That three-week break back in late March and early April looks more and more like it could have been the death knell for Everton’s European ambitions this season.
But it didn’t have to be.
Momentum from the dominant 3-0 victory over Chelsea seemed to ebb away, and Everton have looked rusty since returning to action on 12 April.
But the other teams have had to deal with it too, so there’s no excuse.
The Comeback and then the Climbdown
On Monday, Everton demonstrated that they still have it in them. They stuck in the game against Manchester City and then in the second half, and this is no hyperbole, absolutely deserved to go on and win that match.
That they didn’t is down to a combination of factors. First off, poor defending. Michael Keane and James Tarkowski were shambolic for Erling Haaland’s goal, which came straight from the restart after Thierno Barry had made it 3-1, when Man City’s players were on the floor and staring abjectly at the heavens.
That goal cut the celebratory mood and instead led to nervousness, which carried over into an inexplicably long period of stoppage time... and we all know what happened then.
There were other factors, too though. Bad luck and dreadful officiating played their part.
Poor decision-making from Carlos Alcaraz, who showed why he is so far away from a player like Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall when it comes to composure on the ball. Poor finishing from Iliman Ndiaye, who missed several golden chances.
Dreadful officiating comes into play when the referee and VAR somehow determine that, at 3-2 up, Everton shouldn’t have been awarded a penalty for a blatant foul on Merlin öhl by Bernardo Silva.
Regression
Perhaps the biggest reason of all, though, is regression.
Opta posted this stat on X: Everton are the first team in Premier League history to concede a result-altering goal in the 90th minute or later in three consecutive matches.
And while that is a horrific record to have, the data Gods do sometimes have a way of showing their hand.
Teams over- and under-perform their underlying metrics across the course of a campaign. Sometimes, they manage to get through the entire season without it levelling out. But eventually, usually, it catches up with you somewhat.
And this is what we’re starting to see now.
According to Opta Analyst, Everton have accrued 40.2 ‘expected points’. Essentially, their underlying metrics suggest they should be hovering around 14th — some 12 points off the Top 6.
But these numbers must always be taken into context. Chelsea, for example, have amassed 56.4 expected points, which is the third-best in the league, and there is no way Chelsea have been the third-best team this season.
But perhaps the biggest mark of Everton’s overperformance comes when looking at the expected Goals Against (xGA) figure.
Everton have conceded 41 times from 50.5 xGA. That 9.5 overperformance is the biggest in the Premier League, ahead of Man City’s 7.5. So the Toffees have not really been brilliant defensively when it comes to keeping it tight, but have managed to concede fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they have given up.
Ultimately though, when regression strikes, you can get results like Monday, or against West Ham and Liverpool. When you’re on the wrong end of the fine margins.
Doku the Danger Man
Jeremy Doku had very little right to score either of the goals he did, but he is a quality player and turned low xG chances into pinpoint finishes of the highest calibre.
The irony is, Everton finished Monday’s match with 2.72 xG, their second-highest mark of the season, behind Bournemouth at home in February. The Toffees lost that one.
In fact, Everton also won the ‘xG battle’ against West Ham, as well.
Everton have been getting better going forward as the season has gone on. From that Bournemouth game onwards, David Moyes’s men have created the higher xG in 6 of 10 matches.
But then going the other way, the regression has struck — the chances Everton’s defence have given up have started to bite them, whereas earlier in the campaign they were getting away with it.
Re-living it when I close my eyes, that Doku goal might just have floored me. It certainly caused a sleepless night.
Taking a step back, this kind of near-miss is much easier to deal with than the existential dread that came when results would go against Everton in the relegation battles of years gone by, but it still hurts, even if in just a different way.
Everton deserved to get the points for that second-half performance — it was a display worthy of propelling them right back to the front of the European race.
They are still not out of it, which makes it worse in a way, as the hope remains, but it’s really beginning to feel like a case of what might have been... and, when all is said and done, regression to the mean is possibly what’s going to prove ever so costly.
All stats from Opta Analyst
Reader Comments (66)
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2 Posted 06/05/2026 at 11:08:01
For all Grealish's faults, he could take the ball, buy a foul, and run the clock down. It needs that level of professionalism, not panic or stupidity.
I've revised my opinion a bit on the Pickford corner, as all keepers are struggling on the flat delivery, and corner wrestling contest. Not saying he is perfect, but I was surprised how Donnaruma was done vs O'Brien. 6ft-7in Italian international.
3 Posted 06/05/2026 at 11:12:46
He said it's not by accident, top teams score late goals on a regular basis. Lesser teams concede late goals, lack of concentration or they think they have already won the game or taken a point. It's a mind-set.
Having said that, Liverpool have conceded late goals this season, but they got one over on us at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
4 Posted 06/05/2026 at 11:48:46
Is it a concentration issue? Fitness? Arrogance, thinking we've got games wrapped up?
Part of it has to be the weakness of the overall squad, combined with the manager's poor decision-making when it comes to substitutions, I guess.
5 Posted 06/05/2026 at 12:03:44
If we sold our back four in the summer, we'd get about £40M as a job lot. And that's cos Jake O'Brien is now worth £30M. And we were facing Doku and Haaland. So, you know, mistakes will be made.
It's gonna take a couple of years to bring the squad properly up to scratch.
6 Posted 06/05/2026 at 12:18:59
Tarkowski and Keane letting Haaland run straight through them. Alcaraz not letting the ball just go out of play. Not closing down Doku for his second.
Basics; nothing to do with how much you spend or quality of squad.
7 Posted 06/05/2026 at 12:51:47
Someone's getting a bargain buying Branthwaite for £10M.
Form an orderly queue!
8 Posted 06/05/2026 at 12:59:58
When you look back over the years, at times you would believe there was a curse on the club.
9 Posted 06/05/2026 at 13:25:27
For all his experience and despite being captain, I don't feel that Tarkowski leads on the pitch in terms of telling others to think, organise, waste time, manage the game etc. The Haaland goal was a perfect example.
The only one who seems to understand ball retention, slowing the game and the importance of retaining possession in key areas and at key times is Grealish.
10 Posted 06/05/2026 at 14:24:31
Let's put things in context, shall we? It's Premier League history so that already severely limits the possibilities of who could be the first for this. Mammoth amounts of added-on time are also relatively new which further restricts the field.
What about the relative calibre of the opposition and the fact these were games where both sides wouldn't give anything up until the final whistle?
Then how about factoring in that we are in the tail-end of the season when some players are likely to be really feeling it at the end of intense fixtures?
I'd have preferred 4 more points for sure but I'm not going to get hysterical about the exact timing of when the final goals were scored in three games.
11 Posted 06/05/2026 at 15:02:09
12 Posted 06/05/2026 at 15:04:54
But when you have players who aren't worth very much, the first thing to be sacrificed is an assumption the basics will be carried out.
13 Posted 06/05/2026 at 15:57:24
I would get shut of three of the back four to be honest. Four at a push.
14 Posted 07/05/2026 at 12:17:22
Come on, Davy, you can do it. You're the Moyesiah remember.
15 Posted 07/05/2026 at 13:43:49
And here you are moaning about the manager after we were seconds away from beating the Champions elect.
16 Posted 07/05/2026 at 14:17:31
Losing two nil leads in successive games, would have definitely contributed to his decision to seemingly start concentrating completely on defending, but I think you could already see that the club had taken it's toll on him by the time last season started. I forgot he got to 48 points without the points deduction.
Let's face it, the only really memorable thing about that season was the win against Liverpool, and yet some people are now saying that we are doing great, and have had a much better season this time around.
17 Posted 07/05/2026 at 14:21:58
We have Keane, O'Brien, Beto, Garner -- all a magnitude better under Moyes. Excellent signings like Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish, and Röhl, and the prospect of adding two excellent fullbacks in the summer.
Even Barry is starting to slot.
18 Posted 07/05/2026 at 14:46:54
Not in the points department, Kevin. He didn't beat City and they are not the Champions elect.
19 Posted 07/05/2026 at 15:23:16
I think if you polled a thousand Evertonians and asked "Is it better now, or then?" none of them would say "It was better then".
20 Posted 07/05/2026 at 15:28:59
"How much better?" -- That is the question, Kevin.
21 Posted 07/05/2026 at 15:41:33
No question we've had a frustrating falling off, but our two best players have been out for most of the season.
I don't think anybody would have given this team much of a chance if we'd been told we'd have to have Tarkowsky and Keane as our centre-back pairing all season.
22 Posted 07/05/2026 at 15:50:03
Could be in the running to drop below Leeds in two weeks time. Just to add some balance.
23 Posted 07/05/2026 at 16:04:20
24 Posted 07/05/2026 at 16:33:24
If we had somehow got 6th, especially if it was a Champions League spot, it would be amazing and Moyes should be in the running for Manager of the Season.
25 Posted 07/05/2026 at 16:36:12
So much more could have been achieved if we had had a go in a sub-standard league.
26 Posted 07/05/2026 at 16:41:34
But I suppose, as we finished 13th last year and then had the 13th highest spend, a case could be made for it being acceptable. Just not by me.
27 Posted 07/05/2026 at 17:02:01
But, but, he was so...
28 Posted 07/05/2026 at 17:24:31
As we were in the running for the Champions League in April, it doesn't really much matter where we finish in Moyes's first season after taking over a relegation side.
It's clear that progress is being made, that's good enough for me at this stage in our development.
29 Posted 07/05/2026 at 17:48:08
What else, beating a Chelsea team that have been getting battered by everyone?
Villa away was good, but other than Forest, I can't off the top of my head, a team who Everton have done the double against?
30 Posted 07/05/2026 at 18:08:12
As we were in the running for the Champions League in April, it doesn't really much matter where we finish. "
I can't think of a suitable, polite, answer, Kevin.
31 Posted 07/05/2026 at 18:27:14
As Howard Kendall said in 1985, "This didn't happen overnight, it took 4 years to build this". Or Alex Ferguson, who didn't win a carrot for 5 years.
So I'm not going to freak out with a disappointing May if the previous 8 months have been very encouraging. And when I say 'very encouraging', I'm referring to having the best away record in the Premier League for much of that time.
32 Posted 07/05/2026 at 18:45:02
We've won away to half the current Top 6 this season. Is that 'memorable'?
33 Posted 07/05/2026 at 18:59:37
And what's with the 'only win all season' qualification?
34 Posted 07/05/2026 at 19:13:42
What teams have you managed, Bud?
35 Posted 07/05/2026 at 19:24:51
36 Posted 07/05/2026 at 19:32:51
Fulham, mate.
And Palace, come Sunday.
37 Posted 07/05/2026 at 20:38:52
At best, we're 5th or 6th and probably lower now after our recent Moyesiac falling off to the end of the season.
38 Posted 07/05/2026 at 20:44:43
From the moment he joined in January 2025 up until I believe the Brentford game, he had the best win away record in the Premier League. That's over like 16 months.
39 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:11:02
The away form has been very encouraging, Grant, but because of our home form, it hasnt really made much of a difference points wise to the two previous seasons, even though some people continue to say we have been battling against relegation for years.
I could probably count the really good performances Ive seen this season on one hand, which actually might be an improvement on the last few seasons....
Taking away the Chelsea game, when everyone got excited (looking back, Chelseas form was absolutely horrendous), I cant remember one home game in 2026 which got the fans excited until the other night.
Its backward and forward arguments, and for every person who is happy, Im sure theres another who sees it a little bit differently and might even be a little disappointed because, with seven games left, the season was looking like it promised a lot more.
40 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:16:26
We've had to play with a low block the whole time, and no attacking full-backs. It's going to improve once we get the full-backs in. Moyes knows how to win at home, his whole career has been based on strong home form.
I really don't know why everyone is getting too excited with what the eventual Premier League position is. It could go up or down about 8 places, depending on our and other results. If we luckily finish 7th, it doesn't mean we're a much better side than if we unluckily finish 13th.
I look at things in the round: wwe look set to have a strong side next season. We're in a transitional phase, we need the squad to be improved incrementally, and I think that's what we'll get.
41 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:24:02
42 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:26:07
I think we would have won more home games if we had played with a bit more adventure in some games, but we are going over old ground, because that low block has worked away from home!
43 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:29:13
We are stronger than we have been for a long time and have posters on this site moaning that we now look like we will miss out on European football.
Pre-season, most of us would have said that mid-table security for a season was an improvement.
Over the summer, we will see more changes of personnel. Some will bemoan that we don't sign the likes of Lionel Messi. Get real. All we need to ensure is that each signing is better than the starting or cover player they are replacing.
The same level of incremental improvement will give us a realistic chance of a Top 8 campaign next year. I am not advocating support for mediocrity. I am advocating support for realistic targets that will see us back as contenders in 2 or 3 years time.
44 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:29:27
The following season, we were back in the Bottom 6. And then in his third season we finished 4th.
Progress isn't, as Kevin alludes, necessarily linear.
(The exact seasons and the positions in which Everton finished have been deliberately changed to protect the MOB!)
45 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:42:50
Mentalty issues? It can't be down to tiredness.
46 Posted 07/05/2026 at 22:02:14
Firstly, we have made recognisable improvement from the last few seasons; we have a core group of players that are good enough to play in European competitions; and lastly, we are the nation's basket-case club no more.
47 Posted 07/05/2026 at 23:35:36
Pretty boring but pretty accurate
48 Posted 08/05/2026 at 11:43:41
That means if Moyes doesn't finish in the top 8 he'd have failed based on his own previous high standards? (not too dissimilar circumstances to his first stint). Tbh, if he doesn't finish in the top 8 I'd be very disappointed as that's what a lot of us less favourable towards Moyes would have expected at the start of the season.
Have we progressed, yes in some respects but no in terms of youth development and style of play.
Have we progressed on what Moyes did when he first took over from Dyche, I'd argue we have regressed a bit.
We're we ever seriously in for champions league positions. NO! Read back comments if you like, but lots of us predicted the Moyes unravelling, because its not like he doesn't have previous.
BTW, one manager lots of us have spoken about - Glasner - has reached yet another final despite being dealt a far worse hand than our manager. Finding it hard in the league but he still found time to think about trying to win something. Oh and they can still finish above champions league chasing Everton btw.
Now to opta stats, they are fine until you realise people make mistakes, or have moments of brilliance. One moment can defy all statistics. Just ask Stephen Gerrard.
49 Posted 08/05/2026 at 12:01:29
After that opening game I remember Kevin Campbell, coming out and saying that he would take 17th place right now, and because we had just sold Wayne Rooney, and hadnt really signed any players during that summer, then I think most people felt the same way.
Moyes, changed the system and then we beat a few of the promoted teams, got a bit of confidence and never really looked back, and yet now, at a time that some of us can see that we have got a few very good players in our squad, and are playing in front of nearly 50.000 Evertonians, every other week, in a fantastic new stadium, why do so many people just keep going on about STABILITY?
Its time to wake up start demanding more and realise what Everton can become once again, imvho!!
50 Posted 08/05/2026 at 12:42:49
Let's not do that. Let's at least give this manager a fair crack of the whip. ie more than a year.
51 Posted 08/05/2026 at 13:41:33
Sounds more like treading water to me.
52 Posted 08/05/2026 at 13:51:42
Indoctrinated fans with the fear of relegation as opposed to the accepted stability.
He has made no progress on the points total of Dyche to date.
53 Posted 08/05/2026 at 21:23:36
I agree I don't think we were ever serious contenders for the Champions League.
Take your own advice and read back the comments and you'll see that the people bigging up our Champions League hopes were mainly the MOB. They were hyping the expectation levels to use as a stick with which to beat the manager.
Not sure Moyes unravelled. I just think we had a difficult run of fixtures and just weren't good enough.
54 Posted 08/05/2026 at 21:29:09
That was also the season I discovered ToffeeWeb and it's been great company ever since.
55 Posted 08/05/2026 at 21:54:38
Surely you could argue that Kevin, was also hyping the manager, to make it sound like he wasnt getting enough credit for the job he was doing?
We have come up short but we have also just lost five points, because we have started conceding last minute goals in our last three games, so if Everton dont get into Europe, because of this then, does this also mean it was because we simply werent good enough, and the manager has still done a fantastic job?
56 Posted 08/05/2026 at 22:09:15
Being in the running and being serious contenders are very different arguments but I'm sure Kevin can speak for himself.
Not sure many people are claiming Moyes has done a fantastic job or I'm missing more than I think on ToffeeWeb.
57 Posted 08/05/2026 at 22:26:10
"The Mob" Brendan?
58 Posted 08/05/2026 at 22:55:01
Obviously not The MOB
59 Posted 08/05/2026 at 23:02:01
Given your opinion on the TW MOB, they could be on a par.
60 Posted 08/05/2026 at 23:09:57
61 Posted 08/05/2026 at 23:21:36
The ToffeeWeb MOB can hardly land a punch... a Saint Valentine's Day mob like massacre... doubt I'll see it on these pages.
62 Posted 08/05/2026 at 23:39:03
Take one for the gaffer!
63 Posted 08/05/2026 at 00:38:27
We were the drowning man about to go under for the final time until we got a Moyes-shaped rescue boat.
64 Posted 09/05/2026 at 03:12:52
Freidkin, be warned: if you're the latter, you will not get decades of ostensible "support".
Us lot, the fans upon which your fortune depends, have been punished enough by bogus owners, for decades, and you should have known that before you acquired us.
Make a statement this Summer, with signings and sales.
65 Posted 09/05/2026 at 09:00:11
I see quite a few people giving Moyes - stick, on this website Brendan, and although Im not going to go back and look at the posts, I dont think many people are using the teams failure to qualify for the champions league, as a stick to beat up our manager?
If we dont qualify for Europe, after putting ourselves in such a great position, then I think a lot of the people who dont really like the manager, will blame him and say he has failed, but lets see how the season finishes first, is what Id say.
66 Posted 09/05/2026 at 09:05:07
He refused to go for it imo.
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1 Posted 06/05/2026 at 11:01:09