collapse — potentially due to a "fire sale" in the summer of 2026 as clubs rush to comply with new SCR rules — the entire model of using player trading to offset losses would fail.

Multi-Club Ownership (MCO) risks

While MCOs spread risk for investors, they create systemic risks for the game's integrity. There is concern that MCOs navigate PSR rules by "moving costs or profits around their group" and that the "feeder club" model could discredit smaller European leagues by turning them into mere development pathways.


Reader Comments (38)

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Dale Self
1 Posted 22/01/2026 at 18:49:25
Thank you for this, Paul.

I will take a while to digest it all but these are obviously some metrics we will all need to get our heads around. Crucial stuff, thanks again.

Michael Kenrick
2 Posted 22/01/2026 at 21:43:52
They make a big deal about so many clubs making a loss, which Everton did for years and years.

To my cynical mind, this was a manufactured loss to ensure that they paid no tax -- clubs only pay tax if they make a profit.

And they love this idea that someday it may all implode. I suppose it gives it a veneer of responsible financial management when there's really a load of money laundering going on.

Maybe the Yanks will operate things differently? TFG already have at Everton, turning a profit by selling the WSL club to themselves (er... hang on) and taking a £43M kickback in the form of a share dividend.

Well, the Annual Report and Accounts for 2024-25 should be published soon for EFC Co Ltd and all will be revealled...

Ian Bennett
3 Posted 22/01/2026 at 22:03:22
Operating profit before player trading, market value of the squad vs carrying value in the balance sheet, interest cover and balance sheet strength. Those are the key things to focus on.

For years our off-field performance has been worse than our on-field. Hopefully we are moving up the Premier League under TFG.

Kieran Kinsella
4 Posted 22/01/2026 at 22:20:44
Surely wage inflation will end soon since there is nowhere left to drive it up.

In the 90s, it was Italian billionaires paying over the odds, then Real and Madrid accumulated untold debt to beat them, then the Premier League came along, then China started offering stupid money, then Saudi Arabia.

But where is there left to be the next place to lure gold diggers by offering double or treble salaries to entice people away and cause another chain reaction?

Are we gonna see North Korea suddenly offer Ronaldo double his Saudi money? Will Martians team up with Elon Musk to triple wages for those going to the red planet?

I imagine we are sort of tapped out now so the Mina Raiolas of this world can't shake clubs down saying “well this other league will pay my guy even more.”

Brian Harrison
6 Posted 23/01/2026 at 10:18:02
Paul, as always, a very interesting and thought provoking piece from yourself. I don't know anybody who simplifies the financial state of football better than you.

As you say, many clubs are in financial difficulty but they are all too frightened to admit that player wages are making clubs haemorrhage money like it's going out of fashion. I know a few years back Everton's wage bill made up 92% of total income, and a senior analyst from KPMG said that any club spending more than 75% of income couldn't survive in the long term, although some, including us, have survived.

You also say the Women's game only survives because inter company loans. I thought it was quite interesting in the latest Deloitte figures Bayern were in the top 3 and Liverpool were the highest Premier League club.

According to the Liverpool Echo, Liverpool Football Club benefitted hugely from the Taylor Swift concerts. I am sure TFG will follow that route with revenue coming from non-football activities.

Of course all most fans are interested in is who are we buying next, even the loss of points due to PSR transgressions doesn't seem to dampen fans desire to spend money we haven't got.

As you say 50% of Premier League clubs are American owned which I don't think is good for our game.

David West
7 Posted 23/01/2026 at 13:00:16
The PSR, SCR or whatever form it takes is the thing that will ruin football, just a mechanism to let these bigger brands in the game get bigger.

There should be a way where, say, teams like Everton, Aston Villa or Newcastle can spend to bridge the gap or we are just left with these teams who already have the huge revenue, continuing to be able to take the best players, with the rest just basically developing players for these richer sides.

It's inevitable I think that the rich clubs eventually just get so big and the gap so large, that the competition of the Premier League suffers, fans get bored of watching the same teams continuing to dominate, until we are left with a La Liga style, where only 1 or 2 clubs ever win.

Raymond Fox
8 Posted 23/01/2026 at 14:22:29
David @ 7, I agree. I'm sorry to say as things stand the Premier League is not a fair contest. Our only chance is to have a scouting system that is second to none.

We are not allowed to buy the most expensive players so we have to find the gems before they become stars.

That's a lot easier said than done but, as the rules are now, I can't see any other way.

John Pickles
9 Posted 23/01/2026 at 15:13:54
While only the wealthiest few at the top are the only ones the powers that be listen to, nothing will change, and it will remain a 'sport' in name only.

Fairness? Start with a Europe-wide spending cap, transfers and salary, based on each league's average, slowly phased in over 5-10 seasons.

Ged Simpson
10 Posted 23/01/2026 at 15:18:27
Most clubs just there to make up the numbers (us included) and give the Top 6 someone to play. The Premier League would argue that rules stopping overspending are vital to continue protection of big investor money and ensure those investors can rely on big TV money in Europe. The rest of us can have a little cup every 20-30 years.

But seems no different to everyday life.

If you have a low income, borrowing always has higher interest rates. The richer you are, the amounts available grow and costs of borrowing are less. This is how wealth is preserved and always has been, it seems.

Solution? I heard in US the teams that finish lowest have first choice of new talent. I may not have that right but could you imagine if that applied here or across Europe?

The outcry from the wealthy investors would be deafening. Smells too much of some kind of disgraceful socialist approach and we can't be having that!

John Williams
11 Posted 23/01/2026 at 17:11:52
I believe the Premier League should explain how Man City are able to afford the players they have brought in, in recent times. The biggest being Geuhi from Crystal Palace.

It seems a snip of a buy £20M but when you look at the other figures, ie, £300k per week wages, an undisclosed signing-on fee to the player and similar to the agents... a 5½-year contract.

Ged Simpson
12 Posted 23/01/2026 at 17:40:12
John 11: we could create a whole new website on what Citeh need to explain!
Mike Gaynes
13 Posted 23/01/2026 at 17:45:04
Paul, thank you for the head's up on this report. I will dive in over the weekend. I'll be particularly interested in the aspect of systemic risk.

Ged #10, you are substantially correct. In the draft system of young talent inherent to all US professional sports, the worst teams generally get the highest draft picks, although in most leagues they get entry into a draft lottery designed to reduce the chances of teams "tanking" or losing deliberately to get better picks. Draft choices are also salable assets for player trades.

Brian #6, some good cogent points in terms of fan expectations at clubs like Everton, and of our new stadium's potential for revenue generation (which will, BTW, be considered football-related revenue for SCR purposes).

You point out that Everton have survived a high wage bill over the years, but I have to believe we might be facing doom now had we not been bought out. How close was Moshiri to spiralling down the drain before the TFG deal was struck? How screwed would we be now if he'd sold out to the fraudsters at 777 Partners?

Also, under TFG the club has achieved both stabilized finances and a solid midtable position, so I'm wondering what your objection is to American ownership in the Premier League? What nation's billionaires would you prefer to see taking charge of Premier League clubs?

Mark Murphy
14 Posted 23/01/2026 at 18:12:16
Not the only good news today!

Dewsbury-Hall, Branthwaite and Alcaraz are all back in training.

And Fernabache have made an official approach for Beto.
(If the latter happens I assume we're in for another striker)

Mike Gaynes
15 Posted 23/01/2026 at 18:30:02
Murph, I'm reading that it may be a swap deal for Youssef En-Nesyri, the Moroccan international, whom Everton was reported pursuing a couple of weeks ago.
Ian Bennett
16 Posted 23/01/2026 at 19:02:21
I'd take Mateta from Palace, if Beto is going.
David West
17 Posted 23/01/2026 at 19:06:16
Ged @10.

Yes, the draft system keeps the competition fresh, it avoids the total domination by a single team over a long period too. I don't think it could work here in football. With the college systems they have in the US versus the total reliance of the transfer trickle down the pyramid here.

Some type of spending cap is the only real leveller, with the cap getting smaller the higher you finish in the league the previous year, would create a much healthier competition, but why would Man Utd, Liverpool, Madrid, PSG or Arsenal vote for that when they know they have a huge advantage the way it is?

It seems the people running football are so shortsighted and just chasing the £££ that they are operating an opposite system, designed to stifle competition for the short-term gain.

Well who gains when the Premier League eventually just gets boring, doesn't it make sense to help teams that could be a future Bayern Munich, Barcelona or Real Madrid?

Look at Chelsea and Man City, no matter what we think of how they have got to where they are, without these, the extra competition of them in the Premier League, it would be a three-horse race every year, between Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal.

More big teams means more competitive matches, more interest, more viewers, and more £££££. We are heading to point where it's impossible to bridge the gap, how can they see this to be good for the game, fair, and in the best interest of competition?

Kevin Molloy
18 Posted 23/01/2026 at 19:14:35
Casemiro has cost Man Utd £119M since he arrived.

Why can't we get bargains like that???

Paul Griffiths
19 Posted 23/01/2026 at 19:27:28
Mike Gaynes 13 (unlucky for some): Brian: 'I'm wondering what your objection is to American ownership in the Premier League. What nation's billionaires would you prefer to see taking charge of Premier League clubs?

Always a good idea to read posts fully and properly before you comment, so that you do not misrepresent in this case Brian and put words in his mouth that he did not say.

Brian did not object to 'American ownership in the Premier League', as you lecture him.

What he in fact said was this: 'As you say 50% of Premier League clubs are American owned which I don't think is good for our game'.

Quite different really, don't you think? So, why did you decide to misrepresent him?

I completely agree with Brian.

Paul Griffiths
20 Posted 23/01/2026 at 19:29:43
Ian (19): Mateta is out of our league.

Juventus is one option, I hear.

Ged Simpson
21 Posted 23/01/2026 at 19:46:12
David 20.

I like your idea of spending cap based on previous season positions.

Ian Bennett
22 Posted 23/01/2026 at 20:15:33
Put £45M on the table, and see if the Italians can match it.

There are offer of a £2M loan fee, suggests not.

David West
23 Posted 23/01/2026 at 20:40:54
Ged @24.

If only I had £4B in the bank, so I had some influence!!
Ged Simpson
24 Posted 23/01/2026 at 21:00:36
After Christmas and New year, I wish I had £4!
David West
25 Posted 23/01/2026 at 21:07:37
Ohh Ged you and me both, I don't even have any influence in our house mate !
Mark Murphy
26 Posted 23/01/2026 at 21:14:39
Interesting MG.

I'd assumed the En-Nesyri deal had been blown away by our cold English winter winds.

David West
27 Posted 23/01/2026 at 21:24:33
What MK points to is 100% true.

No club or business would post £100M profit, knowing that £100M could be spent on an asset (player) rather than let the tax man take what, 40%?

It's why many of these billionaires don't actually look like they are making money, they reinvest before it can be taxed.

Mike Gaynes
28 Posted 23/01/2026 at 22:21:20
Murph #26, haha, that might be the reason that En-Nesyri is rumored to be uninterested!

I assume Turkey is a good deal warmer in the winter.

Laurie Hartley
29 Posted 24/01/2026 at 01:25:15
This article and Michael's comment about money laundering has struck a nerve with me. We talk about billionaires, £30M transfers, and £300k a week contracts and yet 1 in 5 people in Britain are living in poverty, and 9 million people die of starvation each year.

Poverty in Britain

World Food Programme

Mark Murphy
32 Posted 24/01/2026 at 07:21:49
Mike, it was absolutely lashing it down the other night when Villa played... but yes, it's a little warmer (but not tropically so) than the UK.

He's allegedly said he'll never play in a cold climate.

John Collins
33 Posted 24/01/2026 at 08:57:26
Laurie,

100% correct mate.

Ged Simpson
34 Posted 24/01/2026 at 09:07:13
Exactly Laurie 29.

The madness is so acute many (inc me) may just say "this is a football site" after weaving through the betting ads, profit/loss reports and transfer rumours to get back to arguing if JP commands his box!

Dave Abrahams
35 Posted 24/01/2026 at 09:57:07
Laurie (29),

As Ghandi the great Indian pacifist said, “There is plenty enough food to feed the hungry but not the greedy" and I think most of us know that — much wants more.

Tony Abrahams
36 Posted 24/01/2026 at 11:45:43
Sickening to read about Casemiro costing £119M, which will mostly have been spent on his wages, and then read about the amount of people that are suffering from hunger in the year 2026.

Alan McGuffog
37 Posted 24/01/2026 at 12:58:53
Istanbul can be brass monkeys in winter.
Laurie Hartley
38 Posted 24/01/2026 at 22:46:36
John, Ged, Dave, & Tony. I was thinking about this last night.

It would be remiss of me not to say that fortunately there are many, many good hearted people in the world and they do make a difference.


Eric Myles
39 Posted 26/01/2026 at 04:47:14
True Alan #37, and much of Europe has snow and cold in the winter so he'd better stay clear of there. It even snows in Texas!
Eric Myles
40 Posted 26/01/2026 at 05:02:51
I think that the most likely driver for player wage reduction is the fans.

These inflated wages are paid for by Sky and other broadcaster deals so if fans stop buying the packages they're not able to make increasingly large bids.

A lot of premiership clubs have their own TV channel now and I would rather pay Everton to watch our games than Sky. OK, I know our channel is crap but if it was done professionally it could be a good revenue stream. I reckon this is one reason, maybe a main one, that TFG have bought us, future potential.

I also think that it was behind the redistribution of the domestic revenue rights to the already wealthy clubs, to keep them from breaking away from the broadcast deals.

It seems many fans can't, or won't, pay for Sky, that's why FiresticksRus do a great trade, and with the closing of pubs, another main revenue stream for broadcasters, the gravy train could be hopefully pulling into it's last stop. Could explain why they're trying to milk as much as possible from the fans now?

Ian Bennett
41 Posted 26/01/2026 at 08:08:43
Its early, and I need a coffee. But here are some numbers off the top of my head. Hopefully tight.

The Premier league doesn't need Sky or any other provider. It could easily run its own subscription service UK or globally, and make even more money.

Think of the sky cost, and think how much the clubs actually get.

£2.8bn tv payment a year is £233m a month. At £10 a pop that's 23m viewers needed a month to equate the same economics without advertising or costs. The weekly tv audience for Premier league is 1.89 billion. Not far of 82 times bigger.

Lets say clubs increase there tv revenue 10 times only. Instead of £130m, thats £1.3bn a season.

You don't need to be genius to work out why US investors are interested. When the above happens, and it will, the Premier league wages and impact on the European champions league will be huge. It's why the European clubs are shitting themselves.


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